Week 4: 4 team 13 point teaser teaser thread (3-0 +4 units)

Great job everyone... alot of good contributions early... and DiscoD coming through in the end with the right picks...

I hope that my thread made you money last week and I hope to repeat it...   including preseason I am 7-0 in 7 weeks of teasers....

Lets review...

Guidelines

1.  One teaser a week, maximum of 4 picks... I would rather bet twice as much then bet 2 teasers...

2. Sides only

3. 4 team 13 point teasers are -120 or no play...

Preferences...

1. Get good numbers and avoid 3 and 7

2.  I am willing to cross the zero to get good numbers

3.  Lower scoring games gives more value to the +13 points ATS so I always start there....

So here we go...

NO -1

This jumps out at me becasue this is basically a moneyline play and you usually get more value from a teaser then a money parlay with 12.5-15.5 point favs...

Any more ideas or suggestions?

Baltimore +14.5

Balt/Pitt should be low scoring defense slugfest, as usual

New to this thread, but I would like to try. I have a choice of 12 or 14 point teasers. I chose 12.

Oakland +15 (Coming off a game they lose by a missed FG!)

SD +3 (Got surprised last week. Better team than Ariz.)

buffalo +18.5? should be a game with a lot of running from both sides and both have good defenses so should be low scoring... jets also playing second road game in a row and 3rd division game in a row on top of the first week game against a tough baltimore squad.. jets should def not have as much emotion for this game after Balt, NE, Miami, now going to buffalo.. home division dog of 18.5 with most likely low scoring game seems solid to me..

i like this thread im going to keep my eye on this for final play

 

thanks guys   i like

w/out a ton of research & first glance i really like...

1.  carolina +28 - falcons had 202 yards rushing w/ turner & snelling, can imagine that stewart & williams will be getting a ton of touches & the gameplan will be quick check down routes for clausen to keep them out of trouble.  I'm sure NO wins, but by 4 TD's?  That offense can put the points up but Carolina has an ok defense & 2 great backs that should run all over that defense & keep the clock ticking.

2.  Jets +8.5 -  i like the jets to win s/u even on the road in buffalo.  buffalo has to play there best game to win it, they very well could win but not by more than a touchdown.

3.  Texans +10 - even w/out Andre the Raiders aren't gonna blow out the texans..  another game where the raiders could win straight up or cover the original #, but the texans should be able to keep this within 10

4.  Skins +20...   Donavon vs. the old squad catching 20. 


Looks like you're on fire w/ the teasers & that you've been doing great w/ them....  I noticed that you play them on Dimes, I love playing teasers there as there is so many different options to choose from..  Have you ever thought of taking a college game or 2 & making it a 5 or 6 teamer or else buying less points than 13...  The reason i ask is because some of the payouts are just rediculous--

this past weekend i hit a 6 team 10.5 pt. teaser (ties reduce)
Vikes pk, Ravens -2.5, Colts +4.5, Jets +11.5, Cowboys +13 & Eagles +7.5 --- it payed out +235.  I like your idea of only paying -120 & only having to hit 4 teams catching 13, just was curious if you looked at other options...  I only got down for .5 unit on that teaser cuz i know that crazy crap can happen--  sorry a lot of random words & thoughts,, it's late just wanted to throw some of these ideas out there for you as it seems like you're big into the teasers--  BOL whatever you decide for week 4 & keep tearing it up bringing home that cash!! 

love 13 point teasers

balt +14.5  with the over under set at only 34.5  this game is perfect for 13 pt teaser  i dont see batch beating a good ravens D by more than 2 tds

gb  -??   line will prolly will be between 14-16  but coming off a monday night loss and playing a horrible lions team at home  gb will have no problem winning by at least a fg

nyj +8  buffalo looked better last week but it was against a questionable new england D  wont be as easy against the jets  i dont see any way buff wins by more than a td

new orl -.5  gotta like new orl coming off a loss at home and playing a team with no qb   new orl will be too much for carolina

 

i also usually like to take the primetime games  it seems like the teams are usually up for those games making a blowout less likely  although im not a fan of this weeks primetime games

good luck to all

 

pitt, saints, packers, jets

BAL was the scariest game to me last watching the ticker... I did not get to watch the game...

Did anyone see how CLE was able to do so well against the BAL defense and keep the game close?

I am not going to bet BAL until I get a better feel for what happened...  But with that said, that is a great number in what might be a lower scoring match up...

But I actually see this game with at least one and maybe both teams scoring over 20 points...

What about...

Saints -2.5 - Divisional matchup, saints want this after losing in OT by a FG
Colts +3.5 - Jags? nuff' said..
GB (-2.5?) - hopefully - Coming off a loss, they will not lose two in a row especially to the lowly bills
Chargers +3.5 - After a tough away game in seattle, they will take this at home against Derek Anderson..

Other possibilities..
Broncos +19.5
Bengals +9.5
Jets +8

What are your thoughts?

I meant the lowly lions.. not bills.. even tho they're both shitty teams wearing the color blue..

Saints -.5/-1 is a great start, followed by the Jets getting 8/8.5

nice run you are on. Enjoy it............

Skins +20       GB -2.5     NE +11     Denver +20.5

GB -1.5

NO -.5

Jets +8.5

Seattle +12

Seattle is a must imo.....Rams are 2-27 straight up their last 29 and just won their first home game under new coach....2 wins isnt out of the question, but as a straight bet with Seattle +12 it would probably be the biggest bet of my life

I love this thread

Tennessee looks good at home.. Chris Johnson factor!

First glance...

GB -1.5 - GB losing last nite helps as GB won't lack focus.  Det's Best is hurting.  5 dimes shade their lines to -3 so may have to use BD to get this line.

Pitts +11.5 - Lot more comfortable w/ Pitts won't lose by 10+ at home vs Bal losing by 2 TD.  Hillis ran pretty good on Bal D last wk.  I can see Pitts losing as they're more than happy w/ 3-1 w/o Ben but not 10+ as that D is really good.

NO -.5 - NO off a loss and playing at home against rookie QB.

I would suggest taking the 12.5 line if you get to put your SD bet at +3.5... huge difference on teasers...

Broncos +19.5
Ravens +14.5
Niners +20
Saints -0.5

Tell me about the Colts, Jags, nuff said comment...

Im looking at the last 2 years (last 4 games)...

Last year in week one IND beat JAX 14-12 (2 points)... in their second match up they won by 5 points...

year before that JAX and IND split...  JAX won the first match up by
2 points and lost the second by 7...

So if you average out the scores, the IND has out scored JAX by on average by 3 points a game...

Based on history, I feel safer with JAX +21.5...  Then IND +3.5 in a match up that historically averages out to IND winning by an FG (3 points)...

Saints -.5

Last year is last year.. and this is a new year.. historically, Colts tend to start out slow at the beginning of the year by either losing or not covering the spread - I'd have to say this is largely due to the fact that they don't utilize their first stringers too much in preseason..

The first meeting two years ago.. Manning was coming off knee surgery and did not take on preseason snap..Colts covered the spread (-5.5) and won by 7 the second game that year...

The first meeting last year.. they won by only 2.. and it was the first game of the regular season.. again.. Colts typically starts out slow due to the lack of preseason play.. Also.. they covered the spread (-3.5) and won by 4 later on during that season in the second matchup..

As for this year.. the Jags just flat out looks bad.. their offensive line isn't what it used to be.. Sunday.. the Eagles sacked Garrard SIX TIMES.. and hurried him for whatever many times.. I'm from philly and I personally watched the whole game.. The Jags do not seem into it from the very beginning.. now with the colts.. they have Mathis and Freeney coming off the edges which is a key matchup to watch for..

I know this is a divisional matchup game.. but not all divisional games will be close.. that just gives Manning even more motivation and incentive to try and win this game.. Plus Colts play KC at home the following week.. so definitely not some sort of "look ahead" game for the Colts..

Pitt under 47 1/2                                                                      

Bengale over 24 1/2

Saints PK

Alt under 55

 

Good thread

Looks like a good week for special teasers, but you never know with all the parity these days. So far liking these best:

Early gms:

Jets +8, Pitt/Balty over 21.5, Cincy/cleve over 24.5, NO -.5, GB -1.5

Late & SNF/MNF:

SDG/AZ over 32, Wash/Philly over 30, Pats +12, Pats/Buff over 32.5

GL to all & let's come up with some winners! Will keep an eye on this thread