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WEEK 7 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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COPY & PASTE THE LINK BELOW:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit





 
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Quantitative Power Rankings:

#01 San Francisco 49ers
#02 Chicago Bears
#03 Green Bay Packers
#04 New York Giants
#05 Seattle Seahawks
#06 Denver Broncos
#07 New England Patriots
#08 St. Louis Rams
#09 Baltimore Ravens
#10 Washington Redskins
#11 Houston Texans
#12 Dallas Cowboys
#13 Atlanta Falcons
#14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#15 Miami Dolphins
#16 Minnesota Vikings
#17 Arizona Cardinals
#18 Detroit Lions
#19 Carolina Panthers
#20 Philadelphia Eagles
#21 New York Jets
#22 Cincinnati Bengals
#23 San Diego Chargers
#24 Pittsburgh Steelers
#25 Cleveland Browns
#26 Oakland Raiders
#27 New Orleans Saints
#28 Tennessee Titans
#29 Buffalo Bills
#30 Indianapolis Colts
#31 Jacksonville Jaguars
#32 Kansas City Chiefs

 
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Thank you for sharing your research every week
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #4
What's surprising is Houston rank below Redskins. And Falcon is ranked 13... what's the weighted factor that contributed to power ranking? Are all the variable weight equally?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BigLick08:

What's surprising is Houston rank below Redskins. And Falcon is ranked 13... what's the weighted factor that contributed to power ranking? Are all the variable weight equally?

It's a cumulative ranking derived from my RPI that weighs the score the most and is supplemented by offensive and defensive rankings in passing and rushing efficiency as well as overall efficiency.
 
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I'm gonna make money with these this week.. watch 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I'm gonna make money with these this week.. watch 
thanks silly 
 
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The Texans big drop is due to their performance on Monday night.  Also, they've played the 27th easiest schedule in the NFL.  Sure they're 4-1, but Green Bay exploited their holes and they've settled back a bit.
 
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you're the man, dude
 
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As always, thanks for posting.  I guess for the one game posted thus far, the lean would be San Fran and the under.  Of course, I would never play a favorite and under, but both match-up with what I expected to see.  Personally, I see San Fran winning by double digits.  Maybe 21-10.
 
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si1ly you help alot of us out with your hard work. much appreciated

 
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Posted: #12
From the eyeball test and your rankings the spreads look pretty sharp, my best guess would be that the Dallas line might see the most movement. What about you?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Numero_Uno:

As always, thanks for posting.  I guess for the one game posted thus far, the lean would be San Fran and the under.  Of course, I would never play a favorite and under, but both match-up with what I expected to see.  Personally, I see San Fran winning by double digits.  Maybe 21-10.

The standard score prediction model has the most likely NFL score for this game at 17-10.  Even though I like San Fran on the side, I think the under is the best bet.  Two below average offenses against the two best defenses in the NFL.  Turnovers and special teams touchdowns are the only threat of an under.. but even accounting for one and the most likely NFL score becomes 20-13.  I don't see many ways for these teams to break 40, especially on a short week.
 
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im guessing you'll be on the niners?
 
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wow. line is down to 37.5 already
 
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Rest of the breakdown sheets are posted.  At first glance I like:

TB ML
SEA@SF Under
TEN@BUF Over
CIN +1.5
PIT@CIN Over
CLE +3
STL +5
ARI +6
CHI -5.5
 
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Locked in:

TNF - Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Under 38.5 (-120)





 
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A bit early...but top survivor options again would be tremendously appreciated. Thanks si1ly. BOL this weekend. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ReadBtWtheLines:

A bit early...but top survivor options again would be tremendously appreciated. Thanks si1ly. BOL this weekend. 

Chicago was projected to win by 14 points in two of my models.  Sucks waiting till Monday night, but they have the most lopsided advantage on paper.

Also the Patriots should handle the Jets with ease.  They have a true 10 point advantage on Sunday.

Minnesota is way overvalued.  Don't even think about it.

Houston turned up as 4 point favorites before accounting for injuries.  I bumped the spread 3 points but who knows how much of an affect it will have.  Could be more, could be less - sometimes teams respond really well the first week after losing a leader.

The Giants really jumped in my power rankings after their performance in San Francisco, but their defense is still a question mark.  They seem to play to their level of competition.  Also traveling back and forth from the west coast will be difficult.  The touchdown spread looks reasonable on paper, but Washington is a formidable opponent and it might be a bad spot for the New York.

San Francisco is an option, but if the game is as low scoring as my models project, I think it's better to stay away.  One special teams or defensive touchdown could determine the outcome.

The rest of the games are tough to call and probably should stay off any survivor pool list.  Let me know what you think about the above games.




 
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Posted: #20

Thks.....

 
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I really am glad to see your model has TB as a favorite.  I really liked TB as well.  I just can't figure out how the worst defensive team in football could be favored on the road.  Drew Brees is getting way too much credit on this one.
 
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bungals +1.5 looks a great bet doesnt it?

under in the 9ers game seems like a public play
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Numero_Uno:

I really am glad to see your model has TB as a favorite.  I really liked TB as well.  I just can't figure out how the worst defensive team in football could be favored on the road.  Drew Brees is getting way too much credit on this one.

Yatzee!
 
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Here's one type of calculation you can perform using the sheets to predict the score.  Let's look at the Seattle at San Francisco game as an example.

Start with RPI Score offense:  Seattle's offense scores -3.1 points less than their opponents allow on average.  San Francisco's defense allows 15.7 points per game.  Therefore Seattle's offense is projected to score 12.6 points.

Start with RPI Score offense:  San Francisco's offense scores +1.4 points more than their opponents allow on average.  Seattle's defense allows 15.5 points per game.  Therefore San Francisco's offense is projected to score 16.9 points.

Start with RPI Score defense:  San Francisco's defense allows -9.3 points less than their opponents average.  Seattle's offense scores 18.3 points per game.  Therefore Seattle's offense will score 9.0 points.

Start with RPI Score defense:  Seattle's defense allows -6.3 points less than their opponents average.  San Francisco's offense scores 25.3 points per game.  Therefore San Francisco's offense will score 19 points.

SEA = (12.6 + 9.0) / 2 = 21.6 / 2 = 10.8

SF = (19 +16.9) / 2 = 35.9 / 2 = 18.0

Round to the nearest football score and you get something like 17-10 San Francisco.  You can do this calculation for every game to get one perspective on a final score prediction for the game.

 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Rest of the breakdown sheets are posted.  At first glance I like:

TB ML
CHI -5.5
 

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