This thread is for sports betting information & money mangement

Posted: Dec. 11, 2014 - 9:13 AM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by CapperSharp:

NFL Football Betting Basics

Use key angles to identify hidden pro football betting opportunities and fatten your bank roll

Angle #1: The Rebound

This is an angle that's been around for a long time in all sports. Teams that look to be in bad recent form are a good bet to rebound in their next game. In this case, we are looking for teams that lost badly in their last game. Badly is defined as losing against the spread by 10 or more points.

Next, we are looking for our down and out team to be playing a team that is flying high. Flying high is defined as a team that won against the spread by ten points or more. We are betting on the team that lost badly last week to rebound this week. Our minimum 'spread" in this case would be 20 (one lost against the spread by 10, while the other covered by 10). The bigger the 'spread," the better the wagering opportunity. Just remember, we are not talking about margins of victory or defeat here. Rather, we are talking about margins by which the spread was either covered, or not covered.

Angle #2: The Anti-Wager:

Here, we are looking for teams that either won or lost big last week without regard to the point spread. We are looking to bet against teams the won big if they are favored this week. We are also looking to bet for teams that lost in blowout fashion should they be the underdogs this week. An especially appealing wager using this angle would be to play a team that got blown out as a favorite last week, and is an underdog this week.

The beauty of this wager is that it brings a lot of value, for the betting public (a) loves favorites, and (b) it goes against what the masses will logically (and wrongly) be thinking.

Angle #3: Give the Offense a Rest

The public loves to bet on high scoring offenses. We are going to bet against any team with an offense that has racked up big yardage and point totals for two consecutive weeks if they are favored in their next game. Teams in this situation have proven, for a variety of reasons, that they will eventually let down. We want to exploit the letdown.

Angle #4: Good Defenses Beat Good Offenses

As sports investors, we are interested in winning. Sometimes, winning isn't pretty. Pretty teams with good offenses are very fun to watch. Personally, I would rather win that be entertained. When a good offense meets up with a good defense, play the defense every time.

Angle #5: The Streak Rule

No, we aren't referring to college pranks here. We are talking about teams that are streaking in either a good or a bad way. This is a very simple angle: Bet against teams that have won three in a row, and bet for teams that have lost three in a row. Underdogs simply bring so much value to the table that it is a no-brainer to play them whenever

I didn't have time to read all of this.....do you have any picks in this convoluted hot mess?

Posted: Dec. 11, 2014 - 10:39 PM ET #31

Great Thread and info. Very valid points here. I view betting as a Sports Stock Market. Basicly the info posted was similar to picking stocks. I cant pick stocks only the guys in the know can. They have the leverage to drive things up and dump them only to bottom it all out and buy back in. Sports are the same way. As your scenerio suggests teams off bad beat vs team off a big win. Couple of weeks ago a poster got killed on an upset game. He posted he was quitting. Raiders got beat 52-0 that day. Another poster came in and told him not to do that to put all the money he had on the Raiders next week. Raiders beat SFO and when it was posted it was like he was joking. One trend or angle I have used in the past is taking team in first half and game off of a bye. Something happened this year as that is 11/21 this year. First 1/2 are the same. I keep track of every game..Favs Dogs Road Favs Road dogs...Another thing that has made good sense to me is live betting. You get a chance to see the teams on the field against each other instead of just stats. Most games a team will score first and that changes the odds so you buy into a better position than the original line on the game. NBA and NFL both seems like the team that wins the first half gets beat in the second half a majority of the time. The rest of this season I will be keeping track of points above and below spread more. I appreciate intelligent conversation and insight. Everyone has an opinion and a pick. Not many know why or can explain their stance with facts.

All Leagues
	WLT	Pct	Units	Rank
ATS	253-237-10	51.63%	-3850	11574
O/U	255-240-2	51.52%	-4500	11005
All Picks	508-477-12	51.57%	-8350	12817

All Leagues
	WLT	Pct	Units	Rank
ATS	253-237-10	51.63%	-3850	11574
O/U	255-240-2	51.52%	-4500	11005
All Picks	508-477-12	51.57%	-8350	12817

This thread is for sports betting information & money mangement

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