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Thursday Sep 6 2007-2008 NFL season opener pick

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Posted: #26
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #27
Makes a whole lotta sense.  BOL this season  
 
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Posted: #28
Thank you for doing all the homework Roberto (so I don't have to)! Great info as always! I think I'll play the %'s and tail you on this one...
 
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Posted: #29
Great call, these teams have plenty of time to prepare for each other.
I'll wait till tip off and wait for the total to creep a bit higher.


 
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Posted: #30
With you on this one.  Solid pick  Good Luck Roberto.
 
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Posted: #31
Best of Luck this season.
 
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Posted: #32
 
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Posted: #33
Great to see you primed for another fantastic season...
 
 
 
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Posted: #34
My first instincts was to play the under, but now I'm leaning towards the Colts to cover the spread. GL to all.
 
Captain
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Posted: #35

Alright fellow posters/ cappers...

The line has reached its zenith ...

53  is good enough for me...

ILL, phat03, brewster, Throw$Away, L8kersFan74

SlamDunk, jcpsaints, 96chey, Zox, Slingzz, FAT BOY SLIM. marfa, SportFanatic71, Stoner30, PernicusNUMERO2, Wizerguy, KOAJ, level99,

tuxman, collectNOW, kevO, kg2380, Kyle1111,  allsmiley2, Wizerguy, dl36

I appreciate it...
and hope you all have a killer season...

Zox...I only listed trends as my reason for this pick...

see above...

KOAJ...

A) This is a pick based on "totals" history on week 1

B) This is a pick based on a systems play that highlights results when two top offenses meet

C) This is a play based on recent history for both teams based on totals lines that are set this high

D) This is a play based on line value ( as it keeps moving up ) With the line moving off the 51-52 numbers leaving these types of results as wins for instance >>>                                                a  28-24 ...27-24...31-21...

If I try to cap this game , I may conclude that the OVER or no play is the correct play.

But history tells us otherwise , and I am content with playing the numbers game ...

If not ...there will be another scenario like this in the near future, but I like my chances on week 1

I do expect both coaches to try to establish a ground game , play keep away , and sustain drives...on this first regular season game. Hopefully with some clocked eating stalled drives along the way.

It might be like two heavyweights testing each other out for a few rounds ...If I'm right the first half will be under 24...

So....here is my official play >>>>>

 

Game : New Orleans @ Indianapolis

Pick :  UNDER 53  (  3 units  )

 

 

Best of luck to all on whatever you choose !!

 

 
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Posted: #36
Let's hope...atlhawks
...chillery   good luck with the Colts..if you take them
 
 

 
 
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Posted: #37
 
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Posted: #38
Thank you for the tips.  BOL
 
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Posted: #39
Roberto,
 
 
Solid contributions as always.As much as this looks like a shootout,you cite great statistical support for the UNDER.
 
Here's to another phenom campaign!
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #40
key numbers are very important...above 52 under is a nice play

although i tell you if i played the under...i would go to a movie. i dont know if i could watch this with an under pending
 
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Posted: #41
GL roberto!!!
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

key numbers are very important...above 52 under is a nice play

although i tell you if i played the under...i would go to a movie. i dont know if i could watch this with an under pending

So true!

 
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Posted: #43
i LOVE the under in this game
 
i got it today at 54 (- 115)
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45

Good Luck Roberto. You da man. Nice analysis it was a good read.

www.myspace.com/ameermillions11

 
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Posted: #46
Good idea on the analysis Roberto.  I took some of your principles and applied them to a similar set of parameters, and came to the same conclusion.
 
Here's my thread which menitons it:
 
 
Good luck to us this weekend!
 
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Posted: #47
Good luck Roberto!
I think Dungy and the Colts like to control the clock more now, instead of scoring real fast.
This total is based on last years teams and is extremely high for the Season opener.
The number keeps climbing too.
I agree with your pick. Under it is!
 
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Posted: #48
Under is the play.
 
GL this year.
 
 
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          Roberto = 

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