TNF Week 7 - Jags / Saints....

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

NFL Season Record:  +11.5 units TNF - Jags / Saints Jaguars +2 (2.5 units)   Some thoughts.... The Jags come in to this one playing their 3rd "road" game in the last 3.5 weeks.  Not ideal.  The line has been all over the place this week based on rumors about Trevor Lawrence knee injury, and whether he will play or not or be limited if he does play. I love getting involved with the Saints games.  They might be the most consistent team in the league - you can count on a few things from them...  First is they will likely score in the teens.  Their offense is consistently mediocre to bad - very balanced - but particularly bad when trying to come from behind and forcing Carr to throw when pressured.  And their defense is the only thing that really keeps them in games. So the question when betting a Saints game is sometimes pretty simple - can their defense hold the other team to a competitive amount of points? The Jags defense if very balanced and especially good at pressure.  Against a guy like Carr - I always see pressure rate as one of the keys to the game - and the Jags are 6th in the NFL in hurry rate.  This compounds if the Saints are behind and become one dimensional.  I do not see the Saints getting above their average on offense tonight. Lawrence injury is a big question mark - which translates to risk.  The risk is that he is either limited to staying in the pocket and not being mobile - which is where he excels - or cant play at all.  So you have to figure in the ability of the backup QB Beathard in to the equation also.  If Lawrence is somewhat healthy - and can move - I dont really see this game as being close.  And while the Saints defense has been very good - their pressure rate is a very surprising 28th in the NFL which should translate in to Lawrence having some time in the pocket. The Jags have won 3 in a row - and are showing signs of being a deep run playoff contender like everyone thought at the end of last season and beginning of this season.  One of these teams is a 11-6 and playoff team, and the other is an 8-9 week to week team. This would have been my biggest wager so far this season at 3.5 units - but taking a unit off for the risk at QB for Jax.  I really think Jax does what they want tonight and wins comfortably. Jags 28-13 GL all

Quote Originally Posted by AC2002:

Very similar to the same play in Dallas game....  defender holding blocker running him into return man.  That's just terrible

Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:

@vanzack  Well done van. I was going to lay off this one but I read your write up and figured what the hell I’ll jump on the vanwagon! Thanks as always for the work you put in and what you share with the betting community