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WEEK 13

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Posted: #126
suuma love reading your insight every week. Thanks. 
 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


This is your proof? LMFAO, a 3.5% sample size?  Also two problems.  

P1. Your data shows SU, I didn't know we were arguing about ML bets, I thought this had to do with ATS bets?

P2. Just because there is a divisional rival in 2 weeks does not mean it is a MEANINGFUL game, it could be the Cleveland Browns FFS!  Is this your definition of Sandwich Game?  Looking forward to playing the Cleveland Browns in 2 weeks when your opponent this week is 10x better?

"A 3.5% sample" is your retort....

You do know the NFL season is the shortest of any season by far.

You simply can't datamine a 16 game season to get to the threshold percentages you arbitrarily set. A team may have ONE sandwich game a season. Many others have none because they are long out of it before a sandwich game could exist. That is why it is called situational capping. 

You observe the situation, unique in its own right, at its own point in time and proceed accordingly.

Eric Berry accounted for 8 points in the box score. That is a wild card that can't be capped. It does not mean his angle was illegitimate because it lost.
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


This is your proof? LMFAO, a 3.5% sample size?  Also two problems.  

P1. Your data shows SU, I didn't know we were arguing about ML bets, I thought this had to do with ATS bets?

P2. Just because there is a divisional rival in 2 weeks does not mean it is a MEANINGFUL game, it could be the Cleveland Browns FFS!  Is this your definition of Sandwich Game?  Looking forward to playing the Cleveland Browns in 2 weeks when your opponent this week is 10x better?


This is the NFL, we don't get sample sizes like in Baseball or Basketball, Einstein. I have presented you a stat that tells you that road teams in divisional sandwich spots average a scoring differential of 1.5 PPG less than standard road teams. Where is your stat/research proving me wrong? I am looking forward to it.

P1) Why should we look at ATS numbers when comparing this two certain road spots? How can I compare a -4 to a +4 team? That doesn't make any sense mathematically.  When I present ATS trends I always tell the people the scoring margins so that we can measure it aside from an ATS number.

You play lines, not teams.

P2) Really? Every divisional game is important because there are such things as divisional records that can guide you to the playoffs. Their 2-0 record over the Browns can help the Ravens a lot in January.
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


"A 3.5% sample" is your retort....

You do know the NFL season is the shortest of any season by far.

You simply can't datamine a 16 game season to get to the threshold percentages you arbitrarily set. A team may have ONE sandwich game a season. Many others have none because they are long out of it before a sandwich game could exist. That is why it is called situational capping. 

You observe the situation, unique in its own right, at its own point in time and proceed accordingly.

Eric Berry accounted for 8 points in the box score. That is a wild card that can't be capped. It does not mean his angle was illegitimate because it lost.

Yep. But that goes over some people's heads.
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:





This dude is a retread troll who just starting keeping his record. Hopefully he contracts AIDS tonight.

The only troll in this thread is you, where is your record?  or do you just use this account to harass?
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



This is the NFL, we don't get sample sizes like in Baseball or Basketball, Einstein. I have presented you a stat that tells you that road teams in divisional sandwich spots average a scoring differential of 1.5 PPG less than standard road teams. Where is your stat/research proving me wrong? I am looking forward to it.

P1) Why should we look at ATS numbers when comparing this two certain road spots? How can I compare a -4 to a +4 team? That doesn't make any sense mathematically.  When I present ATS trends I always tell the people the scoring margins so that we can measure it aside from an ATS number.

You play lines, not teams.

P2) Really? Every divisional game is important because there are such things as divisional records that can guide you to the playoffs. Their 2-0 record over the Browns can help the Ravens a lot in January.

Have you even defined what a sandwich game is at this point?  Last time I checked there are two slices of bread in a sandwich.  Doing a quick search it seems most people believe the first slice of bread is a "big game" followed by a weaker game followed by the other slice of a bread or a "big game"  I'll give you divisional rival for that last slice but it still seems weak if it is a weak team.  Still have not seen you define that first slice of bread.  I didn't see where you qualified the first game in the series as a "big game".

The reason ATS is important is because SU results cannot be weighted equally between games particularly when we are assuming the middle game is a road game, another assumption I feel you are incorrectly making unless you can show me that is part of the universal definition of sandwich game.
 
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Posted: #132
Great capper Summa but very bad pick taking ATL today assuming KC wouldn't be as motivated to win because of playing 5 qtrs previous week & look ahead to Raiders.. Not with 5 games left brother.  Maybe if this was week 4 or 5 but not now.. live and learn
 
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Posted: #133
Suuma/Scal,

Any thoughts on either of the night games today or tomorrow? 

 
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Posted: #134
Tough loss on the falcons game, suuma. But it was def the correct pick. Hard to imagine some trolls can't see that. BOL on any picks. Taking the night off and gonna enjoy this Carolina Seattle game. 

Looking forward to your plays next week brotha. 

And man do I really believe you are Kevin James. Lol 
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by swanbomb:

Suuma/Scal,

Any thoughts on either of the night games today or tomorrow? 


Here's the winner tonight since you 0-4 today following him.
Caro +8 
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by Infam0us99:


Here's the winner tonight since you 0-4 today following him.
Caro +8 

Well I didn't follow him on all of his plays so the troll attempt is a fail, but regardless, on behalf of myself and Suuma, it is much appreciated. 
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by swanbomb:


Well I didn't follow him on all of his plays so the troll attempt is a fail, but regardless, on behalf of myself and Suuma, it is much appreciated. 

You didn't following and you ask him for the pick tonight?You're showing your tail there or wanting to fade his play. After reading his thread I jump on Atlanta and Jag and lost so trying to help you out with the pick I like but like you said you just trolling this thread or something.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by Infam0us99:


You didn't following and you ask him for the pick tonight?You're showing your tail there or wanting to fade his play. After reading his thread I jump on Atlanta and Jag and lost so trying to help you out with the pick I like but like you said you just trolling this thread or something.

Didn't really understand much of what you wrote. So just gonna leave it at that. GL on your plays. 
 
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Posted: #139
The only play I had a problem with was Jacksonville because you know how Bortles is bad and you backed him against the Broncos defense. Your were correct about Jacksonville's defense but it wasn't enough.

Under would have been sweet but easy to say know.

You will get those units back soon

Nothing but love and respect for you suuma.

 
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Posted: #140
 
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Posted: #141
WEEK 13 RECAP

2-4 -3.4u

Pending: Colts pk -110

Variance sometimes makes you smile and sometimes slaps you right in the face. Yesterday was one of those days on which I got challenged.
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Great capper Summa but very bad pick taking ATL today assuming KC wouldn't be as motivated to win because of playing 5 qtrs previous week & look ahead to Raiders.. Not with 5 games left brother.  Maybe if this was week 4 or 5 but not now.. live and learn


Buddy, KC scored 13 points. They got 16 points from defense & special teams and you say Falcons were a bad pick? Chiefs were actually outgained 13-28 offensively. You cannot cap pick-sixes and punt fake TDs. I would take ATL -4 again.


 
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Posted: #143
I liked Atlanta and had them in my survivor pool which really hurt.
I hope you're right on the Colts because I have them big to win the South. Better luck next week suuma!

 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Buddy, KC scored 13 points. They got 16 points from defense & special teams and you say Falcons were a bad pick? Chiefs were actually outgained 13-28 offensively. You cannot cap pick-sixes and punt fake TDs. I would take ATL -4 again.



Since when does your Defense having a good day scoring translate into the Offense having a bad day?

KCC 3rd down conversion: 30% (35% season avg)
ATL 3rd down conversion: 60% (41% season avg)

KCC Red Zone Efficiency 100% (45% season avg)
ATL Red Zone Efficiency 50% (57% season avg)

KCC Time of Pos: 28:08 (29:22 season avg)
ATL Time of Pos: 31:52 (29:47 season avg)

Seems to me ATL played at or above their season averages.
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Buddy, KC scored 13 points. They got 16 points from defense & special teams and you say Falcons were a bad pick? Chiefs were actually outgained 13-28 offensively. You cannot cap pick-sixes and punt fake TDs. I would take ATL -4 again.


how bout when you pick the right side becuase the team you picked had pick 6's and kick returns?  Do you then not take credit for loss?
 
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Posted: #146
meant to say credit for win
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by Infam0us99:


You didn't following and you ask him for the pick tonight?You're showing your tail there or wanting to fade his play. After reading his thread I jump on Atlanta and Jag and lost so trying to help you out with the pick I like but like you said you just trolling this thread or something.
What language were you shooting for?
 
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Posted: #148

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Buddy, KC scored 13 points. They got 16 points from defense & special teams and you say Falcons were a bad pick? Chiefs were actually outgained 13-28 offensively. You cannot cap pick-sixes and punt fake TDs. I would take ATL -4 again.



A lost is a lost ....everything happens in the game count as part of the team performance. You don't pick a team against the other just based on offense or defense alone.

If the Falcon pick lost, it is the wrong pick. A good pick is the pick that "win" regardless of how it is won.

The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


Since when does your Defense having a good day scoring translate into the Offense having a bad day?

KCC 3rd down conversion: 30% (35% season avg)
ATL 3rd down conversion: 60% (41% season avg)

KCC Red Zone Efficiency 100% (45% season avg)
ATL Red Zone Efficiency 50% (57% season avg)

KCC Time of Pos: 28:08 (29:22 season avg)
ATL Time of Pos: 31:52 (29:47 season avg)

Seems to me ATL played at or above their season averages.


Exactly. And if not for a pick-six and a fake punt TD - which is an outlier and far away from any season average, they cover this game easily. Thanks for underlining my statement, great job!

You can throw every stat out there, at the end the Chiefs needed a pick-six and a fake punt TD to cover this spread because Falcons won 28-13 on offense. They were moving the ball at will, Chiefs could only help themselves with penalties. The Chiefs even struggled to get 11 men on the field twice during the first half. You cannot cap a pick-six by Matt Ryan and you cannot cap a fake punt TD.

If I told you that you need to root for a pick-six by Ryan and a fake punt TD by the Chiefs so that you win your bet, you wouldn't have taken the Chiefs. And if this game was played again this week, you would take the Falcons, because you can't expect 16 non-offensive points again.

If you don't understand this, I cannot help you.
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:


A lost is a lost ....everything happens in the game count as part of the team performance. You don't pick a team against the other just based on offense or defense alone.

If the Falcon pick lost, it is the wrong pick. A good pick is the pick that "win" regardless of how it is won.



We agree to disagree. Understanding how games are played out helps you moving forward and gives you an advantage in the future.


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