TNF Week 7 - Jags / Saints....

NFL Season Record:  +11.5 units

TNF - Jags / Saints

Jaguars +2 (2.5 units)

Some thoughts....

The Jags come in to this one playing their 3rd "road" game in the last 3.5 weeks.  Not ideal.  The line has been all over the place this week based on rumors about Trevor Lawrence knee injury, and whether he will play or not or be limited if he does play.

I love getting involved with the Saints games.  They might be the most consistent team in the league - you can count on a few things from them...  First is they will likely score in the teens.  Their offense is consistently mediocre to bad - very balanced - but particularly bad when trying to come from behind and forcing Carr to throw when pressured.  And their defense is the only thing that really keeps them in games. So the question when betting a Saints game is sometimes pretty simple - can their defense hold the other team to a competitive amount of points?

The Jags defense if very balanced and especially good at pressure.  Against a guy like Carr - I always see pressure rate as one of the keys to the game - and the Jags are 6th in the NFL in hurry rate.  This compounds if the Saints are behind and become one dimensional.  I do not see the Saints getting above their average on offense tonight.

Lawrence injury is a big question mark - which translates to risk.  The risk is that he is either limited to staying in the pocket and not being mobile - which is where he excels - or cant play at all.  So you have to figure in the ability of the backup QB Beathard in to the equation also.  If Lawrence is somewhat healthy - and can move - I dont really see this game as being close.  And while the Saints defense has been very good - their pressure rate is a very surprising 28th in the NFL which should translate in to Lawrence having some time in the pocket.

The Jags have won 3 in a row - and are showing signs of being a deep run playoff contender like everyone thought at the end of last season and beginning of this season.  One of these teams is a 11-6 and playoff team, and the other is an 8-9 week to week team.

This would have been my biggest wager so far this season at 3.5 units - but taking a unit off for the risk at QB for Jax.  I really think Jax does what they want tonight and wins comfortably.

Jags 28-13

GL all

@vanzack

nice write up.. BOL 

Lawrence is playing from  yahoo fantasy update just now. 

Yes.  He will start.  That is known.  We dont know what that means for mobility or if he will finish.

Buying the point 

@vanzack

Thanks for the write up as always.

Could you give me your take on having +2 1/2 -110 vs +1 1/2 +100. Is buying through 2 worth the 10 cents? Is the number 2 relevant enough in todays NFL?

These were not just regular road games, they travelled across the pound for two weeks, then flew back into Jax and handled the colts, but now have to travel to NO on a short week. TL is great, but maybe playing at 70% tonight. Carr has not been playing well, but could see some success tonight vs a Jax pass defense that is 2nd worse in the league. I think this is a bad spot for Jax with all the travelling and TL not at 100%. Fading you over the course of the season is not profitable, but tonight i think Saints take care of business at home. Best of luck, Van. 

All good - and I dont like to pick out things unless factual....

The Jags pass defense is ranked 10th in the NFL in DVOA.  Not sure where you got "2nd worst in the league", but that is something that is factually incorrect.

@vanzack

10 cents to buy from 1.5 to 2.5 is usually going to be about break even.  Lots of factors - but that is super cheap (right now cheapest I see is 12 cents) and makes it a discussion worth having.

I often dont choose one or the other - I identify spreads at price points that I like and spread it around.  How much is +2 available to you?

@vanzack

 100 % Correct Van. He's obviously referring to 31st in opp pass yrds pg. That stat doesn't say much unless you dig deeper.

https://saintsreport.com/threads/penning-benched-for-tonight-it-seems.498635/

Will ride with ya even though i am a Saints fan. I like money more as I have become older. My allegiance is with my finances. Interesting thread above to support your thesis. Lets get it.

@vanzack

 Hey Van, my statement was based on passing yards allowed this season 270 yards/game, which is 2nd worse, only to the chargers 289 yards/game. 

@vanzack

Well +2 wasn’t available at this book at that moment. +1 1/2 -106 that could be alternated to +1 1/2 +100 or +2 1/2 -110. I will be adding another book soon that offers better pricing and is less risk adverse. 

@nawlins51

 LOL @ ur allegiance is with your finances. Love it.

@L3onedust

 haha lets get paid

Got it.  Fair enough.  Not a fan of these raw stats - but it is what it is.

+2 at -105 is a pretty fair price right now.  You might want to split the bet - half at 1.5 and half at 2.5.

Jags should win. 

YES!

Thanks for sharing this - in my writeup I forgot to mention the two OLs out for the Saints tonight - and this is additional info I didn't know.

Thanks again.

@vanzack

Good insight. GL