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Week 5

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Legend
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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Ytd  27-12      +84.6




San Francisco -6  -115    6.9/6

New England +1   4.4/4

Buffalo +7 -105    4.2/4

New Orleans -10    4.4/4

Green Bay -9   4.4/4


 
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Posted: #127

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Ytd  27-12      +84.6





San Francisco -6  -115    6.9/6

New England +1   4.4/4

Buffalo +7 -105    4.2/4

New Orleans -10    4.4/4

Green Bay -9   4.4/4

 

I'm with you on san fran and NE. Everything besides that I'm a little shaky on this week. I like way too many favorites. SD, NO, DEN, PIT, NYG, SEA. Do you like any other dogs besides BUF and NE?

BOL this week. Keep that streak going!

 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by johnnysnickers:

I'm with you on san fran and NE. Everything besides that I'm a little shaky on this week. I like way too many favorites. SD, NO, DEN, PIT, NYG, SEA. Do you like any other dogs besides BUF and NE?

BOL this week. Keep that streak going!


I like Arizona and Atlanta. I haven't researched the games in detail which is why they aren't a play yet...busy week. I'll take a look at them tonight and tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #129
Thank you Amd
 
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Posted: #130
amd, you sir have been on fire.  bravo brother on the excellent season thus far! 

amd for president 

amd 
 
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Posted: #131
Gl
 
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Posted: #132
Great call on Green Bay last night Buddy! BOL on your picks this week. I see you have my saints on the board this week. Hopefully the "dome" field advantage will do well for you!!
 
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Posted: #133
I dont think Stanton is ready to go play on the road and beat Manning  who now had a complete set of receivers
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I dont think Stanton is ready to go play on the road and beat Manning  who now had a complete set of receivers

The big, bad Broncos are as fraudulent as the Anaheim Angels. Since 2012, when Manning became the starter of the Broncos, Denver has lost outright 7 times when favored by 7 or more points. I'm not even asking one of the best defenses in the league to win the game. I'm just asking them to cover 8 points (Sportsbook)
 
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Posted: #135
AMD...Like NE and Buffalo....been looking at Chicago getting points....Carolina with no running backs left......Would like your input......Thanks and Keep the great work up.....
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Quote Originally Posted by BangBus:

 I've been tailing your NFL this year Amd.  Can you give me your angle on why you like San Fran -6 over K.C.?  I was thinking now that Jamaal Charles and other players coming back for K.C. that they will be much better....
I look forward to breaking down the Niners game. I'll create a little dialogue on Wednesday,  thanks for the post and good luck this week.


Always love reading your picks and thoughts AMD. Would like to know your thoughts on the KC/SF game. Keep up the good work!!

Cheers!
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


The big, bad Broncos are as fraudulent as the Anaheim Angels. Since 2012, when Manning became the starter of the Broncos, Denver has lost outright 7 times when favored by 7 or more points. I'm not even asking one of the best defenses in the league to win the game. I'm just asking them to cover 8 points (Sportsbook)

Oh, I hear ya brother. I simply think this is probably the best offense AZ is gonna see all year,Broncs have a 4 legit threats in the passing game now that Welker is back, which is gonna stress the Cards secondary. I dont have any faith in Stanton to move the ball successfully, as they have averaged 22 ppg, but even thats misleading....Az doesnt have any real deep threats and Ellington is a middle of the pack rb in this league....

Looking at a 31-17 broncos win....but Ive been wrong before

 

 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Oh, I hear ya brother. I simply think this is probably the best offense AZ is gonna see all year,Broncs have a 4 legit threats in the passing game now that Welker is back, which is gonna stress the Cards secondary. I dont have any faith in Stanton to move the ball successfully, as they have averaged 22 ppg, but even thats misleading....Az doesnt have any real deep threats and Ellington is a middle of the pack rb in this league....

Looking at a 31-17 broncos win....but Ive been wrong before

 



I was on the Bronco's too but I think AMD is on to something. Sagarin ratings pretty much determine how the lines will be set and which team is the "better" team and I've used strength of schedule in the past to determine the winner at a pretty good clip the last 3 seasons (been getting drunk and reading surface stats this season which is reflective of my record).

Any hoo, Sagarin ratings put DEN at 28.26 vs AZ 25.08...give 3 more points to DEN being at home (and having a stronger strength of schedule) and the Bronco's should win by 6 points, not 7. Final score 31-32 DEN vs. 26-27 AZ.

Just my two cents. You do you
 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Oh, I hear ya brother. I simply think this is probably the best offense AZ is gonna see all year,Broncs have a 4 legit threats in the passing game now that Welker is back, which is gonna stress the Cards secondary. I dont have any faith in Stanton to move the ball successfully, as they have averaged 22 ppg, but even thats misleading....Az doesnt have any real deep threats and Ellington is a middle of the pack rb in this league....

Looking at a 31-17 broncos win....but Ive been wrong before

 


You mentioned not having any faith in Stanton moving the ball but you've given the Cardinals 17 points. I think giving the Cards anywhere from 17-21 points is enough for the cover so it appears the difference in the way you and I see this game isn't so much Stanton as it is Manning vs Cardinals defense. It's evident that this game will allow us to gauge where Arizona stands in relation to the other top tier teams in the league. Good luck buddy.
 
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Posted: #140
I just looked at the Broncos total. Holy shitt, that's a lot of points. I think under 49 is a solid play.
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by alexthegreat08:

I look forward to breaking down the Niners game. I'll create a little dialogue on Wednesday,  thanks for the post and good luck this week.

Always love reading your picks and thoughts AMD. Would like to know your thoughts on the KC/SF game. Keep up the good work!!

Cheers!

I love the 49ers spread offense against a very poor Chiefs rushing defense. The Chiefs looked good against the Patriots offense because New England couldn't get their rushing attack on track but San Francisco 's zone read spread offense is a whole different animal. The Chiefs are giving up an average of 7 yds per rush this season (301yds, 43 rushes) when teams have gotten the Chiefs out of their base defense. The Chiefs are also one of the worst in the league in giving up yds on first down which will be completely relevant in this matchup since the Niners are one of the most efficient teams converting first downs of less than 5 yds on 2nd and 3rd down. SF has so many weapons on offense and I think we finally see an offensive explosion from the Niners running game this week. The 49ers also rank 8th in the league in red zone offense against one of the worst red zone defenses. Kaepernick will be able to run or throw against a soft nickel. The strength of the Chiefs defense is their outside pressure from Hali and Houston but that  be offset by Kaepernicks mobility and spread scheme. I'll give my opinion on the 49ers defensive matchup against the Chiefs offense in a bit.
 
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Posted: #142
 
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Posted: #143
Stay hot Amd, thanks for your time and efforts...NE & NO
Everyday above ground is a good day - 83 @Damon102covers
 
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Posted: #144
any more thoughts? leans?  You were going to discuss Atlanta....
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


I love the 49ers spread offense against a very poor Chiefs rushing defense. The Chiefs looked good against the Patriots offense because New England couldn't get their rushing attack on track but San Francisco 's zone read spread offense is a whole different animal. The Chiefs are giving up an average of 7 yds per rush this season (301yds, 43 rushes) when teams have gotten the Chiefs out of their base defense. The Chiefs are also one of the worst in the league in giving up yds on first down which will be completely relevant in this matchup since the Niners are one of the most efficient teams converting first downs of less than 5 yds on 2nd and 3rd down. SF has so many weapons on offense and I think we finally see an offensive explosion from the Niners running game this week. The 49ers also rank 8th in the league in red zone offense against one of the worst red zone defenses. Kaepernick will be able to run or throw against a soft nickel. The strength of the Chiefs defense is their outside pressure from Hali and Houston but that  be offset by Kaepernicks mobility and spread scheme. I'll give my opinion on the 49ers defensive matchup against the Chiefs offense in a bit.

HELLL YES BROTHER.  
 
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Posted: #146
I also think this is as big a game for Kap as Smith. Chiefs backers are focusing on the Smith revenge angle but Kap will want to prove to everyone (including all those doubters) that he is the better QB. I have to admit that I started out as a Kap backer (and still believe he gives you a better chance against elite defenses) but like Smith more. Betting this game is hard for me, as I want Smith to do well but I'm on the Niners as well.
 
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Posted: #147
GL   
 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Ytd  27-12      +84.6




San Francisco -6  -115    6.9/6

New England +1   4.4/4

Buffalo +7 -105   4.2/4

New Orleans -10   4.4/4

Dallas -6 -115    4.6/4

Green Bay -9    4.4/4



 
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Posted: #149
 
                                           //////. AMD \\\\\\

This has been the most informative post that I have read. My hats off to you AMD and the others who have responded. Keep the coals hot Bro.... 
 
 
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Some of my favorite plays, mostly based off of numberFire metrics:

Chargers/Jets: Over 44
Pats/Bengals: Under 46
Colts: -3
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