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Week 5

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Posted: #101
Weather reports are predicting 100% chance to thunderstorm tonight. I'm rolling with the UNDER on this game myself.

Agree 100% Rogers is the man in bad weather scenarios, I'm more worried about the ball popping out of the receivers  and Lacey's hands, and Minny utilizing Patterson in the run game. I still haven't been able to adjust to this seasons roster shake ups so my reads mean jack ish at the moment.

Keep doing your thing and buck the haters, +80 or so units speaks volumes to your ability.
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


I appreciate your posts, buddy. I can understand the logic behind playing the Bengals this week but I still like New England's defense. They just happened to run into a buzz saw regarding the Chiefs perfect gameplan. We don't ever see Belicheck get out coached so when we do, it's hard to find answers. The Chiefs have the speed in the backfield to be successful with misdirection plays especially when they are efficient in the passing game. Cinci, however has a completely different style than the Chiefs, a style that the Patriots defense matches up well with. Cinci doesn't have a lot of misdirection as their rushing and passing attack are north and south. New England's defense plays well when the play comes to them as was the case against Miami, Minnesota and Oakland. All three of those offenses run downhill as Cincinnati does. I'll finish my thoughts regarding  this game along with some stats in a moment.

Bengals do a lot of stunts, play action, and have multiple backs who do different things very well, allowing for that offense to show various different offensive looks - very similar to the Chiefs.  You also need to consider that the Bengals defense has played exceptional @ home.  Patriots can very well win, because this is an above average spot for them, coming off a loss, @ home, in primetime.  But on a neutral field, Bengals should be favored by 7 points or more, in my humble opinion.  Patriots cannot stretch the field, so there offensive options are somewhat limited.  I expect the Patriots to have some strong defensive play and dink and dunk the clock, but come up short.  Regardless, best of luck on your plays.
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

Weather reports are predicting 100% chance to thunderstorm tonight. I'm rolling with the UNDER on this game myself.

Agree 100% Rogers is the man in bad weather scenarios, I'm more worried about the ball popping out of the receivers  and Lacey's hands, and Minny utilizing Patterson in the run game. I still haven't been able to adjust to this seasons roster shake ups so my reads mean jack ish at the moment.

Keep doing your thing and buck the haters, +80 or so units speaks volumes to your ability.

Thanks Forbes. I wish you the best. If you're thinking of turnovers due to weather conditions, have you thought much of field position? I'm not a fan of unders in rainy conditions but that's me. 
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:


Bengals do a lot of stunts, play action, and have multiple backs who do different things very well, allowing for that offense to show various different offensive looks - very similar to the Chiefs.  You also need to consider that the Bengals defense has played exceptional @ home.  Patriots can very well win, because this is an above average spot for them, coming off a loss, @ home, in primetime.  But on a neutral field, Bengals should be favored by 7 points or more, in my humble opinion.  Patriots cannot stretch the field, so there offensive options are somewhat limited.  I expect the Patriots to have some strong defensive play and dink and dunk the clock, but come up short.  Regardless, best of luck on your plays.

Thanks a lot for your thoughts, much appreciated. Hope we can both win a few bucks this weekend
 
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Posted: #105

Keep up the good work AMD

 
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Posted: #106
GL amd u killin NFL so far keep up the great work love niners, pats , and pack this week also...
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

San Francisco -6  -115   6.9/6New England +1   4.4/4Green Bay -9    4.4/4Buffalo +7 -105   4.2/4


Sorry to bother you. Not knowledgeable in the betting terms. Does 4.4 mean the units? I'm at work so didn't feel like scrolling though to find out when I
 
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Posted: #108

BOL this week 

 
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Posted: #109
like em all AMD! Keep on Trucking my friend!
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


Thanks Forbes. I wish you the best. If you're thinking of turnovers due to weather conditions, have you thought much of field position? I'm not a fan of unders in rainy conditions but that's me. 


I agree.  History shows that most bad weather games go OVER the total because the total gets bet down and the defense is always in the disadvantage in terms of reaction to the offense.  Also, as noted, there are typically more turn overs.  The only exception is both teams were solid defensively and it was a blizzard.

I am leaning to teasing this game G.B. & Over.
 
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Posted: #111
Amd , just want to drop in and say thanks for your break downs.  A lot of respect.  I like the packer as well in this spot.  I think Vikings will get exposed tonight like the Bears last Sunday.  
 
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Posted: #112

This amd guy is the Rickey Henderson of stealin my plays!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #113
Don't know much about NFL but interested in angle of bad weather and the under.      In other sports this is a good angle as bookies are slow to react.  Is this not so in NFL.  
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


San Francisco -6  -115   6.9/6

New England +1   4.4/4

Green Bay -9    4.4/4

Buffalo +7 -105   4.2/4




hey amd first off I want to congrat you on your pick of the chiefs mon night you were right and I was dead wrong obviously. 

 I take my hat off to the chiefs they played an unreal game. Patriots are garbage. 

Now I have a question about your Bills pick. Why do you like them here? They are going into the dome where Detroit plays very well and Detroit has been playing all around very good football they are not the detroit of last year. Bills going with a cold qb in Orton and has to face the #1 D in the nfc. Does that not worry you? I actually like the Lions here. They couldn't stop fitzpatrick image what stafford and megatron will do to them....

Do you think Buff is good for the cover or do you think they win straight up? 
 
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Posted: #115
  
 
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Posted: #116
BOL Bud, great start through 4 weeks, loving your work fella
 
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Posted: #117
Like a lot of same minus Bills.

GL bud
 
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Posted: #118
GL   
 
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Posted: #119
 Keep it up Big Guy 
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Sire:

San Francisco -6  -115   6.9/6New England +1   4.4/4Green Bay -9    4.4/4Buffalo +7 -105   4.2/4

Sorry to bother you. Not knowledgeable in the betting terms. Does 4.4 mean the units? I'm at work so didn't feel like scrolling though to find out when I

Yes 440 to win 400. Gl
 
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Posted: #121
Quote: Originally Posted by TRAIN69]

This amd guy is the Rickey Henderson of stealin my plays!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[/Quote]


Tim Raines

Nice to be on the same buddy, gl

 
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Posted: #122
GL bro.. 

The Pats concern me right now. I know Tom Brady/Bill Belichick etc.. But I really think this team can be oh so thankful that they are in a crap division. I think Cin win this game. Not touching it myself, but I just think the weapons and O line are not good.. 

Nice hit on GB 
 
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Posted: #123
Tim Raines!

 
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Posted: #124
Great picks man, thanks. I've been following your picks for a bit, usually we have the same idea for most games, you just pick more games than me.

What are your thoughts on Steelers -6? 
 
 
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Posted: #125
Thank You Sir 
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