Posted:
#1
"A pleasant good morning to everyone and welcome to Week 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop! For
those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. Last week was the 3rd straight outright win with the Seahawks' controversial victory over the Pack. I'm sticking with the dogs, but sliding over to a road dog this week. Perhaps the real refs will favor the homers a little less this week unlike their replacement brethren. I'm going to try to take advantage of a couple 4th quarter TD in last week's Broncos/Texans game which prevented a full-blown blowout. Sound familiar? Denver also put up 14 points in the 4th quarter of their Week 2 loss to the Falcons. Not including the 4th quarter, the Broncos offense has put up 18 points in the previous 2 games. The Broncos/Raiders game opened at DEN -5.5 and is now up to -6.5 to -7 thanks to those ignoring the fact that the Raiders play well in Denver to the tune of 6-0 ATS L6. The road team in this match-up is 7-1 ATS L8. OAK is 4-1 L5 meetings. More trends; against division opponents over the past 3 seasons, OAK is 9-4 ATS L13. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, OAK is 8-4 ATS L12. In games with the total between 42.5 to 49, OAK is 12-4 ATS L16. Ok, enough trends...so whatifsports.com runs some sort of computer model like a million times to generate their predictions. They are projecting a close game. Take that for what it's worth. Side note; anyone know if Troy Aikman still does his Efficiency Ratings? Used to really like those, but can't find his 2012 rankings at all. Anyway, I know DEN hasn't looked all that bad; their 2 loses are against strong teams, but perhaps they might take the Raiders lightly with the Patroits next up on the docket, not that I've ever put much stock into the "looking ahead" theory. Willis McGahee was knocked out of last week's game and is limited in practice this week. Subjectively speaking, Manning just hasn't looked right this season. Some of the passes coming out of his hands look really awful, like so bad they are tough to pick-off because the ball is nowhere near the defender and is wobbling uncontrollably. McFadden got it going last week with over a 100 yards rushing vs. the Steelers' D and I see him continuing to play well again this week. Well there you have it, OAK + 6.5 in Denver. Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 5's Sucker Bet brought to you by Tootsie Pop!" 0
careful with only using trends though they can be misleading
I hate to ever be on the opp of your plays
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