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Back from Mexico....back to the grind. Outside of that one BRUTAL 0-5 day in college a couple weeks ago, been on a nice steady run to start the football season. Hoping to keep it going and hopefully grab that 4-0 or 5-0 Sunday sweep in the near future to really boost the bankroll.
San Diego was a killer last night though. Wiped out a clean sweep weekend with my bets(I think I went 3-0 on Sunday and hit my only college play Saturday). My Pickem pool I was 11-2 and it happened that one other guy had 10 wins and had Pitt. Came to tiebreaker and I had 38, he had 41, and I lost the pool. Then in the Covers NFL pool I needed SD to win to crack the top 10(which I THINK is a prize), but that last second TD wiped me out for the hat trick of death to cap off the week. Can't complain too much. Grinding things out slow and steady and every week closer to my goal for the season.
Ok for week 6, I'm definitely gonna make a play on the Saints. My book had it at +4, and then it was off the board for a few hours before popping back up at +3. I'm guessing Julio Jones possibly not playing was the reason for the change.
Every season I have an angle I like to use starting week 6 and using for the next few weeks. Usually weeks 6-9 or so. This early in the season TURNOVERS really have an impact on some of the teams who are 5-0 or 4-1 and the teams who are 0-5 or 1-4. Over the course of a long season, things tend to even out, but for this part of the season, I like to make a note of the top 5 teams and bottom 5 teams with giveaways/takeaways. If one of the top teams happen to be playing the bottom 5, I tend to see value in those games as this early in the season, the teams who are giving away games with turnovers aren't as bad as they are perceived and vice versa. Usually good for a lot more competitive game than expected and it's an angle that has cashed for me at a good clip over the years.
If you look, the top teams in take/giveaways are:
- Carolina +8
- Denver +6
- Arizona +6
- Jets +6
- GB +5
- Atlanta +5
It just so happens that those teams are 5-0, 5-0, 4-1, 3-1, and 5-0 respectively.
Now the bottom teams in give/takeaways:
- Houston -8
- Indy -7
- Detroit -6
- NO -5
- Dallas -5
These teams happen to be 1-4, 2-3, 0-5, 1-4, and 2-3 respectively.
Now the only matchup with a top/bottom team in turnovers is Atlanta -3 on the road versus New Orleans so I'm gonna take a shot. I'm thinking that line will float up a bit by game time, especially if and when Julio announces he will be playing. +4.5 is the number I would like, but I'll take +3 if it's the best I wind up getting.
Also looking at:
- Cleveland plus the points(again would like to get +4.5 to be on the right side of 4).
- Detroit -3(hopefully lower).
- Seattle -6.5.
GL to all and I'll be back as the week progresses.
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