Do you see a big difference in taking this vs taking Titans ML?
Depends...Let's take Pinnacle for instant (arguably the sharpest book). They have Titans at about a 41% chance of winning the game at +137 but if you can find...ummmm maybe +144 then that creates positive expected value for Titans ML and that would be a good bet. As far as the spread...well there's a slight lean on the Titans right now at 51% (-109 ) but that's still negative EV...You would need a book offering (-104) to get a good bet ...
so basically unless you find books offering the right juice or you personally think the Titans probability of winning the game is higher than 41% or Titans covering the spread is higher than 51% then Titans are a bad bet in terms of EV.
FYI - Titans ML = -21.2 EV and Spread = -2.9 EV. So the spread is the lesser of the two evils . I personally like Under 43
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Quote Originally Posted by Moveless:
Do you see a big difference in taking this vs taking Titans ML?
Depends...Let's take Pinnacle for instant (arguably the sharpest book). They have Titans at about a 41% chance of winning the game at +137 but if you can find...ummmm maybe +144 then that creates positive expected value for Titans ML and that would be a good bet. As far as the spread...well there's a slight lean on the Titans right now at 51% (-109 ) but that's still negative EV...You would need a book offering (-104) to get a good bet ...
so basically unless you find books offering the right juice or you personally think the Titans probability of winning the game is higher than 41% or Titans covering the spread is higher than 51% then Titans are a bad bet in terms of EV.
FYI - Titans ML = -21.2 EV and Spread = -2.9 EV. So the spread is the lesser of the two evils . I personally like Under 43
Depends...Let's take Pinnacle for instant (arguably the sharpest book). They have Titans at about a 41% chance of winning the game at +137 but if you can find...ummmm maybe +144 then that creates positive expected value for Titans ML and that would be a good bet. As far as the spread...well there's a slight lean on the Titans right now at 51% (-109 ) but that's still negative EV...You would need a book offering (-104) to get a good bet ...
so basically unless you find books offering the right juice or you personally think the Titans probability of winning the game is higher than 41% or Titans covering the spread is higher than 51% then Titans are a bad bet in terms of EV.
FYI - Titans ML = -21.2 EV and Spread = -2.9 EV. So the spread is the lesser of the two evils . I personally like Under 43
Great stats but to you and Crazy Frenchman much sorrow for your country. The strong will prevail
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Quote Originally Posted by cognaczech:
Depends...Let's take Pinnacle for instant (arguably the sharpest book). They have Titans at about a 41% chance of winning the game at +137 but if you can find...ummmm maybe +144 then that creates positive expected value for Titans ML and that would be a good bet. As far as the spread...well there's a slight lean on the Titans right now at 51% (-109 ) but that's still negative EV...You would need a book offering (-104) to get a good bet ...
so basically unless you find books offering the right juice or you personally think the Titans probability of winning the game is higher than 41% or Titans covering the spread is higher than 51% then Titans are a bad bet in terms of EV.
FYI - Titans ML = -21.2 EV and Spread = -2.9 EV. So the spread is the lesser of the two evils . I personally like Under 43
Great stats but to you and Crazy Frenchman much sorrow for your country. The strong will prevail
I love following this guy and much respect. Just cashed on his Georgia Bulldogs and Washington Redskins picks. However, hate to see me on opposite. I think the BOLD GOLD jerseys give these guys a little extra UMPH tonight. I bought hook to -2.5 for Jags, but much respect to CrazyFrenchmen and his country. BOL tonight
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I love following this guy and much respect. Just cashed on his Georgia Bulldogs and Washington Redskins picks. However, hate to see me on opposite. I think the BOLD GOLD jerseys give these guys a little extra UMPH tonight. I bought hook to -2.5 for Jags, but much respect to CrazyFrenchmen and his country. BOL tonight
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