Thursday Night Football - Niners / Seahawks early play....

49ers TT over 23.5 to me seems like the play to make in this game.

Still love this.

SF going to run all over Sea.

Brock purdy injury scares me but 49er should take care of business. Like the under as well

@vanzack

@vanzack

 bang on 

Vanz explaining the key word ‘run’.. Along with a dominant defense 

4 

3

b o l

p a l

kyle shanahan vs pete carroll is what this game will be....pete is 8-2 vs kyle. 9-2 after tomorrow. Without key players and a hobbling qb, watch pete come out with a victory in close one 

also whats gonna happen if McCaffrey tweaks an ankle....SF is gonna rely on purely him and the Defense. dont forget seattle has a pretty good offense. 

What have you been smoking?  The Seattle defense is terrible!  30th ranked scoring defense.  28th in opponents YYR.  They gave up almost 600 yards against the Raiders.

SF best away D by 50 YPP...gotta like that number and hope it holds.

@vanzack

 let's f***in go.

Alt line Niners -10 and I have them -6 in a parlay. Last four Niner victories were by 13+ points. 

VAN 

GL Van 

-3.25 ? 

Thanks everyone for the posts and banter.

The way I have it is pretty simple....  The worst rushing defense in the NFL against a team that is going to be run first and does it well.  If the Seahawks choose to shut down the run at all costs, it will take too many resources that will expose a simple passing game.  I really don't know what the Seahawks can do here.

On the other side - a regressing Seattle offense with a regressing Geno Smith against the best defense in the NFL in the trailing 6 weeks.

Anything can happen on any day in the NFL.  If they played 100 times, Seattle is going to win some of those.  I just cant make the story on a one off game to even consider taking the Seahawks here - which is very unusual for me - I almost always can make a case for the side I am betting against - I cant here.

GL all

This is a concept that I wish football bettors would adopt as mainstream.

When a line is on a key number like 3 (the biggest of all the key numbers in NFL), and it is heavily juiced one way or the other (in this case -120ish on the -3), I always split the bet between -3 -120ish and -3.5 evenish.  

So 50% of your bet is on -3, 50% on -3.5, at averaged juice.

This is -3.25.

 Absolutely.  Shrewd advice… 

Let's go!

@vanzack

 It really doesnt matter, 3 or 3.5 if you are on the wrong side.  The fact one would be even interested in SF in this spot, would indicate a very public and reckless approach to betting.  But to each his own, have fun with the dart game.  It begins and ends with the line. You often disregard it, or try to manipulate it.  Best o luck to ya sir.

Hang Broke