Posted:
#1
8-9 -1.6u
Bad ending with the Bears loss, just didn't see that coming. Wentz executes Pederson's offense very well, except for a few inaccurate throws. Let's discuss week 3:
Vikings +7.5 -115 (1u)
Couldn't believe the line, I have the Vikes slightly favored on a neutral field. No bigger play because they come off a big SNF win. Is this line an overreaction to Peterson's injury or what is it? Fact is, this offense will be more efficient without Peterson as he is the player who handcuffed them the most in the past. Just in the first two games he ran for 1.6 yards per carry. He needs to run from under center, but this offensive scheme & personal fits much better with more shotgun looks. Now without Peterson, Norv Turner can finally get creative and doesn't pre-determine his offense to feed his star RB with 20+ carries. Just watch them be fine this week.
Dolphins/Browns Over 41.5 -110 (1u)
I expect both teams to score here. Hue Jackson and Cody Kessler have nothing to lose whereas the Dolphins finally play a weak defense. Tannehill should move the ball easily on that defense.
Leans:
Bears +7 or better: Jason Garrett is 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or more points. Jay Cutler is 54-81 ATS, Brian Hoyer is 16-9 ATS. I like getting extra value in a prime time matchup as I expect this game to be close. Cowboys defense looks worse than I expected them to be. Kirk Cousins threw so many horrible passes, it wasn't funny. They should have dropped 35 on Dallas with average QB play. I will get +7 anyway, just watching the line move now.
Bucs -4 / -5: Prime situational spot - Rams coming off their personal Super Bowl, travel across the country and have Arizona on deck whereas the Bucs got embarrassed and should be extra focused. The Rams are 0-4 ATS losing by 13 PPG after a game vs the Seahawks. Last season in week two they traveled to Washington and got hammered, missing tackles here and there. I made this line a bit shorter so I am willing to get a better line than -5.
Chargers -3 or better: I was shocked by this line and am still trying to find arguments against a play on the Chargers. I made this line a -3 and rather -3.5 than -2.5. And now I see consensus numbers of 64% on the Colts. SD isn't getting any respect. I will monitor the Colts injury reports closely but at this point, they are down their first four CBs on the depth chart and there is a questionmark behind Donte Moncrief. This Chargers offense looks unstoppable even without Danny Woodhead who left the game early. They took the gears off in the 2nd half and had a red zone fumble at the end of the first half. They could have scored 50 points on this Jaguars defense which everyone on hear would rank atleast a level higher than the Colts defense. If the Colts don't adapt their offensive scheme, I don't see a chance for them to cover this game. If they let Luck drop deep again while trying to hit vertical isolated routes covered by Hayward, Verrett and company, they will be lost.
Jaguars up to -3: Jags are in a bounceback spot against a team that beat the two bottom feeders of any power ranking after week 2. Hurns and Robinson have a significantly better matchup than last week and the Jags defense is better than what the Ravens got to see in the first two weeks. Flacco could have thrown 4-5 picks last week. +100 for a PK is nice but I am greedy and will wait.
Bills +4 or better: I don't know if I will end up putting my money on this team a 2nd straight week, but I like the spot here. Bills off 10 days rest, new OC, players/owner meeting and Rex Ryan with his back against the wall. Cardinals come off a satisfying blowout win, travelling to play an early interconference east coast game with Rams on deck. While I would take Cards -4 on a neutral field in a neutral situation everytime, I smell a close game here. The Bills didn't play with their hearts vs. the Jets, I am truly expecting a different body language this time. But than again, it's the Bills.
NE -3 or better: Don't give BB points at home! Since week 4 of 2001, the Pats are 11-1 ATS as home dogs, winning more than a TD on avg. Sure it was Tom Brady, but there are 21 other players and the coaching staff on the field. Bill O'Brien is 1-4 SUATS in regular season prime time games. The lookahead line to this game was Pats -8 with Brady and -3.5 with Garoppolo. The line opened at Texans -1.5. Is Brissett a 5pt drop-off from Garoppolo? I don't think so. This Patriots defense is GREAT. They held the Cardinals to 21 points despite two fumbles which resulted in 14 points off shorter fields and held the Fins to 3 points at half before pulling the starters. This defense is really good and I think they are better than KC or da Bears. TV broadcasts repeat highlights on Osweiler's dimes on Fuller, but other than that there wasn't much offense. Against the Chiefs, they scored 10 points off fumbles on short fields. With Garoppolo, the Pats once again showed that everyone can run this offense. Give me the home dog Patriots.
Let's talk some Football!
Bad ending with the Bears loss, just didn't see that coming. Wentz executes Pederson's offense very well, except for a few inaccurate throws. Let's discuss week 3:
Vikings +7.5 -115 (1u)
Couldn't believe the line, I have the Vikes slightly favored on a neutral field. No bigger play because they come off a big SNF win. Is this line an overreaction to Peterson's injury or what is it? Fact is, this offense will be more efficient without Peterson as he is the player who handcuffed them the most in the past. Just in the first two games he ran for 1.6 yards per carry. He needs to run from under center, but this offensive scheme & personal fits much better with more shotgun looks. Now without Peterson, Norv Turner can finally get creative and doesn't pre-determine his offense to feed his star RB with 20+ carries. Just watch them be fine this week.
Dolphins/Browns Over 41.5 -110 (1u)
I expect both teams to score here. Hue Jackson and Cody Kessler have nothing to lose whereas the Dolphins finally play a weak defense. Tannehill should move the ball easily on that defense.
Leans:
Bears +7 or better: Jason Garrett is 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or more points. Jay Cutler is 54-81 ATS, Brian Hoyer is 16-9 ATS. I like getting extra value in a prime time matchup as I expect this game to be close. Cowboys defense looks worse than I expected them to be. Kirk Cousins threw so many horrible passes, it wasn't funny. They should have dropped 35 on Dallas with average QB play. I will get +7 anyway, just watching the line move now.
Bucs -4 / -5: Prime situational spot - Rams coming off their personal Super Bowl, travel across the country and have Arizona on deck whereas the Bucs got embarrassed and should be extra focused. The Rams are 0-4 ATS losing by 13 PPG after a game vs the Seahawks. Last season in week two they traveled to Washington and got hammered, missing tackles here and there. I made this line a bit shorter so I am willing to get a better line than -5.
Chargers -3 or better: I was shocked by this line and am still trying to find arguments against a play on the Chargers. I made this line a -3 and rather -3.5 than -2.5. And now I see consensus numbers of 64% on the Colts. SD isn't getting any respect. I will monitor the Colts injury reports closely but at this point, they are down their first four CBs on the depth chart and there is a questionmark behind Donte Moncrief. This Chargers offense looks unstoppable even without Danny Woodhead who left the game early. They took the gears off in the 2nd half and had a red zone fumble at the end of the first half. They could have scored 50 points on this Jaguars defense which everyone on hear would rank atleast a level higher than the Colts defense. If the Colts don't adapt their offensive scheme, I don't see a chance for them to cover this game. If they let Luck drop deep again while trying to hit vertical isolated routes covered by Hayward, Verrett and company, they will be lost.
Jaguars up to -3: Jags are in a bounceback spot against a team that beat the two bottom feeders of any power ranking after week 2. Hurns and Robinson have a significantly better matchup than last week and the Jags defense is better than what the Ravens got to see in the first two weeks. Flacco could have thrown 4-5 picks last week. +100 for a PK is nice but I am greedy and will wait.
Bills +4 or better: I don't know if I will end up putting my money on this team a 2nd straight week, but I like the spot here. Bills off 10 days rest, new OC, players/owner meeting and Rex Ryan with his back against the wall. Cardinals come off a satisfying blowout win, travelling to play an early interconference east coast game with Rams on deck. While I would take Cards -4 on a neutral field in a neutral situation everytime, I smell a close game here. The Bills didn't play with their hearts vs. the Jets, I am truly expecting a different body language this time. But than again, it's the Bills.
NE -3 or better: Don't give BB points at home! Since week 4 of 2001, the Pats are 11-1 ATS as home dogs, winning more than a TD on avg. Sure it was Tom Brady, but there are 21 other players and the coaching staff on the field. Bill O'Brien is 1-4 SUATS in regular season prime time games. The lookahead line to this game was Pats -8 with Brady and -3.5 with Garoppolo. The line opened at Texans -1.5. Is Brissett a 5pt drop-off from Garoppolo? I don't think so. This Patriots defense is GREAT. They held the Cardinals to 21 points despite two fumbles which resulted in 14 points off shorter fields and held the Fins to 3 points at half before pulling the starters. This defense is really good and I think they are better than KC or da Bears. TV broadcasts repeat highlights on Osweiler's dimes on Fuller, but other than that there wasn't much offense. Against the Chiefs, they scored 10 points off fumbles on short fields. With Garoppolo, the Pats once again showed that everyone can run this offense. Give me the home dog Patriots.
Let's talk some Football!
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