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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #3851

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Ravens TE Mark Andrews has a decent shot at being available for the conference championship vs ChiefsMind you they seemed to have played fine without him against TEXANS.
Basically Ravens are healthy.

 
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Posted: #3852

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Ravens TE Mark Andrews has a decent shot at being available for the conference championship vs ChiefsMind you they seemed to have played fine without him against TEXANS.Basically Ravens are healthy.
Meanwhile big question mark in Frisco as star Deebo Samuel is questionable with a bad shoulder.  However xrays revealed no fracture.  Status still TBD.

 
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Posted: #3853

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Ravens TE Mark Andrews has a decent shot at being available for the conference championship vs ChiefsMind you they seemed to have played fine without him against TEXANS.Basically Ravens are healthy.Meanwhile big question mark in Frisco as star Deebo Samuel is questionable with a bad shoulder.  However xrays revealed no fracture.  Status still TBD.
However reports are he is still in a lot of pain! an_speechless

 
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Posted: #3854

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Ravens TE Mark Andrews has a decent shot at being available for the conference championship vs ChiefsMind you they seemed to have played fine without him against TEXANS.Basically Ravens are healthy.Meanwhile big question mark in Frisco as star Deebo Samuel is questionable with a bad shoulder.  However xrays revealed no fracture.  Status still TBD.However reports are he is still in a lot of pain!
But I personally don't believe he will play.

 
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Posted: #3855

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Ravens TE Mark Andrews has a decent shot at being available for the conference championship vs ChiefsMind you they seemed to have played fine without him against TEXANS.Basically Ravens are healthy.Meanwhile big question mark in Frisco as star Deebo Samuel is questionable with a bad shoulder.  However xrays revealed no fracture.  Status still TBD.
i think hes toast for sunday 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #3856

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Ravens TE Mark Andrews has a decent shot at being available for the conference championship vs ChiefsMind you they seemed to have played fine without him against TEXANS.Basically Ravens are healthy.Meanwhile big question mark in Frisco as star Deebo Samuel is questionable with a bad shoulder.  However xrays revealed no fracture.  Status still TBD.

 

 

i think hes toast for sunday

Well that would be my guess too. I mean why suit up an injured player when he could be more valuable in the SB.

 
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Posted: #3857

Looks like the spread on the Niners could be softening a little.

Interesting.

 
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Posted: #3858

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Looks like the spread on the Niners could be softening a little. Interesting.
Iwonder if the Niners can cover a TD against the lions when they struggled just to win in the final 2 mins against the Packers

 
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Posted: #3859

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Looks like the spread on the Niners could be softening a little. Interesting.

And no it has flipped slightly the opposite way.

 
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Posted: #3860

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

 

Interesting CONFERENCE playoffs stat...

 

Dating back to 2002,  [and obviously excluding the covid year 2020]

the smallish HOME FAVs  of up to -5 are only  9 - 8 ATS

and just 11 - 6  su  [current ML is around -200]

 

This year, Ravens fall into this category.

 
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Posted: #3861

Conference games with odds close to what 49ers are laying:

 

Since 2002, HOME teams only (as venue matters!)

 

2021 - KC -7.0    LOSE  + FAIL    (in OT)
2019 - KC -7.0     win + cover
2017 - NE -7.5     win but FAIL
2016 - Atl -6.0    LOSE  + FAIL    (NE fluke!)
2014 - NE -7.0     win + cover
2012 - NE -7.5    LOSE  + FAIL
2011 - NE -7.0     win but FAIL
2008 - Pitt -6.0    win + cover   but vs #6 seed
2007 - GB -7.5    LOSE + FAIL
2004 - Phil -6.0    win + cover

 
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Posted: #3862

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Conference games with odds close to what 49ers are laying:   Since 2002, HOME teams only (as venue matters!)   2021 - KC -7.0    LOSE  + FAIL    (in OT)2019 - KC -7.0     win + cover2017 - NE -7.5     win but FAIL2016 - Atl -6.0    LOSE  + FAIL    (NE fluke!)2014 - NE -7.0     win + cover2012 - NE -7.5    LOSE  + FAIL2011 - NE -7.0     win but FAIL2008 - Pitt -6.0    win + cover   but vs #6 seed2007 - GB -7.5    LOSE + FAIL2004 - Phil -6.0    win + cover

thanks for the info   but unfortunately  not much help to lean either way 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #3863

I am considering taking an alt-line on CHIEFS at +7.5 -200 but not yet decided...

 
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Posted: #3864

GL this weekend peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
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Posted: #3865

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

I am considering taking an alt-line on CHIEFS at +7.5 -200 but not yet decided...
Now we see the RAVENS line has been bet up to -4.5....Everyone likes the home favs

But the alt-line on a CHIEFS play of +7.5  could be had for around -190 so far....maybe better by gametime or +8.0 for around -200...needless to say those numbers cross a significant threshold

 
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Posted: #3866

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am considering taking an alt-line on CHIEFS at +7.5 -200 but not yet decided...Now we see the RAVENS line has been bet up to -4.5....Everyone likes the home favs But the alt-line on a CHIEFS play of +7.5  could be had for around -190 so far....maybe better by gametime or +8.0 for around -200...needless to say those numbers cross a significant threshold

As expected, with the announcement that Deebo Samuel is no longer Q and will play the line on NINERS has risen to a solid -7.5  in most places.

 
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Posted: #3867

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am considering taking an alt-line on CHIEFS at +7.5 -200 but not yet decided...Now we see the RAVENS line has been bet up to -4.5....Everyone likes the home favs But the alt-line on a CHIEFS play of +7.5  could be had for around -190 so far....maybe better by gametime or +8.0 for around -200...needless to say those numbers cross a significant threshold As expected, with the announcement that Deebo Samuel is no longer Q and will play the line on NINERS has risen to a solid -7.5  in most places.

Very significant impact player TE Mark Andrews is good to go for the RAVENS, and reports are he is healthy!

 
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Posted: #3868

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I am considering taking an alt-line on CHIEFS at +7.5 -200 but not yet decided...Now we see the RAVENS line has been bet up to -4.5....Everyone likes the home favs But the alt-line on a CHIEFS play of +7.5  could be had for around -190 so far....maybe better by gametime or +8.0 for around -200...needless to say those numbers cross a significant threshold As expected, with the announcement that Deebo Samuel is no longer Q and will play the line on NINERS has risen to a solid -7.5  in most places. Very significant impact player TE Mark Andrews is good to go for the RAVENS, and reports are he is healthy!
Both Toney and Moore will not be available for backup duty at WR for Chiefs......could be trouble if anyone goes down!

 
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Posted: #3869

Previous CONFERENCE games with lines on a HOME FAV at a TD similar to what the NINERS line is today:


2021 -  KC -7.0   LOSE  + FAIL (in OT)
2019 -  KC -7.0    win + cover
2017 -  NE -7.5    win  but FAIL
2014 -  NE -7.0    win + cover
2012 -  NE -7.5   LOSE  + FAIL
2011 -  NE -7.0    win but FAIL
2007 -  GB -7.5   LOSE  + FAIL

All above since 2002...

 
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Posted: #3870

GLclover on your plays @fubah2 peace_5

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #3871

J

 
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Posted: #3872

January 28, conference games:

Playoffs:  43 - 15   so far

Ravens -1.0 -210

 
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Posted: #3873

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

January 28, conference games: Playoffs:  43 - 15   so far Ravens -1.0 -210
Adding Ravens -1.5 -200

 
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Posted: #3874

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Playoffs:  43 - 15   so far

Ravens -1.0 -210

Adding Ravens -1.5 -200

adding

Ravens -2.0 -190


Will be hoping to find a good middle opp using alt-lines as the game progresses, hopefully after a Ravens score so I can grab CHIEFS maybe on a +10.5 or +14.5 for decent value

 
 
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Posted: #3875

@fubah2

Good luck!  

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