To hedge or not to hedge?

Question

Fellas,I have the Giants ML &#x2B;2100...should hedge and grab Patriots ML -140 at $980 to win $700 to guarantee myself some coin?I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions.Either way, if Giants win, I win $1120 and if Pats win, I win $700 (less $100 Giants wager).Thoughts? Let it ride? Thanks and good luck fellasPROPSUPERBOWL XLVI WINNER[53214] NEW YORK GIANTS &#x2B;2100100 /&#xD;&#xA;            2100

RickDaRulah · Answer

Fellas,I have the Giants ML &#x2B;2100...should hedge and grab Patriots ML -140 at $980 to win $700 to guarantee myself some coin?I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions.Either way, if Giants win, I win $1120 and if Pats win, I win $700 (less $100 Giants wager).Thoughts? Let it ride? Thanks and good luck fellasPROPSUPERBOWL XLVI WINNER[53214] NEW YORK GIANTS &#x2B;2100100 /&#xD;&#xA;            2100

CIRE5150 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by RickDaRulah]  Fellas,I have the Giants ML &#x2B;2100...should hedge and grab Patriots ML -140 at $980 to win $700 to guarantee myself some coin?I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions.Either way, if Giants win, I win $1120 and if Pats win, I win $700 (less $100 Giants wager).Thoughts? Let it ride? Thanks and good luck fellasPROPSUPERBOWL XLVI WINNER[53214] NEW YORK GIANTS &#x2B;2100100 /&#xD;&#xA;            2100  [/Quote]Rick da Rulah&#x27; finally someone in here has da same question like us. My wife also has a future bet on the NYG she bet them way before the season started. She got it at 25 to 1. Honestly I would hedge a lil less than your $980. Maybe like $780 to win $500&#x27; This is my honest opinion. It&#x27;s just the way this business were in There are no guarantee in this game. Even though Giants are on fire right now. Good luck Rick; whatever your decision may be......

billsneedhelp · Answer

I was once told you should never walk away from guaranteed $.

Also would you be more upset if you-

1)hedged on the Pats and the Giants won anyway cutting into your potential max winnings.

OR

2)if you let ride, Giants lose and you won nothing.

I'm guessing the second one.

ironlionzion722 · Answer

Giants lose so you&#x27;de be stupid not to

dl36 · Answer

bet 2100 on NE money line if you think they are going win...let it ride if you think NYG is going to win...

Bill_Stax · Answer

These questions come up often and most bettors don't know how to think about them. A key concept can help define the problem: risk aversion.

It's all about how risk averse you are. In other words your whole situation outside of this bet comes into play. If you were a billionaire with no worries then you should only hedge if the hedge is a good stand alone bet. If you were penniless you would max hedge. If you have money to pay the bills then I would, for psychological reasons, just hedge enough to cover my initial bet.

Madden · Answer

If this is how you feel then the choice is obvious...

"I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions."

IMO make sure you leave the giants side at least 2/3 more valuable. (That is if you think they are winning).

The NFL is pretty random. A bounce here a bounce there. Take some coin.

I'm in the exact same spot on giants futures. Likely going for a break even on futures on pats only.

GL

Madden · Answer

Bill also makes a good point...A lot depends on how big of a win $700 would be for you. Will this add to your bankroll and double it?

mattbrot · Answer

so many variables involved to know what is the best decision for you.  My opinion is that you should never pass up on free money.

vegasslim · Answer

i bet giants at 25-1 before the playoffs started i am letting it ride i felt like they had a shot then and i still do gl whatever u do

wil168 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by RickDaRulah]  Fellas,I have the Giants ML &#x2B;2100...should hedge and grab Patriots ML -140 at $980 to win $700 to guarantee myself some coin?I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions.Either way, if Giants win, I win $1120 and if Pats win, I win $700 (less $100 Giants wager).Thoughts? Let it ride? Thanks and good luck fellasPROPSUPERBOWL XLVI WINNER[53214] NEW YORK GIANTS &#x2B;2100100 /&#xD;&#xA;            2100  [/Quote]I had the same bet and was thinking about this over the past week.  It is not that I have no confidence that Gmen would win but there&#x27;s always that possibility it would go the other way.  So I&#x27;ve decided to hedge just enough to cover my Gmen bet.  So if Gmen wins I win but less the $140 I put on Pats ML.  And if the damn Pats wins I walk away nor a winner or a loser.  Minimize damage control is all I&#x27;m doing at this point.  Most of all Enjoy the SB and Go Gmen!

chef702 · Answer

Parlay the Pats with the over.

FredTheGodson · Answer

Let it ride dude.. Giants got this

touchdownjaysus · Answer

my suggestion is to play the scenarios out in your head or on paper and look at the figures you'd be dealing with if the worst happened (pats win)

if you'd be devestated betting 140/100 on the pats, then....

bet 280/200. if you'd still be destroyed and be late on bills, then...

bet 420/300

and so on.... you still want to be super interested in the game and feel like you've got a lot on the line.... that's the burn of adreneline we all love.... but you've got to hedge just to guarantee yourself some cash. Unless you really don't need the money, then just sit back and root for the GMen.

flaco111 · Answer

I bet the Giants at 30-1 for right before their game with NO because I thought the Giants had value, then after they got crushed I waited until they lost to GB and when the odds went to 100-1 I put a little more on it.

I'm going to hedge a little, but I really think the Giants are gonna win this game...at any rate, wait to hedge becasue all of the money is going on the Giants and the Pats ML will get better for you as the game gets closer

Makaveli1 · Answer

Let it ride Slick Rick Da Rula!!! I am probably on the Pats but no one knows the final score here. I say go with it a make the most coin. Hedging can be smart depending on what the amount means to you.

Damn, I miss Slick Rick. Is he still in prison?

BOL bro!

donk · Answer

I am in the same boat!....have a 4 team parley with only Giant +120 ML to win $1,420 .........Hedge is the correct way to go!........I really like the Giants!.....this game will come down to who has the ball last......and its going to be the defense winning the game.....not Brady or Eli.......can the Pats stop the rush or can Giants get to Brady!.......I feel a defense score will win this game........I still have time to think about the Hedge or let it ride.............

donk · Answer

one more thing......if you let it ride.......this game will be more FUN  ..........if you win.....its all   or NOTHINGGO GIANTS!............GL

RickDaRulah · Answer

Bills, great point. the more I think about it...i&#x27;d rather walk away with "something" rather than "nothing"...especially if its free money.I feel like I&#x27;m playing "Deal or No Deal"Thanks and good luck with your SB play.

RickDaRulah · Answer

Madden - $700 wouldn&#x27;t exactly double my bankroll, but it would be just enough to get me out of the red for the NFL season. Thanks

SteelCash · Answer

Hedge&#xD;&#xA;Think of it this way:  Somebody walks up to you on the street and hands you $700.  Then he says to you, "You can keep this $700 and walk away, or you can bet it all on a coin flip.  But if you win the bet, I&#x27;ll give you another $1,400 in addition to the $700 that you have in your hand.  However if you lose the coin flip, I take back the $700, and you get nothing."&#xD;&#xA;Like you said... you&#x27;d be a fool not to.  And judging from your comment that it would get you "out of the red", you need to hedge my friend.

Elias26 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by SteelCash]     Hedge&#xD;&#xA;Think of it this way:  Somebody walks up to you on the street and hands you $700.  Then he says to you, "You can keep this $700 and walk away, or you can bet it all on a coin flip.  But if you win the bet, I&#x27;ll give you another $1,400 in addition to the $700 that you have in your hand.  However if you lose the coin flip, I take back the $700, and you get nothing."&#xD;&#xA;Like you said... you&#x27;d be a fool not to.  And judging from your comment that it would get you "out of the red", you need to hedge my friend.    [/Quote]  Great write up Steel Cash I totally w&#x27; u &amp; Flace 111, BOL whatever you all do w&#x27; your futures......

Stew Baker · Answer

Think of it this way. The Pats are -140, and the Giants are &#x2B;120, so, without geting technical, the chop price is about 130. Your position as it now stands is you have roughly $957 on the Giants to win roughly $1243. Now, forget for a minute that you have this future. Answer for yourself, based on how you see the game, the question of how much, if at all, of a position you want on the Giants. Then make whatever bet is necessary to adjust your current position to the position you want.

Werker · Answer

Staxx has it right...there&#x27;s no "right" answer here. It&#x27;s all about pain tolerance and tolerance of variance. If I offered you the Giants at &#x2B;2100 right now, but told you that you could only have the bet if it was your only action on the game, your only question should be how much action I&#x27;d take. You already have a good bet. Have a good one no matter what you decide.

ChOdaZ · Answer

hedge enough to win you original bet back

To hedge or not to hedge?

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