Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
NE -3 or better: Don't give BB points at home! Since week 4 of 2001, the Pats are 11-1 ATS as home dogs, winning more than a TD on avg. Sure it was Tom Brady, but there are 21 other players and the coaching staff on the field. Bill O'Brien is 1-4 SUATS in regular season prime time games. The lookahead line to this game was Pats -8 with Brady and -3.5 with Garoppolo. The line opened at Texans -1.5. Is Brissett a 5pt drop-off from Garoppolo? I don't think so. This Patriots defense is GREAT. They held the Cardinals to 21 points despite two fumbles which resulted in 14 points off shorter fields and held the Fins to 3 points at half before pulling the starters. This defense is really good and I think they are better than KC or da Bears. TV broadcasts repeat highlights on Osweiler's dimes on Fuller, but other than that there wasn't much offense. Against the Chiefs, they scored 10 points off fumbles on short fields. With Garoppolo, the Pats once again showed that everyone can run this offense. Give me the home dog Patriots.
NE -3 or better: Don't give BB points at home! Since week 4 of 2001, the Pats are 11-1 ATS as home dogs, winning more than a TD on avg. Sure it was Tom Brady, but there are 21 other players and the coaching staff on the field. Bill O'Brien is 1-4 SUATS in regular season prime time games. The lookahead line to this game was Pats -8 with Brady and -3.5 with Garoppolo. The line opened at Texans -1.5. Is Brissett a 5pt drop-off from Garoppolo? I don't think so. This Patriots defense is GREAT. They held the Cardinals to 21 points despite two fumbles which resulted in 14 points off shorter fields and held the Fins to 3 points at half before pulling the starters. This defense is really good and I think they are better than KC or da Bears. TV broadcasts repeat highlights on Osweiler's dimes on Fuller, but other than that there wasn't much offense. Against the Chiefs, they scored 10 points off fumbles on short fields. With Garoppolo, the Pats once again showed that everyone can run this offense. Give me the home dog Patriots.
To be fair to the Texans, Osweiler was a couple drops away from really lighting up the scoreboard. Not to mention, they always play ultra-conservative and slow when playing with the lead. I think this will be the first big test for the Texans offense, and I'm excited to see if they can pull it out.
The reason I'm leaning Texans (other than being a Houston fan) is that New England is starting a 3rd string QB in his first start on a short week against a stout Texans team that really attacks the quarterback. The Texans are sacking the QB at the highest rate in the league. Bellicheck will certainly have a game plan that protects his QB and plays to his strengths, but Brissett is still fairly raw and struggled with pressure in college. Texans front seven won't make it easy for him.
The Patriots offense is complex and nuanced, and I don't think a raw rookie 3rd string QB will be prepared or have the precision to run that offense efficiently. Garropolo looked great but he has is in his 3rd year working with this staff. Gronkowski may not even play, and if he does I would imagine he'd be at least somewhat limited.
It's tough to wajor against Bellicheck at home in primetime, but on paper I think the Texans are the favorite to win.
0
Assweiler
Hot Forum Topics
