WEEK 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 9's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was ANOTHER outright win for the SUCKER BET, bringing our season tally to an even 5-4 ATS.  This week we are going to do something we only done a few times in the past.  There is a total that jumps out in which Joe Public is heavily favoring the over.  Perhaps more so than any on the board this week.  I'm however going to take the under 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up.  This week I'm relying heavily on trends.  However there is more to support this play than just trends.  That being said....The Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina.  The Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0, 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite,  and 7-1 in Falcons last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Under is 9-0 in Panthers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in Week 1, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games as a home underdog, and 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS win.  Both team have some injuries to key players.  The Falcons have given up 397 yards on the ground over the past three games.  So don't be shocked to see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams.  Michael Turner will also get his fair share carries hopefully meaning the clock will continue to "run" often.  Combined these two QB's have thrown for 23 INT this season,  more than any other 2 QBs playing each other on Sunday.  Additionally, BOTH teams are in the bottom 7 of the league in FG%.  Neither team has taken a punt or a kick-off to the house this season.  There you have it, UNDER 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up.  Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 11's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

I was thinkg over in this game. Man, what a sucker I am  

Or, would have been. Like it and good luck demapples

Like this bet.  Like the Panthers here, too.  GL

I really thought this game was going to be an Over. Interesting.

good luck. im with ya on this one. ez money

hhmmm..never seen a total from you before...

Wow....so many good sucker bet choices this week, I'm surprised that you're choosing a total instead of a side

I think Joe Public will get crushed this weekend, and be chasing to get some it back on MNF.....only to lose again

GL demapples

thought for sure you would be on Green Bay..but I like the twist of stepping out on a total....

 

 

I must be a sucker because I also like GBay over Dallas.I think its time for the Cowboys to take a little nap this week. Any thoughts?

 Damn, I hate playing totals but am kind of an avid follower of this thread.

 I was hoping it would be the Packers plus the points as it seems as though Dallas is getting way too much love.

 Oh well, might have to throw a few bucks on it if for nothing more than shits and giggles.

 Here's to  and let's get the cash kids.

Nice change-up... and I think you're right.  

looks good

HAVE BOTH SIDES ON THE GAME..  NICE TO SEE WE AGREE

Looks Good Demapples

No side?  This is a first?

I also like atlanta in this game. And Since some post in this thread mentioned the Dallas game...I like Dallas to cover against the Pack as well. But what do I know. BTW... I like the under here as well.

sucker

might win but over is not obvious therefore I would not define it as a suckers bet.

It's a gutsy call. ATL/CAR have been due for an under for weeks, but it still keeps hitting. One thing about the public is that O/U consensus games are more likely to hit than sides. Although the past 2 weeks the #1 consensus over has missed with Indy/SF and Indy/Hou. Last week the top 3 actually lost Indy/Hou, NE/MIA, Dal/Phi.

Like the play, but I dunno if I got the balls to play it.

It all depends on whether ATL decides to go no-huddle or settle into a ground and pound approach, which will be determined by whether Caro. scores first. This will either be 13-10 or 33-30. You'll know in the first 4 minutes if you're a sucker.

 to both sides