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To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

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Captain
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Posted: #476
maybe this thread will last another fucking year...by then they should be out of math class
 
I would say archive but it might be better to just keep it going for a couple years first
 
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Posted: #477
If you are in the position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error.
 
This all you need to know.
 
Unless you are willing to let your parlay play out to the finish don't have( i.e.) 3 early games and 1 late game.
 
Absorb this people.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #478
wow great post, i never thought of parlays like that.

"1.  Hedging 424

  2.  Don’t hedge 500

  3.  Leave the last game off of the parlay 600"
say you ride out monday night game and hit, you only win 1k on a 4 team parlay.
if you instead do a 3 team parlay, win the 600 and bet that 600 on the monday night game, then you get 1200 for the same 4 teams.
parlay is for suckers.

 
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Posted: #479
Very interesting regarding hedging. But i dont agree that parlays are for suckers. Basketball is great for parlays for such prop bets such as highest scoring quarter by which team is a no brainer at -200 to -380. Parlay 3 of those and your guranteed + something...
 
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Posted: #480

interesting......

 

 
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Posted: #481
somehow I ended up here after reading a forum from SBR....
 
 
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Posted: #482
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

OK, let me ask this question.
 
If you know you are going to hedge the last game of a parlay, why not bet 2 parlays, one with team A of the last game and one with team B of the last game?
 
This hedges before the parlay even starts.
 
The answer is that it is the same as leaving the game off of the parlay, but YOU MAKE MORE MONEY BY LEAVING IT OFF IN THE FIRST PLACE.

 

Because noone is 100% sure which game will win., sport gambling contain 50% luck and skill at capping.

So hedge for some profits is SMART

 
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Posted: #483
i guess when you bet a 6 team parlay, you never assume that it will come down to the last game.  are you serious with that?  why would you bet a parlay and then bet another parlay with the last game on the other side, if you are gonna do that you might as well try every possible outcome.  hedging comes into play when you play a parlay and you are at your last game, now the decision you make is ride it and win the full amount or hedge it and make sure you win a certain amount.  hedging comes into play when you are at the last game and hindsight has already passed you by.  guess if everyone knew that a parlay would come down to their last bet they will always play both sides lol.
 
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Posted: #484
Holy crap. I just read this whole thing and it is freaking hilarious.  Some of DevilFan's idiotic posts almost had me in tears.  About 30 people revealed themselves as complete morons.  I have to commend those of you who actually took the time to try to help these people out, but this just further supports my belief that there is no hope for the human race.

Sorry to bump this, but I couldn't resist.
 
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Posted: #485
I agree and disagree. if you plan on potentially hedging the final leg, theres no reason you should even include that game. If you throw together a longshot, not really expecting to win, and all but one hit, I would hedge. I think if you play alot of parlays there is no reason to hedge, but if you rarely play them, it may be wise to just take the free money. I just don't think there is a right or wrong side to the hedge vs let it ride argument. While the math clearly favors not hedging, It depends on the person and the situation, which you can't account for with math.
 
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Posted: #486
i had a 6 team teaser with GB +10.5 as my final leg that monday night. I didn't hedge, I middled taking minn -5 and it was one of the larger bets I won. i wouldn't have hedged my bet it if were a parlay.
 
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Posted: #487
Vanzack... i agree with your reasoning.. considering im a finance major. But, a 3-team parlay doesn't compare to a 4-game teaser. so the numbers are off with that regard. Also, alot of people take underdogs ML on teasers so the payout is more. If you take a dog of 7 the probabilities are alot lower, creating a lower expected value. so 50/50 chance is not always the case. You have to take into the actual facts when considering hedging.
 
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Posted: #488
Hey Van,
First of all the 4 team parlay with 3 early games and 1 later game really is a bad idea when you break it down like that.
But I have a hypothetical question for you:
Say you got a little buzzed and bet a 4 team parlay and you  ACCIDENTALLY mixed in a Sunday night game as your 4th.
You hit the first 3
Now what would  you do?
Take the Gauranteed 420
or Take a 50/50 shot at hitting the 4 teamer?
 
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Posted: #489
Quote Originally Posted by HonLi:

Hey Van,
First of all the 4 team parlay with 3 early games and 1 later game really is a bad idea when you break it down like that.
But I have a hypothetical question for you:
Say you got a little buzzed and bet a 4 team parlay and you  ACCIDENTALLY mixed in a Sunday night game as your 4th.
You hit the first 3
Now what would  you do?
Take the Gauranteed 420
or Take a 50/50 shot at hitting the 4 teamer?


pretty sure the title of this thread answers this question.
 
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Posted: #490
Quote Originally Posted by HonLi:

Hey Van,
First of all the 4 team parlay with 3 early games and 1 later game really is a bad idea when you break it down like that.
But I have a hypothetical question for you:
Say you got a little buzzed and bet a 4 team parlay and you  ACCIDENTALLY mixed in a Sunday night game as your 4th.
You hit the first 3
Now what would  you do?
Take the Gauranteed 420
or Take a 50/50 shot at hitting the 4 teamer?


Picks before Booze, or else you lose!
 
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Posted: #491
Quote Originally Posted by onion99:



pretty sure the title of this thread answers this question.

Nope
Doesn't
 
Prospect
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Posted: #492
"...hedging is a bad idea"
 
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Posted: #493
Quote Originally Posted by onion99:



pretty sure the title of this thread answers this question.

I think in this scenario the smart play this guaranteed money instead of the 50/50 shot.
sorry

 
Captain
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Posted: #494
I work at a $12 billion Hedge Fund in Chicago and to say that 'hedging' is a bad idea is absolutely hilarious. When done correctly, it is the best idea. Whether it be sports, casino, or investment. I work on an event-driven portfolio where the simple objective is to quantify the value of the company and analyze the risk and potential problems associated with the upcoming proposed event. We will invest when we feel that the probability of the transaction not occurring is disproportionate to the risk premium. If you are hedging correctly, you are guaranteed money.
 
Legend
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Posted: #495

Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

I work at a $12 billion Hedge Fund in Chicago and to say that 'hedging' is a bad idea is absolutely hilarious. When done correctly, it is the best idea. Whether it be sports, casino, or investment. I work on an event-driven portfolio where the simple objective is to quantify the value of the company and analyze the risk and potential problems associated with the upcoming proposed event. We will invest when we feel that the probability of the transaction not occurring is disproportionate to the risk premium. If you are hedging correctly, you are guaranteed money.

Look - this thread is about 2 years old - has 500 posts - and Im not going to rehash it or go back in to it other than to answer this incredibly naive post above...

Hedging in your field, and hedging a parlay are only similar in name - NOTHING ELSE.

Im really glad you do the great work you do, and are so proud of it - but clearly running a hedge fund is different than hedging a parlay.  Thats like saying I own a cat themed gift shop, so I am an expert on box.

Once again - we are all very impressed by your writeup and your multisyllable vocabulary - Im sure you can blow away your fellow wall street jerkoffs - but when you are laying at least -110 on both sides of a wager, and there is no new information - then you are a fucking loser.  I dont know how else to say it.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #496
Good Write up Vanzack.  I see now.
 
Captain
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Posted: #497
Nah, I can pretty much hedge a parlay for ya and turn you a profit. Sorry douchebag, that you're so simple minded and can't figure that out.
 
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Posted: #498

Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

Nah, I can pretty much hedge a parlay for ya and turn you a profit. Sorry douchebag, that you're so simple minded and can't figure that out.

Tell me how.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #499

Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

Nah, I can pretty much hedge a parlay for ya and turn you a profit. Sorry douchebag, that you're so simple minded and can't figure that out.

Hedge me out of a 3 team 6-1 parlay where there is no new information and the line is the same.

Cant wait to hear this one.

Gonna tell me how you cant buy a hotdog with expected value bucks?

I wonder where in this thread of 500 posts and 2 years you are going to tell me something new to bend mathematics and somehow bring something nobody has thought of.

Dying to hear it.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #500

Sure...3 teamer at 6:1, say $100 bet. First two are winners, simply hedge the last bet, let's say for $300, obviously opposite of what your bet is on the last leg of the 3 teamer. Scenario 1, you hit your 3 teamer, get your $600, but lose the $330 bet, net $270. Scenario 2, you lose the 3 teamer, at $100, however, you bet $300 the other way on the last part of the 3 teamer. Net profit, of $200, nicely and neat wrapped up for ya.

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