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WEEK 13

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Posted: #101
Let's get them today guys! Waiting for inactives / line moves on the late slate.
 
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Posted: #102
FYI suuma, 2 defensive starters who were no where on the injury report for the Bears are out.

Adrian Amos, starting safety who hasn't missed a game all year.
Jonathon Bullard, starting DE
 
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Posted: #103
Like Seatlle and Falcons.G Men struggle to score on road
 
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Posted: #104
Good Luck  Suuma!
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

FYI suuma, 2 defensive starters who were no where on the injury report for the Bears are out.

Adrian Amos, starting safety who hasn't missed a game all year.
Jonathon Bullard, starting DE


I don't wanna get involved in this game. SF is a huge Pro side today though. BOL bud!
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I am done talking about that. If people think teams bring the exact same effort each week - they live in a dreamland and I have no problem keeping them there.

SUMMA, of course teams,don't bring the same effort each week. But the problem u have, and we all have, is knowing when that will be. From the numbers,you presented, the people value,statistically on the difference is either .20 one tail, or .40 two tail ... which translates to pure speculation. You have great insight into games, and I appreciate your creativity and knowledge, but there is,simply no verifiable way of saying that sandwich games make a difference. To say that we would need about 500 more games in the,second sample, and similar differences in the samples too. Keep up your good work.
 
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Posted: #107
In my last post it should read p value, not people value
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:


SUMMA, of course teams,don't bring the same effort each week. But the problem u have, and we all have, is knowing when that will be. From the numbers,you presented, the people value,statistically on the difference is either .20 one tail, or .40 two tail ... which translates to pure speculation. You have great insight into games, and I appreciate your creativity and knowledge, but there is,simply no verifiable way of saying that sandwich games make a difference. To say that we would need about 500 more games in the,second sample, and similar differences in the samples too. Keep up your good work.


I have no problem. All I am doing is making an educated guess on the psychologial and motivational factors when capping games. At the end I am right more often than not.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I have no problem. All I am doing is making an educated guess on the psychologial and motivational factors when capping games. At the end I am right more often than not.

And that is,why u are good more than not. But in my world, I want to have  verifiable proof statistically. That is how I built my system. It is how,we sent a man to the moon, and cured many diseases. With hypothesis testing and statistical validation we are empowered to see much farther than usually possible with educated guesses alone. In fact, an educated guess is a hypothesis, and a,superb starting point. With statistics, we just seal the deal more precisely. I'm not at all slamming u. I love your writeups... I'm just proposing an alternative rigorous approach that uses the tools of scientific inquiry to predict. 
 
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Posted: #110
Bol today Suuma
 
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Posted: #111
BOL this season Suuma
 
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Posted: #112
Looking ugly so far.

Late:

BUF +3 -110
 
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Posted: #113
Offensive points:

Falcons 28
Chiefs 13
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

 The Chiefs just played an emotional full five quarters on SNF at Denver and won an overtime thriller. You know the trend - road teams who played five full quarters (off a tie) are 0-9 SUATS, losing by 16.7 PPG. It's not just a letdown spot, they also have a TNF game vs. Oakland on deck. I don't see them being 100% focused this week.

How is your sandwich tasting?  A little salty?
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


How is your sandwich tasting?  A little salty?




You're a scumbag.
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:





You're a scumbag.

Would you have preferred "I told you so."?
 
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Posted: #117
SD -3 -120
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


How is your sandwich tasting?  A little salty?

Probably better than your posted -5u day I guess.
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:


Probably better than your posted -5u day I guess.

Ok, so you are not going to admit your silly theory is hogwash?

You can't even insult me properly:
Losing 5u on 23u wagered is better than losing 3u on 4u wagered.
 
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Posted: #120
Summa seriously ??, your a bad capper. Idk what all the love for you is about, how many units are you down so far?
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


Ok, so you are not going to admit your silly theory is hogwash?

You can't even insult me properly:
Losing 5u on 23u wagered is better than losing 3u on 4u wagered.

So I should admit that my theory (that was one of several angles) which I have proved you with historic scoring margins is 'hogwash' when it was one game in which that certain team got outgained 13-28 offensively? 

Covers at its best.
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Situational spots aren't automatic plays on a certain team. They have to be put into perspective of the whole game. A Football game isn't just won by talent discrepancy or certain matchups. It's also won in the heads of the players. Preparation and focus plays a big role in sports.

Regarding the sandwich spot of KC:

Road teams in general:

2903-4023 (41.9%), scoring margin 19.8 - 22.6 (-2.8)

Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing vs. an interconference opponent:

94-146 SU (39.2%), scoring margin 19.1 - 23.5 (-4.3)


Road teams in a divisional sandwich spot playing an interconference team lose by 1.5 PPG more than standard road teams.

This is your proof? LMFAO, a 3.5% sample size?  Also two problems.  

P1. Your data shows SU, I didn't know we were arguing about ML bets, I thought this had to do with ATS bets?

P2. Just because there is a divisional rival in 2 weeks does not mean it is a MEANINGFUL game, it could be the Cleveland Browns FFS!  Is this your definition of Sandwich Game?  Looking forward to playing the Cleveland Browns in 2 weeks when your opponent this week is 10x better?
 
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Posted: #123
I suppose next you are going to tell us the Offensive Players fell victim to the SANDWICH CURSE.  But the Defensive Players obviously didn't and actually focused on the game at hand since they are immune to curses made up of tasty SANDWICHES?
 
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Posted: #124
It just smells an awful lot like cherry picked stats, I commend your effort to dig up those stats, but it's a square peg being forced into a round hole.
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:


Probably better than your posted -5u day I guess.




This dude is a retread troll who just starting keeping his record. Hopefully he contracts AIDS tonight.
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