Those backing the Jets tonight, why do you think they’ll cover?

Team is a mess right now. Defense shaky, Rodger’s is a control freak, run game is meh. But yet it’s a one point spread. Is it bait from Vegas? You have to think the Bills are the better team. Why do you think the jets will cover? 

Then why line drop from -2.5 to -1 now? Jets got pounded for line to drop or is there injuries on Buffalo?

Allen took a huge shot to the head at the end of last weeks game...  I see Buffalo limiting his running tonight because which would have been a weapon for Buffalo.

And with Saleh being fired, teams play hard that first game.  Always like that.

@Interstellar

if you’re backing the Jets this evening it’s almost entirely based on the fired coach “bump”. I don’t know what the data is on this, but teams usually respond immediately after a new captain takes over the ship. in this case, interim coach and D Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is a great motivator and will at the very least have them fired up.  

jets won last two meetings at home vs bills 

Bills defense is bad, especially against the run. Even worse when you weigh that they played Jags/Miami who were getting blown out early due to their own mistakes and had to abandon the run. 

If Jets can run, Rodgers can get time, stay balanced, and control the offense. Jets defense is good, especially against the pass. If they get a lead and Bills have to play catchup, it favors the Jets. 

Haven't had time to dig any deeper than that

@Interstellar

 Play the OVER 40.. Safest investment..  Jets are not going to slow down the Bills offense and the Jets will get their points in to push it OVER ...

I think you’re right that’s the move 

@Interstellar

OVER 41 (-110) is worth a look, but don’t get too carried away. Again, like we mentioned in the moneyline section, wait to see if Cook and Shakir are active before proceeding. If Allen has all of his weapons, Buffalo could do a lot of the heavy lifting on its own.

@Mangowoman

 Someone posted something last week like 21-16 with new coach or close to that.

Road favorites went 8-0 ATS yesterday...Not saying the Bills cover but they would make it 9-0 tonight with a win..

IMO if you are a Bills backer now is the time to play them at -1...  IMO this is the bottom and may reflect the playing status of Cook and Shakir being questionable.. If both or either announce as playing ( I think Cooks plays) this line will go up a point  or  so..  Plus feel like Bills will get late action.. Line may end up 2 or 2.5 if both play with late action added in...JMO..

Bills averaging 15 points their last two games...Prime-time games tend to go under.

This thread proves to me…. Nobody knows what’s going to happen tonight with any certainty 

Jets have the best pass defense in the NFL and Buffalo is on their 3rd straight road game.

Every home dog yesterday lost SU and ATS. Actually every one this week if you include TNF. Rare that no home dogs cash in the NFL over an entire week.

I don't see Bills losing 3 straight on the road..  I would not take the Jets they are messed with coaching change

Bills banged up. Bills don’t have a true #1 Receiver and even he is banged up. Jets  motivated for interim coach, playing on Monday night in front of the home crowd for first place. Bills defense bad so I like the Jets to put up some points tonight. 

….So bills ML 

Week 6 and the division is so far from being decided that this game will have little to no implications down the road.

The Pats are a 3 win team.  The Dolphins have checked out and decided to play for a draft pick in 2025 leaving these two teams playing tonight as 1 & 2.

It stands to reason that a series split is on order.  Jets win tonight: means nothing in the standings.  They still have to travel to Buffalo.

Allen took a huge shot at the end of the Texans game last week.  You saw at the end of the game he was in la-la land.  Why push him tonight when the game can be made up down the road?

Say Allen was out tonight, what would be the spread?  -3.5/-4 Jets?  With Allen out, all the injuries/suspensions/lack of receivers, nobody would be talking the Bills today.

Allen being in the lineup skews the average Joes' perception of Buffalo having a great offense.  A) They don't have one even with Allen at 100% and B)  see A.  

I'd be leaning the Bills if Trubinsky got the start; at least you know what you're getting with him.  Check downs, and a lot of Cook.

But the game is always played on the field, not in the papers...

Vegas already knows/and KNEW about the whole Allen situation. And are prolly more informed and up to date. It's already in the line.

jets = better team 

@football_007

 Yes injuries in Buffalo 

@Interstellar

 Reverse line movement. Jets win. 

Teams are pretty decent against the spread after firing their headcoach mid-season, 9-2 in the last 11, 15-4 since 2014, according to ESPN. I imagine because most of the teams that do this don't like the coach much. But the Jets defense undoubtedly loved Saleh. Does this effect the trend of covering the spread after a coaching change mid-season?