balt +14.5 with the over under set at only 34.5 this game is perfect for 13 pt teaser i dont see batch beating a good ravens D by more than 2 tds
gb -?? line will prolly will be between 14-16 but coming off a monday night loss and playing a horrible lions team at home gb will have no problem winning by at least a fg
nyj +8 buffalo looked better last week but it was against a questionable new england D wont be as easy against the jets i dont see any way buff wins by more than a td
new orl -.5 gotta like new orl coming off a loss at home and playing a team with no qb new orl will be too much for carolina
i also usually like to take the primetime games it seems like the teams are usually up for those games making a blowout less likely although im not a fan of this weeks primetime games
good luck to all
this has the formula for a winner... good numbers, good situations...
Take a look at what GMI said about BAL and rice tho...
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Quote Originally Posted by moble1am84:
love 13 point teasers
balt +14.5 with the over under set at only 34.5 this game is perfect for 13 pt teaser i dont see batch beating a good ravens D by more than 2 tds
gb -?? line will prolly will be between 14-16 but coming off a monday night loss and playing a horrible lions team at home gb will have no problem winning by at least a fg
nyj +8 buffalo looked better last week but it was against a questionable new england D wont be as easy against the jets i dont see any way buff wins by more than a td
new orl -.5 gotta like new orl coming off a loss at home and playing a team with no qb new orl will be too much for carolina
i also usually like to take the primetime games it seems like the teams are usually up for those games making a blowout less likely although im not a fan of this weeks primetime games
good luck to all
this has the formula for a winner... good numbers, good situations...
Take a look at what GMI said about BAL and rice tho...
i'm liking Packs -1 (they will not lose this game due to what happened on MNF especially they're at home), Jets +8, Colts +6... Can't seem to decide on the 4th pick. i'm not too comfortable with Saints.. just feel Panthers could win SU. anyways I lend towards ATL +6. Niners are having some problem especially with their useless coach Singletary and the useless plays he calls.. I'm sensing players are now not willing to go all out for him. IMO another loss will cause niners having a new coach and that's what the players want.
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i'm liking Packs -1 (they will not lose this game due to what happened on MNF especially they're at home), Jets +8, Colts +6... Can't seem to decide on the 4th pick. i'm not too comfortable with Saints.. just feel Panthers could win SU. anyways I lend towards ATL +6. Niners are having some problem especially with their useless coach Singletary and the useless plays he calls.. I'm sensing players are now not willing to go all out for him. IMO another loss will cause niners having a new coach and that's what the players want.
sorry, I just cant get excited about a THIRTEEN point teaser, especially with four games. Yes, it might keep you from losing money, but risking $100 to win $70 dollars is just lame. If you dont like risk, why even gamble?? If you do research and like your picks, why not a 6 pt teaser or better yet, moneyline it or even go with 3 game parlay. If you have confidence in your picks, get paid!! No offense to you that like these 13.5 pt teasers, whatever works eh?
Peace,
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sorry, I just cant get excited about a THIRTEEN point teaser, especially with four games. Yes, it might keep you from losing money, but risking $100 to win $70 dollars is just lame. If you dont like risk, why even gamble?? If you do research and like your picks, why not a 6 pt teaser or better yet, moneyline it or even go with 3 game parlay. If you have confidence in your picks, get paid!! No offense to you that like these 13.5 pt teasers, whatever works eh?
Colts+5 (below the zero line but for Indy vs the Jags this is a clean risk, Peyton almost guarentees a +5 cover vs these Jags)
Chargers+4 (Again below zero but SD at home is better than these Cards on the road who were lucky to survive at home vs the Raiders, SD can lose by a FG here and still win)
Bears+17 (I don't see the NYG outscoring Chicago enough to win by more than 17 vs the Bears who are 3-1 SU and ATS in L-4 vs NYG and 2-0 SU and ATS L-2 in New Jersey)
Browns+16 (L-6 meetings decided by 9 pts or less and both teams scoring and allowing under 20 pts on average. I think the Browns will win this game also, just my opinion)
I'm laying off teasers this year but would play this if forced to decide.
Good Luck to All
I agree it's a good week to cross the zero... Don't normally like to but the Colts/Chargers seem like a good spot. Throw in some 'moneyline' plays like NO/GB and you have a winner I reckon. Might not be my final play but anything along those lines looks good.
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Quote Originally Posted by Skubishack:
Colts+5 (below the zero line but for Indy vs the Jags this is a clean risk, Peyton almost guarentees a +5 cover vs these Jags)
Chargers+4 (Again below zero but SD at home is better than these Cards on the road who were lucky to survive at home vs the Raiders, SD can lose by a FG here and still win)
Bears+17 (I don't see the NYG outscoring Chicago enough to win by more than 17 vs the Bears who are 3-1 SU and ATS in L-4 vs NYG and 2-0 SU and ATS L-2 in New Jersey)
Browns+16 (L-6 meetings decided by 9 pts or less and both teams scoring and allowing under 20 pts on average. I think the Browns will win this game also, just my opinion)
I'm laying off teasers this year but would play this if forced to decide.
Good Luck to All
I agree it's a good week to cross the zero... Don't normally like to but the Colts/Chargers seem like a good spot. Throw in some 'moneyline' plays like NO/GB and you have a winner I reckon. Might not be my final play but anything along those lines looks good.
I have 3 SportBooks. I use one just for Teasers. BETPOP.com check out their teaser odds, best I can find plus they have a blackjack teaser good for 21 points. Its hard to lose in the NFL when your swinging 21 points.They not a real popular book but they pay out and speak perfect english
Obviously your looking for close games / good match ups when picking your tease team. I usually dont consider the home vs away factor nearly as much as I do on a straight bet. I play at least 1 teaser a week and 80% of my teaser teams are NFL with all the parity.straight up I perfer college. This week I have a 5tm 14 pt.
Cincy +11 vs Cleveland (better Offense w/ points) Atl. +7.5 vs S.F (better O w/ points) Hou +10.5 vs Oak. (better O w/ points) Pats +13 vs Miami (better O w/ points)
These are the match-ups I look for. Teams with good Q.B's and offenses that are all averaging over 20 points a game or more, stay on the field and all getting at least 7.5 points going up against weaker teams with questionable Q.B.'s and offenses.
My last pick dosent meet my usual match-up standard as much but I like it alot
NYG + 9.5 vs Bears. The Bears have a hot QB and are averaging 22 pts a game and Cutlers throwing for 277 yds a game. As good as that pass attack is the Bears pass defense is giving up 279 Yds a game (4th worst in the NFL) and Eli will pick that apart and score some points. Giants pass defense only giving up 169 yds a game. Also, the Bears are just not thst great team their record indicates. This is a perfect setting for their 1st loss but just in case I still got the 9.5 points.
Good Luck
Mike in Montana
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I have 3 SportBooks. I use one just for Teasers. BETPOP.com check out their teaser odds, best I can find plus they have a blackjack teaser good for 21 points. Its hard to lose in the NFL when your swinging 21 points.They not a real popular book but they pay out and speak perfect english
Obviously your looking for close games / good match ups when picking your tease team. I usually dont consider the home vs away factor nearly as much as I do on a straight bet. I play at least 1 teaser a week and 80% of my teaser teams are NFL with all the parity.straight up I perfer college. This week I have a 5tm 14 pt.
Cincy +11 vs Cleveland (better Offense w/ points) Atl. +7.5 vs S.F (better O w/ points) Hou +10.5 vs Oak. (better O w/ points) Pats +13 vs Miami (better O w/ points)
These are the match-ups I look for. Teams with good Q.B's and offenses that are all averaging over 20 points a game or more, stay on the field and all getting at least 7.5 points going up against weaker teams with questionable Q.B.'s and offenses.
My last pick dosent meet my usual match-up standard as much but I like it alot
NYG + 9.5 vs Bears. The Bears have a hot QB and are averaging 22 pts a game and Cutlers throwing for 277 yds a game. As good as that pass attack is the Bears pass defense is giving up 279 Yds a game (4th worst in the NFL) and Eli will pick that apart and score some points. Giants pass defense only giving up 169 yds a game. Also, the Bears are just not thst great team their record indicates. This is a perfect setting for their 1st loss but just in case I still got the 9.5 points.
I like all of these...I'd say pick 4 of them. I might just make a 7 team teaser play.
Saints -.5
Chargers +4
Broncos +19.5
Bears +17
Packers -1.5
Colts +5
Jets +8
Tell me about your CHI pick... Not the greatest number, but you are getting more then 2 TDs...
Hard for me to understand why this spread is not -3 considering perception how bad NYG has looked and CHI being undefeated... Not sure about this one yet... But I like CHI as a dog because of their ability to play from behind because of their ability to pass...
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Quote Originally Posted by Werker:
I like all of these...I'd say pick 4 of them. I might just make a 7 team teaser play.
Saints -.5
Chargers +4
Broncos +19.5
Bears +17
Packers -1.5
Colts +5
Jets +8
Tell me about your CHI pick... Not the greatest number, but you are getting more then 2 TDs...
Hard for me to understand why this spread is not -3 considering perception how bad NYG has looked and CHI being undefeated... Not sure about this one yet... But I like CHI as a dog because of their ability to play from behind because of their ability to pass...
Last year is last year.. and this is a new year.. historically, Colts tend to start out slow at the beginning of the year by either losing or not covering the spread - I'd have to say this is largely due to the fact that they don't utilize their first stringers too much in preseason..
The first meeting two years ago.. Manning was coming off knee surgery and did not take on preseason snap..Colts covered the spread (-5.5) and won by 7 the second game that year...
The first meeting last year.. they won by only 2.. and it was the first game of the regular season.. again.. Colts typically starts out slow due to the lack of preseason play.. Also.. they covered the spread (-3.5) and won by 4 later on during that season in the second matchup..
As for this year.. the Jags just flat out looks bad.. their offensive line isn't what it used to be.. Sunday.. the Eagles sacked Garrard SIX TIMES.. and hurried him for whatever many times.. I'm from philly and I personally watched the whole game.. The Jags do not seem into it from the very beginning.. now with the colts.. they have Mathis and Freeney coming off the edges which is a key matchup to watch for..
I know this is a divisional matchup game.. but not all divisional games will be close.. that just gives Manning even more motivation and incentive to try and win this game.. Plus Colts play KC at home the following week.. so definitely not some sort of "look ahead" game for the Colts..
Thank you for the response...
"Colts tend to start out slow"
last year IND was 4-1 ATS in the first 5 games...
2008 IND was 3-2 ATS in the first 5 games of the season 2007 IND was 3-2 ATS in the first 5 games of the season
So in the last 3 years they are 10-5 ATS... so basically they have won twice as much in the first 5 weeks...
I do actually agree with you about JAX O-line having troubles against the IND's defensive front...
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Quote Originally Posted by tpham89:
Last year is last year.. and this is a new year.. historically, Colts tend to start out slow at the beginning of the year by either losing or not covering the spread - I'd have to say this is largely due to the fact that they don't utilize their first stringers too much in preseason..
The first meeting two years ago.. Manning was coming off knee surgery and did not take on preseason snap..Colts covered the spread (-5.5) and won by 7 the second game that year...
The first meeting last year.. they won by only 2.. and it was the first game of the regular season.. again.. Colts typically starts out slow due to the lack of preseason play.. Also.. they covered the spread (-3.5) and won by 4 later on during that season in the second matchup..
As for this year.. the Jags just flat out looks bad.. their offensive line isn't what it used to be.. Sunday.. the Eagles sacked Garrard SIX TIMES.. and hurried him for whatever many times.. I'm from philly and I personally watched the whole game.. The Jags do not seem into it from the very beginning.. now with the colts.. they have Mathis and Freeney coming off the edges which is a key matchup to watch for..
I know this is a divisional matchup game.. but not all divisional games will be close.. that just gives Manning even more motivation and incentive to try and win this game.. Plus Colts play KC at home the following week.. so definitely not some sort of "look ahead" game for the Colts..
Thank you for the response...
"Colts tend to start out slow"
last year IND was 4-1 ATS in the first 5 games...
2008 IND was 3-2 ATS in the first 5 games of the season 2007 IND was 3-2 ATS in the first 5 games of the season
So in the last 3 years they are 10-5 ATS... so basically they have won twice as much in the first 5 weeks...
I do actually agree with you about JAX O-line having troubles against the IND's defensive front...
Be careful, a push is considered a loss in 10pts and 13pts teasers !! Balt +14 is not getting 2 touchdowns ( it's more like Balt +13.5). This is when those teasers are juiced -120 or less. I always try to get that 1/2 pt edge: +10.5, +13.5, +14.5, + 17.5...GL Guys
but 7.5 and 3.5 are the most important...
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Quote Originally Posted by Baldies:
Be careful, a push is considered a loss in 10pts and 13pts teasers !! Balt +14 is not getting 2 touchdowns ( it's more like Balt +13.5). This is when those teasers are juiced -120 or less. I always try to get that 1/2 pt edge: +10.5, +13.5, +14.5, + 17.5...GL Guys
We're talking about 10pts-13pts teasers ??..usually it's better to tease up, no?..I don't think having teams at +7.5 or +3.5 in 10-13 pts teasers are good idea.
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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
but 7.5 and 3.5 are the most important...
We're talking about 10pts-13pts teasers ??..usually it's better to tease up, no?..I don't think having teams at +7.5 or +3.5 in 10-13 pts teasers are good idea.
We're talking about 10pts-13pts teasers ??..usually it's better to tease up, no?..I don't think having teams at +7.5 or +3.5 in 10-13 pts teasers are good idea.
I would have to disagree with you on this one... crossing the middle statistically does not make a huge difference...
logically however on a 6-7 point teaser, crossing the zero does not seem to make sense in terms of getting full value of the points...
But considering that the modal (most occurring) point difference is exactly 3 points...
and second most common is 7 points... So to be able to cover those numbers on a team that is favored is good value and good use of the numbers...
better then bad numbers...
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Quote Originally Posted by Baldies:
We're talking about 10pts-13pts teasers ??..usually it's better to tease up, no?..I don't think having teams at +7.5 or +3.5 in 10-13 pts teasers are good idea.
I would have to disagree with you on this one... crossing the middle statistically does not make a huge difference...
logically however on a 6-7 point teaser, crossing the zero does not seem to make sense in terms of getting full value of the points...
But considering that the modal (most occurring) point difference is exactly 3 points...
and second most common is 7 points... So to be able to cover those numbers on a team that is favored is good value and good use of the numbers...
hey guys and gals. I see your 13 point teasers and i just dont see any value in it. 4 games for even money. I like parlays they actually pay well. Take for instance last week i went 5-1 underdog moneyline parlay at 240-1 i'm talking 10 bucks for 2400 I missed on jags but had st louis seattle dallas tennesee and atlanta. and well noted that the chiefs were there. I'm not to be dis heartened though and have another dog party this weekend. I got 6 dogs. ready, raiders, browns, bills, broncos, redskins and bears. why not? and it's a ridiculous 500-1 my 10 for there 5000
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hey guys and gals. I see your 13 point teasers and i just dont see any value in it. 4 games for even money. I like parlays they actually pay well. Take for instance last week i went 5-1 underdog moneyline parlay at 240-1 i'm talking 10 bucks for 2400 I missed on jags but had st louis seattle dallas tennesee and atlanta. and well noted that the chiefs were there. I'm not to be dis heartened though and have another dog party this weekend. I got 6 dogs. ready, raiders, browns, bills, broncos, redskins and bears. why not? and it's a ridiculous 500-1 my 10 for there 5000
hey guys and gals. I see your 13 point teasers and i just dont see any value in it. 4 games for even money. I like parlays they actually pay well. Take for instance last week i went 5-1 underdog moneyline parlay at 240-1 i'm talking 10 bucks for 2400
I assume you know that parlays only pay TRUE odds when you do moneyline bets. So your underdog moneylines are paying the right amount. However, parlays that involve sides (ATS) pay fixed odds, which is less than what you'd get if you bet each game seperately. After realizing the math... I quit doing parlays with games ATS.
As for big point teasers... you're probably right that it's a sucker's bet given the low odds. But the neat thing about big point teasers is for a lot of games, it doesn't matter which team you pick... +13 or -13, because many of the games will fall in between. It's only those games that don't fall in between that you have to pick right.
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Quote Originally Posted by dantheman34:
hey guys and gals. I see your 13 point teasers and i just dont see any value in it. 4 games for even money. I like parlays they actually pay well. Take for instance last week i went 5-1 underdog moneyline parlay at 240-1 i'm talking 10 bucks for 2400
I assume you know that parlays only pay TRUE odds when you do moneyline bets. So your underdog moneylines are paying the right amount. However, parlays that involve sides (ATS) pay fixed odds, which is less than what you'd get if you bet each game seperately. After realizing the math... I quit doing parlays with games ATS.
As for big point teasers... you're probably right that it's a sucker's bet given the low odds. But the neat thing about big point teasers is for a lot of games, it doesn't matter which team you pick... +13 or -13, because many of the games will fall in between. It's only those games that don't fall in between that you have to pick right.
hey guys and gals. I see your 13 point teasers and i just dont see any value in it. 4 games for even money. I like parlays they actually pay well. Take for instance last week i went 5-1 underdog moneyline parlay at 240-1 i'm talking 10 bucks for 2400 I missed on jags but had st louis seattle dallas tennesee and atlanta. and well noted that the chiefs were there. I'm not to be dis heartened though and have another dog party this weekend. I got 6 dogs. ready, raiders, browns, bills, broncos, redskins and bears. why not? and it's a ridiculous 500-1 my 10 for there 5000
to each his own I guess.. whatever works for you.. I personally hit 13 point teasers ALOT more than I hit parlays.
14 pt teaser this week:
Green Bay-PK. With Jahvid Best dinged up and Charles Woodson covering Calvin Johnson with help over the top and a good pass rush, I just cant see GB losing at home after a loss. Though I dont like division games and dont like betting on teams after a physical monday night game, I dont think they lose this game.
N.Y. Jets+9. I'm a pats fan, hate the Jets! But they are just a better team all around than the Bills. Cant imagine them losing by more than a TD.
And thats all I got so far. Need 2 more teams. None of the other NFL games really jump out at me. Might have to throw some college in there. Ohio St-3 very tempting. Also looking at Nevada-6, UTEP-1, Bama+6, Clemson+17.5... I do not love mixing Sat & Sun together, but with a 14 pt teaser I'm looking for as close to a "sure thing" as possible. Of course I will be betting a bunch of games ATS, especially college. NFL is much tougher to win money in my opinion. Good luck everyone!
Jets+9
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Quote Originally Posted by dantheman34:
hey guys and gals. I see your 13 point teasers and i just dont see any value in it. 4 games for even money. I like parlays they actually pay well. Take for instance last week i went 5-1 underdog moneyline parlay at 240-1 i'm talking 10 bucks for 2400 I missed on jags but had st louis seattle dallas tennesee and atlanta. and well noted that the chiefs were there. I'm not to be dis heartened though and have another dog party this weekend. I got 6 dogs. ready, raiders, browns, bills, broncos, redskins and bears. why not? and it's a ridiculous 500-1 my 10 for there 5000
to each his own I guess.. whatever works for you.. I personally hit 13 point teasers ALOT more than I hit parlays.
14 pt teaser this week:
Green Bay-PK. With Jahvid Best dinged up and Charles Woodson covering Calvin Johnson with help over the top and a good pass rush, I just cant see GB losing at home after a loss. Though I dont like division games and dont like betting on teams after a physical monday night game, I dont think they lose this game.
N.Y. Jets+9. I'm a pats fan, hate the Jets! But they are just a better team all around than the Bills. Cant imagine them losing by more than a TD.
And thats all I got so far. Need 2 more teams. None of the other NFL games really jump out at me. Might have to throw some college in there. Ohio St-3 very tempting. Also looking at Nevada-6, UTEP-1, Bama+6, Clemson+17.5... I do not love mixing Sat & Sun together, but with a 14 pt teaser I'm looking for as close to a "sure thing" as possible. Of course I will be betting a bunch of games ATS, especially college. NFL is much tougher to win money in my opinion. Good luck everyone!
I assume you know that parlays only pay TRUE odds when you do moneyline bets. So your underdog moneylines are paying the right amount. However, parlays that involve sides (ATS) pay fixed odds, which is less than what you'd get if you bet each game seperately. After realizing the math... I quit doing parlays with games ATS.
As for big point teasers... you're probably right that it's a sucker's bet given the low odds. But the neat thing about big point teasers is for a lot of games, it doesn't matter which team you pick... +13 or -13, because many of the games will fall in between. It's only those games that don't fall in between that you have to pick right.
I am not sure about your odds on moneyline parlays in terms of the math...
but I do agree with the chances of picks hitting both sides... in fact, those are the types of games I am looking for...
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Quote Originally Posted by Snookslayer:
I assume you know that parlays only pay TRUE odds when you do moneyline bets. So your underdog moneylines are paying the right amount. However, parlays that involve sides (ATS) pay fixed odds, which is less than what you'd get if you bet each game seperately. After realizing the math... I quit doing parlays with games ATS.
As for big point teasers... you're probably right that it's a sucker's bet given the low odds. But the neat thing about big point teasers is for a lot of games, it doesn't matter which team you pick... +13 or -13, because many of the games will fall in between. It's only those games that don't fall in between that you have to pick right.
I am not sure about your odds on moneyline parlays in terms of the math...
but I do agree with the chances of picks hitting both sides... in fact, those are the types of games I am looking for...
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