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WEEK 2 -- Money Line UNDERDOG

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Going back to the well again with Atlanta this week +9 and on the money line +360.
 
Similar to my statement on last weeks game, this game will be won on the ground with Michael Turner.  Will he rush for 220 against this TB defense on the road?  He might....give me a reason he wont.  Norwood is a huge piece to this offense as well and will get his share of successful carries.  The offensive line actually looked impressive last week and gave Ryan time to be effective.
 
On defense, two words:  John Abraham.  Probably the best DE in the NFL.....3 sacks last week on Detroit and will no doubt disrupt this offense.  Linebacking core is finally solid again and ATL should rack up a good handful of sacks on Sunday.  Defensive backs match up 110% better (major heigth mismatch last week with Calvin J. and Williams) with the TB receivers who dont produce many points to begin with.
 
ATL +9 $525 to win $500
ATL ML $300 to win $1080 (+$360)
 
Let the:  "betting with your heart, not your head"  "you're a homer" and hate posts begin. 
 
Good luck this week to everyone.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
I'll be the first one to admit I never thought BALT would win week one with Joey Flacco...so I have been re-taught the lesson and this is it:
It's VERY tough to win an NFL game on the road...period. Hard when you are full of talent, VERY hard when you are led by a rookie QB entering a div. rival AFTER they drop their first game.
TB looked shaky and Gruden admitted his culpability in the offensive play-calling.
You will see Garcia to his receivers like Galloway get better this week.
As for Turner, he will run into a real defense instead of the whipped cream Lions D. Don't be expecting 200 on the ground again.
If they force Ryan to win the game, it could get ugly. Cover II is too much for a rookie to handle on the road with that crowd.
TB defense at home is gonna be ANGRY. They allowed WAY to many yards to N.O. and in my opinion the Bucs coulda and shoulda won that game.
The +9 is a stretch but if ATL plays a PERFECT game attainable, the ML is out to lunch.
I bid you good luck sir. Seriously.
 
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Posted: #3
Points all well taken, mickyg.  Nice reply.  I will strongly disagree with you that ATL needs to play a "PERFECT game" to just cover the 9. Thats an interesting comment.
 
We'll talk more on Sunday around 8PM.
 
Good luck to you this week.
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
i like +9 easily but ml is tuff. hope you get it man that would be a good catch
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Thanks, sarava.  After watching last weeks game, I honestly think, and believe, that the Falcons can get the outright win on Sunday.  Oddsmakers put a money line out there each week....because its possible.  Good luck this week.
 
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Posted: #6
Glad I was able to get this in early this morning prior to the announcement that Garcia was out and Greise named the starter.  I foresee 4+ sacks on this immobile QB.  Good luck everyone.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
There is next to no downside to Griese taking over. He is a vet who will manage the offense. ATL still must deal with the fact hey have a rookie QB on the road in one of the toughest road venues on their schedule.
As mentioned, +9 sounds like a lot, but TB wins this one by 10.
 
The only way I see an upset here is if TB commits HUGE turnovers leading to points...this aint yer Det Lions defense.
 
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Posted: #8
Just because TB is going to a backup qb, still doesn't mean Matt Ryan can score on the road against this Defense.

I have already played the Under 38, and might take a stab at TB -7 or -6, depending on where it ends up.
 
MVP
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Nicky-Hotsaw:

Glad I was able to get this in early this morning prior to the announcement that Garcia was out and Greise named the starter.  I foresee 4+ sacks on this immobile QB.  Good luck everyone.




The Falcons couldn't get 4 sacks AT HOME last week against the brutal Lions offensive line and Jon Kitna when the Lions were basically in pass mode the entire game. Kitna had also been sacked 117 times the past two seasons. How are they going to get 4 sacks on the road in Tampa's home opener against a pretty good offensive line?

Tampa's Cover 2 defenses messes up experienced QB's (especially at home), so how is Matt Ryan going to do? Monte Kiffin must be licking his chops at the prospect of having a rookie QB making his first ever road start coming to town.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
 "Tampa's Cover 2 defenses messes up experienced QB's (especially at home), so how is Matt Ryan going to do?"
 
That Cover 2 defense you refer to gave up 331 passing yards to Drew Brees and the Saints last Sunday.  WORST in the NFL last week.  I certainly consider Brees an experienced QB.  But you're telling me that their Cover 2 is only effective at home?  I see.
 
I dont believe, or never stated that Matt Ryan has to / will score alot against this defense.  Much like last week, he'll need to another great job of reading the defense, get rid of the ball quickly (and accurately), make good exchanges to Turner and Norwood and NOT throw any interceptionss.  Thats it.  One passing TD last week was good enough to get the job done.....should be the case this week, too.
 
You may laugh now, but this offense is going to give EVERY team it plays this year (home and on the road) fits. Assuming they stay healthy, of course.  An incredible backfield and an offensive game plan that focuses on the run will do nothing but improve the passing game. 
 
ATL +9 $525 to win $500
ATL ML $300 to win $1080 (+$360)
 
Good luck.
 
 
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11

tampa will kill atlanta...

 

34 - 9

 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Nicky-Hotsaw:

Thanks, sarava.  After watching last weeks game, I honestly think, and believe, that the Falcons can get the outright win on Sunday.  Oddsmakers put a money line out there each week....because its possible.  Good luck this week.
no, they put a moneyline up to take action.
 
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Posted: #13
can you say homer??? lol
 
some of these commentsin here are insane...Tampa rolls 24-3
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
if you want a juicy ML bet that has a shot take SF or Mia...i bet one of those teams win
 
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Posted: #15
I would love to know which of my comments are "insane".  I am definitley a Falcons fan, but also a fan of making money.  I got bashed in my post last week for saying ATL plus the points and on the money line.  That one turned out OK, I think.
 
Keep the shit talk coming!  I'll be laughing all the way to the bank again come Sunday night.
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
funny that you would view Garcia as a 'mobile' QB...I don't think they lose that much without him. better management etc. but mobility I don't see.
 
BOL either way
 
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Posted: #17
Line is now available at Tampa -7,  I think Atlanta shows their true colors and get pounded by Grudens boys with an easy cover of over a 10 point margin of victory for the BUCS
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
This is awesome.  I cant wait until Sunday.  Good luck to everyone who is on the Falcons + the pts. and the money line. 
 
ATL +9 $525 to win $500
ATL ML $300 to win $1080 (+$360)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
I took Atl ML last week as well. 
 
Trying to ride the hype of a big win at home with taking them again this week. Although not wagering as much. This could be a close game either way. Griese coming in is not much of a loss for TB. He has shown he can hook up with Galloway in the past.
 
On the other side, if Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood can get on a nice roll this Sunday. It could open up the passing game for Atl. This is a tough division game that could come down to a 4th quarter field goal. 
 
Atl +9 will be my play
Small wager Atl ML
 
My 2 cents.  GL to all this weekend    
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
I hope it does come down to a late fourth quarter FG....a Jason Elam FG.  Wont need it though....Falcons win by 9.
 
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Posted: #21
good luck.  Hope the former BC grad lights it up!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #22
no way ATL wins this game.  only chance for a cover is the fact that Brian Greasy-nuts is starting, and he's as ancient as the abacus.

GL w/ ur pick, but Im gonna tease TB down with some other play.



 
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Posted: #23
Atl covers here...could very well win outright!
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by Nicky-Hotsaw:

Going back to the well again with Atlanta this week +9 and on the money line +360.
 
Similar to my statement on last weeks game, this game will be won on the ground with Michael Turner.  Will he rush for 220 against this TB defense on the road?  He might....give me a reason he wont.  Norwood is a huge piece to this offense as well and will get his share of successful carries.  The offensive line actually looked impressive last week and gave Ryan time to be effective.
 
On defense, two words:  John Abraham.  Probably the best DE in the NFL.....3 sacks last week on Detroit and will no doubt disrupt this offense.  Linebacking core is finally solid again and ATL should rack up a good handful of sacks on Sunday.  Defensive backs match up 110% better (major heigth mismatch last week with Calvin J. and Williams) with the TB receivers who dont produce many points to begin with.
 
ATL +9 $525 to win $500
ATL ML $300 to win $1080 (+$360)
 
Let the:  "betting with your heart, not your head"  "you're a homer" and hate posts begin. 
 
Good luck this week to everyone.
 

Actually, you have it backwards. Give me reasons why he'll rush for 200 yards. I think it's completely ridiculous if you go into a game expecting a RB to have 200 yards.

Don't have the attitude that just because Atlanta won outright last week they will this week. That was at home against the swiss cheese D of the Lions. Not quite the same as going into Tampa and taking on Monte Kiffins D

 
 
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Posted: #25
Oh, and forgot to add.....HOMER
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