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Thursday Sep 6 2007-2008 NFL season opener pick

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone,
 
Interesting preseason for me
as I dug up great trends that I didn't feel
I took full advantage of .
This was a good trial run ...
and concluded that on weeks 1, 2 , 4
those trends have merit on their very own ...
Keep them in mind for next year....
 
 
 
2007 NFL preseason record :
 
9-7 ( + 17.3 units )
4-0 top plays
 
2006-2007 NFL Reg season record:
 
59-33  ( 64.1 % ) ( + 52.2 units )
 
POW : 7-4
POY: 2-0
 
MNF : 15-2 ( + additional  2-0 parlays )
 
I did cool off at end of LY going only 12-12 last 24
after a torrid start .
I also had a dropoff in total units won from prior year
as I managed to accumulate just short of 100 units then...
That being said , it was a good year.
MNF was golden for second straight year...
 
 
I want to wish you all a very successful NFL season !
 
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Now, for the first game >>>
 
Game :  New Orleans @ Indianapolis
current line : o/u >> 52/ 52.5
Pick : UNDER  ( 3 units )
 
 
 
official line when I secure it ...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Here is a good stat that applies to week 1 ...
and to this game
this is going back 10 years ...1996-2006
 
UNDERS have hit a clip of 31-13 ( 70.4 % ) when ....
total line is  <= 35   and   >= 45
(so 35 or less and 45 or more )
 
**********************************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Colts last 11 games in Week 1.
  • Under is 11-5 in Colts last 16 games on Turf.
  • Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games in Week 1.

    • Some results from last year's week 1 with lines higher than 45

    Indianapolis @ NY Giants                                                     O/U 47.5 ...Final score : Indi 26-21

    Denver @ St Louis                                                                 O/U 45.5 ...Final score: St Louis 18-10

    Cincinnati @ Kansas City                                                      O/U 48.5...Final score : Cincinnati 23-10

    **************************************************

     

       

     
    Captain
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    Posted: #4
    In addition I would like to highlight a system "totals" play
    It has not been updated to include the results from last year ...
     
    I applied  it twice ...going 1-1 ...last of which was this game >>>
     
     
     
    system play: ( again /not updated to include last year )
     
     
    Play Under - In any game involving 2 good offensive teams ( 23-27 PPG )
    Results thus far>>>
     
    53-23 ATS over last 5 seasons...68.8 %
    The average total posted in these games was 44.3
    The average total points scored in these games was 41.9
    The situation's record in 2005-2006 is 9-6
    In the last 3 seasons, the situation's record is 75-50
    Since 1983, the situation's record is 161-116
     
    Explanation: This is a totals System that proves how vulnerable the public can be, partcularly when 2 attractive offensive teams get together. As you can see, playing the under in games of this sort typically nets more than a 65 % winning percentage.
     
    Indianapolis finished the regular season last year averaging 26.7 points per game.
    New Orleans finished the regualr season last year averaging 25.8 points per game.
     
    Last year the line during regular season was set only once during Colts games above 50 ( 55 ) , a game in which Indi beat Cinci 34-16 ...
     
    The next highest totals line for Indi last year was set @ 49 when the Colts played @ Dallas losing 14-21
     
    During the playoffs Indi won 23-8 when the line was set @ 50.5
     
    In the case of New Orleans, the line was set only once above 50 ( 51.5 ) a game in which Cincinnati beat the Saints 31-16
     
     
     
     
     
    Banned
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    Posted: #5
    Im with you on that pick... alot of people on overs... I think this is misperception with IND's potent offense and them being at home.... 

    At I stated on my 4 team 13 point teaser thread...

    Last year in the 7 games where IND was playing with an over/under that was 48 points or more, 6 out of the 7 games went under....

    This seems so contrary to public perception that it almost smell like a sucker bet....
     
    Legend
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    Posted: #6
    Like it and agree 100% on this play
     
    GL    Have a great season
     
    Wizer  
     
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    Posted: #7
    awesome...can't against this under trend, plus this game is being the 1st game of the season makes it a great bet because both offenses are still rusty.
     
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    Posted: #8

    Thanks for the excellent information as always Roberto.  I think it is an excellent wager. 

    One small fly in the ointment, imo, is their head to head to record which has exceeded 53 points on both meetings:

     

    HEAD 2 HEAD RESULTS (SINCE 2001)

    Date Score Line O/U
    Sep 28, 2003 IND 55, @NO 21 IND, NL 0.0
    Nov 18, 2001 IND 20, @NO 34 IND, NL 0.0
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle1111:

    Thanks for the excellent information as always Roberto.  I think it is an excellent wager. 

    One small fly in the ointment, imo, is their head to head to record which has exceeded 53 points on both meetings:

     

    HEAD 2 HEAD RESULTS (SINCE 2001)

    Date Score Line O/U
    Sep 28, 2003 IND 55, @NO 21 IND, NL 0.0
    Nov 18, 2001 IND 20, @NO 34 IND, NL 0.0


    only the saints were not even close to the team then as they are now.  Under is the play
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #10
    love the information. keep it up guys.
     
    All-Star
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    Posted: #11
    Great stuff RF,but i'm not so sure that a team averaging between 23 -27 ppg can be considered a good offensive team. Thoughts?    Again..great write ups Roberto.
     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #12
    Great write up as usual...Great to see you back. Best of luck on your plays this year as I will be checking your thread and tailing you alot this year.
     
     
     
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    Posted: #13
    Upon further revue,i am wrong.I swore indy,cincy,n.o,and a few others averaged over 30 ppg last year.The carolina panthers offense was terrible last year,but it seemed like they were always putting up in the low 20's.Thanks for the great research.
     
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    Posted: #14
    Good stuff
     
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    Posted: #15
     
    Covers Linesmen
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    Posted: #16
    roberto - the colts defense is very undermanned compared to last year...june, mcfarland are gone/out

    also i read that peyton is going to open it up this year...at least in the regular season

    best of luck
     
    Legend
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    Posted: #17
    GL with this season bro like the picks 
     
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    Posted: #18
     
    Rookie
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    Posted: #19
    Like the Under Pick Myself, Best of Luck!
     
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    Posted: #21
     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #22
    Thanks for all the info.    
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #23
    Was already thinking it myself....
    Good luck RF
     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #24
    Robert,
     
    Any trends on the game?
     
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #25
    Hey started off with a good one
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