This thread is for sports betting information & money mangement

Question

OK, everybody is to read n learn and chip in with info . we discussand learn better ways to beat the bookie this is an education thread will we will get and learn and grow from it let&#x27;s talk to you then be friends and remember love is the key to everything.I will be posting good information later tonight as I&#x27;m in the stock market and tied up to this time.

CapperSharp · Answer

OK, everybody is to read n learn and chip in with info . we discussand learn better ways to beat the bookie this is an education thread will we will get and learn and grow from it let&#x27;s talk to you then be friends and remember love is the key to everything.I will be posting good information later tonight as I&#x27;m in the stock market and tied up to this time.

CapperSharp · Answer

please excuse the typos at times I&#x27;m voice typing and it messes up sometimes

smarterthanyou · Answer

stfu--we see all this about three times a year on this site

mbialowas · Answer

Cool story bro..........Get off the ddrugs son

warcameagle56 · Answer

I&#x27;m always open to other ideas.

CapperSharp · Answer

there&#x27;s a lot of negative information from people who don&#x27;t know much about sports and who think they know it all the more I learn the less I know too many of those people on here who don&#x27;t make any money betting in their mind they imagine there a wise guy sharp but in reality there just a jokeI think most of you need to learn to grow up and act like an adult and handle your business and you might make some money our stay in your stupid mind in your stupid comments in just leave this thread alone this thread is for people who understand that they can always learn and grow and become better losers don&#x27;t understand this language because they know everything and that&#x27;s why they&#x27;re broke living at moms house smoking crack

CapperSharp · Answer

your a loosed!!

CapperSharp · Answer

A Simple Proposition - Would You Take It?

If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, you'd be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.

Now let's say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn't re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?/p>

You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will come close to 55% winners - it's a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing. Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, you'd be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.

Yet, in sports betting, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet! Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. They don't think twice about laying half of the

stration...

A Tale Of Two Sports Bettors

Risky John and Conservative Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). Risky John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Conservative Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. Risky John now had a $1720 bankroll while Conservative Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? Risky John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.

But then came weeks 3 and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Conservative Bob lost $235 while Risky John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. Risky John felt the losing couldn't possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.

Guess what? Risky John was now virtually wiped out - down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.

What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Conservative Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.

CapperSharp · Answer

NFL Football Betting BasicsUse key angles to identify hidden pro football betting opportunities and fatten your bank rollAngle #1: The ReboundThis is an angle that&#x27;s been around for a long time in all sports. Teams that look to be in bad recent form are a good bet to rebound in their next game. In this case, we are looking for teams that lost badly in their last game. Badly is defined as losing against the spread by 10 or more points.Next, we are looking for our down and out team to be playing a team that is flying high. Flying high is defined as a team that won against the spread by ten points or more. We are betting on the team that lost badly last week to rebound this week. Our minimum &#x27;spread" in this case would be 20 (one lost against the spread by 10, while the other covered by 10). The bigger the &#x27;spread," the better the wagering opportunity. Just remember, we are not talking about margins of victory or defeat here. Rather, we are talking about margins by which the spread was either covered, or not covered.Angle #2: The Anti-Wager:Here, we are looking for teams that either won or lost big last week without regard to the point spread. We are looking to bet against teams the won big if they are favored this week. We are also looking to bet for teams that lost in blowout fashion should they be the underdogs this week. An especially appealing wager using this angle would be to play a team that got blown out as a favorite last week, and is an underdog this week.The beauty of this wager is that it brings a lot of value, for the betting public (a) loves favorites, and (b) it goes against what the masses will logically (and wrongly) be thinking.Angle #3: Give the Offense a RestThe public loves to bet on high scoring offenses. We are going to bet against any team with an offense that has racked up big yardage and point totals for two consecutive weeks if they are favored in their next game. Teams in this situation have proven, for a variety of reasons, that they will eventually let down. We want to exploit the letdown.Angle #4: Good Defenses Beat Good OffensesAs sports investors, we are interested in winning. Sometimes, winning isn&#x27;t pretty. Pretty teams with good offenses are very fun to watch. Personally, I would rather win that be entertained. When a good offense meets up with a good defense, play the defense every time.Angle #5: The Streak RuleNo, we aren&#x27;t referring to college pranks here. We are talking about teams that are streaking in either a good or a bad way. This is a very simple angle: Bet against teams that have won three in a row, and bet for teams that have lost three in a row. Underdogs simply bring so much value to the table that it is a no-brainer to play them whenever

CapperSharp · Answer

#6I don&#x27;t view revenge games in pro football the same as I do for college football. Pro football players should be able to be motivated without having to rely on emotional factors such as revenge. My advice here is to leave revenge as a college angle.Angle #7: The Double WhammyThis is an angle that applies very well to all sports betting. Look for teams that start their season with a long undefeated streak. In pro football, we would be looking for about 6-0, or so, but the total could be less. Once the undefeated team loses, bet against them in their next game. Sometimes teams lose because the have one bad game. Sometimes they lose because the other team is just better. Often, however, these teams lose because they are going out of sync for a period of time, or just haven&#x27;t got the first loss out of their heads. At any rate, this is one of the oldest, and most profitable angles in sports betting and should be used whenever possible.Angle #8: The Home UnderdogThis could be the most well known sports betting angle of all time. Did you know, however, that just betting home underdogs is really a 50-50 proposition? It&#x27;s true. A better home &#x27;dog angle is to wait until a team is home for the second consecutive week and lost the previous home game. Of course, they will need to be an underdog this week to be a play under this angle.Angle #9: Pre-Season FootballHere is a very solid football angle: Do not wager on pre-season football. Try another sport (baseball is in full swing) and wait for regular season opportunities when you know who is going to play and for how long. Please, don&#x27;t waste your money.Angle #10: The SpoilerTeams that are out of the playoffs love to play the spoiler. The common public theory is that teams in must-win games will rise to the occasion over lowly non-contenders who are playing for nothing. I prefer to think the opposite way. Look for teams with nothing to lose. They play more relaxed and often come out gunning. I actually love watching these games because teams out of contention tend to pull out all the stops in an effort to pull of an upset.Angle #11: New Coach/Road RuinThe learning curve for NFL teams in general, and quarterbacks in particular, is huge when a new coach has been hired. Every coach or coordinator employs a unique offense. Unless a QB has played in a similar offense, he must basically learn his position anew. This spells disaster when teams are going on the road for the first time, and second time and third time... If a new coach has a rookie QB starting for him, well, they might not cover a road point spread all year long! This makes sports betting fun. If you&#x27;re not sure what I mean, just think of David Carr in his rookie season with Houston!!!!

frogs38 · Answer

Put entire bankroll on rams -4.5. Profit

budwiser · Answer

You are a sharp capper no doubt. Apprecaite your years of experience. A lot of that I've been there, done that.

One thing about bankroll, you can't do that. I don't believe in Kelly.

You gave the situation of Risky John and Conservative Bob. I take Risky John and here's why:
-Unless you're playing online, you're paying for travel expenses. you can't keep traveling all the time.
-Unless you have unlimited time, spending time watching 10 games versus 1 makes no sense.
-I'd rather put $ on one BIG game than 10. I'd rather focus on 2 teams, than 20. Squares are the ones who put $ on 10 NFL games a week.

Makes sense, right?

Luckysily · Answer

I appreciate your powerful knowledge. Best of luck to us!

Second2-Numbers · Answer

This&#x27;s  copy &amp; paste from :https://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/pro_football.asp

GunShard · Answer

Nice info.Let me share you my knowledge as well.My personal rules on sports betting:1. Money management. Bet less than 5% of your total current bankroll per bet. Be discipline.2. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be a compulsive gambler by betting because it&#x27;s your favorite team or for the action. Do your research.3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There&#x27;s no place for emotions in this profession. Be unbiased.4. Do not judge a team based on what they did last week.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd3A7ODxhTU5. Never bet on heavily juiced/vig lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.6. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.7. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww 8. Teasers should never pass through the zero.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ Maximize your odds by betting on 7 point teasers on sides.Ignore teasers that are 6 point, 6.5 point and on totals.Teasers and Parlays give the sportsbooks the most house edge.If you had to bet on one of these, it would be on the 7 point teaser.https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/appendix/10/https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-parlay/9. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games. Sportsbooks know this and favorites the home team."Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.11. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting on 2nd string teams is stupid because of the lack of game footage on mostly unknown players.12. Understand how to bet on underdogs ML and ATS:https://www.wagerminds.com/blog/nfl-handicapping/how-often-do-nfl-underdogs-win-outright-a-historical-analysis-by-spread-ranges-2496/13. If you are extremely compulsive, arrogant, drunk and biased. The best advice is to "Don&#x27;t Gamble".14. Learn from your mistakes. Most gamblers don&#x27;t learn from their mistakes. That&#x27;s why I made these gambling rules.

budwiser · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Second2-Numbers]  This&#x27;s  copy &amp; paste from :https://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/pro_football.asp  [/Quote]Maybe it&#x27;s that dude.  Maybe it&#x27;s a pretender.What I do know is much of what he said is true.  IMO.

CapperSharp · Answer

The Line: Rams -4,  Total: 40Line movement: St. Louis opened as a 3-point favorite at multiple Las Vegas sports books on Sunday, but the spread moved up from there. A day before the game, the Westgate and William Hill were dealing Rams -4.5, The Wynn was at -4 (-120), and MGM Resorts and CG Technology were at -4.    The total dropped from 40.5 to 40 at The Wynn and William Hill, and from 41 to 39.5 at the Westgate. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas,  visit our live odds page .Trends that matter: The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. &#x2026; The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. &#x2026; The UNDER is 21-5-1 in the Rams&#x2019; last 27 December games. &#x2026; The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.Hill paying dividends: Journeyman Rams quarterback Hill is 3-1 as a starter and could be 4-0 if not for a goal-line pick he threw at San Diego in the waning moments. In last week&#x2019;s win at Washington, Hill showed surprising agility when he scrambled to his right and fired a 41-yard strike to wide receiver Kenny Britt. Hill, 34, is 29-of-44 passing over his last two games, with five touchdowns (one rushing) and no turnovers.Arizona D bends but doesn&#x2019;t break: Arizona ranks just 17th in total defense (355.4 ypg) and 24th in yards per play (5.6), but third in points allowed (18.3). The Cardinals let opponents score touchdowns on just 42.9 percent of their red-zone opportunities, which ranks second in the NFL, and Arizona is tied for third with a plus-10 turnover margin. The D-line stepped up in the win over K.C. as Frostee Rucker registered two sacks and Calais Campbell one.Injuries that matter: Cardinals starting cornerback Antonio Cromartie (ankle) would have a better chance of suiting up if it wasn&#x2019;t a short weekSince the change to Shaun Hill, the Rams have really slowed the pace, looking to run the ball and control the clock even more than usual.  Their defense, meanwhile, has been stellar, holding three of their last four opponents to a touchdown or less.  Arizona&#x27;s scoring D has been excellent all season, resulting in a eight of their 13 games staying UNDER, with one push. I&#x27;m going UNDER the total on Thursday night.

budwiser · Answer

Good stuff as well....Good thread.

budwiser · Answer

Like i said, I don&#x27;t agree with the 5% rule, 2%, whatever, because of the time and $ it takes for me to travel.  I want less travel, larger $ on my one favorite game.  If you have 10 games, and the one you like you estimate has a 70% chance to win, why pick the other 9 with less than a 70% chance to win.As they say you have an advantage with the bookie in that you can pick your favorite game, not every game.  Bookie has to give out every game.

Doja45 · Answer

Not this f&amp;cking guy again... Nobody cares about your "rules to gambling" Odds are you&#x27;re just regurgitating some BS some older degenerate told you years ago... Guess what? It didnt work for him either.Now youre "that guy" Go find some young 21 year old who just started gambling to babble this nonsense to. Maybe he&#x27;ll be dumb enough to think you know what you&#x27;re talking about..... then again, he&#x27;ll probably think you&#x27;re full of sh!t as well

Second2-Numbers · Answer

...and for post # 20 . It came from here:  https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nfl/2014-12-10/cardinals-vs-rams-line-pick-point-spread-betting-odds-prediction-vegas?iadid=Nav_Sport_LINEMAKERS_3Cappershrap ? Oh well, we&#x27;ll know where it&#x27;s heading right ? Sports betting info ? Really ? sound like Free pick to me !

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