MTB you picked out two of my strongest leans. Considering locking in the Bears early at -5.5 as I see this line moving into 6 territory. I'm hoping to get Tampa Bay +3.5 and ML. Right now I'm being offered +3 (+100) and it may not get better than this. Will this game see some reverse line movement off the key number? I see it already has at some of the sharper books. I think Tampa Bay will be a strong buy this week for the sharps - perhaps the most invested in sharp play on the board.
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MTB you picked out two of my strongest leans. Considering locking in the Bears early at -5.5 as I see this line moving into 6 territory. I'm hoping to get Tampa Bay +3.5 and ML. Right now I'm being offered +3 (+100) and it may not get better than this. Will this game see some reverse line movement off the key number? I see it already has at some of the sharper books. I think Tampa Bay will be a strong buy this week for the sharps - perhaps the most invested in sharp play on the board.
well vilma may be coming back for the saints... defensive captain should give an emotional boost!
also, for ari..skelton looked terrible against the bills; I like the under in this game ALOT but the 40pts has me thrown off especially you having it as 33 (also u wrote Washington for the title of the .pdf)
What do u think about the under?
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well vilma may be coming back for the saints... defensive captain should give an emotional boost!
also, for ari..skelton looked terrible against the bills; I like the under in this game ALOT but the 40pts has me thrown off especially you having it as 33 (also u wrote Washington for the title of the .pdf)
MTB you picked out two of my strongest leans. Considering locking in the Bears early at -5.5 as I see this line moving into 6 territory. I'm hoping to get Tampa Bay +3.5 and ML. Right now I'm being offered +3 (+100) and it may not get better than this. Will this game see some reverse line movement off the key number? I see it already has at some of the sharper books. I think Tampa Bay will be a strong buy this week for the sharps - perhaps the most invested in sharp play on the board.
That is an amazing line you have there. What does your local charge to buy up to 3.5? Best I see is +3 -120 but I'm going to wait as it should get better throughout the week.
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
MTB you picked out two of my strongest leans. Considering locking in the Bears early at -5.5 as I see this line moving into 6 territory. I'm hoping to get Tampa Bay +3.5 and ML. Right now I'm being offered +3 (+100) and it may not get better than this. Will this game see some reverse line movement off the key number? I see it already has at some of the sharper books. I think Tampa Bay will be a strong buy this week for the sharps - perhaps the most invested in sharp play on the board.
That is an amazing line you have there. What does your local charge to buy up to 3.5? Best I see is +3 -120 but I'm going to wait as it should get better throughout the week.
well vilma may be coming back for the saints... defensive captain should give an emotional boost!
also, for ari..skelton looked terrible against the bills; I like the under in this game ALOT but the 40pts has me thrown off especially you having it as 33 (also u wrote Washington for the title of the .pdf)
What do u think about the under?
The under in the Minnesota game is very straightforward.
Both offenses rank in the bottom 25% of the NFL.
Both defenses rank in the top 25% of the NFL:
Inefficient offenses against good defenses = under. (Check the INT/FUM/SACK rates to make sure defensive plays don't lead to quick points by way of short fields or returned touchdowns.) In this case, I'd say these teams are about average in these departments so there's nothing more to worry about than in any other NFL game. The risk is probably worth the reward. Under is the right play.
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Quote Originally Posted by Unplug:
well vilma may be coming back for the saints... defensive captain should give an emotional boost!
also, for ari..skelton looked terrible against the bills; I like the under in this game ALOT but the 40pts has me thrown off especially you having it as 33 (also u wrote Washington for the title of the .pdf)
What do u think about the under?
The under in the Minnesota game is very straightforward.
Both offenses rank in the bottom 25% of the NFL.
Both defenses rank in the top 25% of the NFL:
Inefficient offenses against good defenses = under. (Check the INT/FUM/SACK rates to make sure defensive plays don't lead to quick points by way of short fields or returned touchdowns.) In this case, I'd say these teams are about average in these departments so there's nothing more to worry about than in any other NFL game. The risk is probably worth the reward. Under is the right play.
That is an amazing line you have there. What does your local charge to buy up to 3.5? Best I see is +3 -120 but I'm going to wait as it should get better throughout the week.
Standard 20 cents. I'm considering staying at +3 (+100) to save juice though as I don't foresee the spread being much of a factor.
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
That is an amazing line you have there. What does your local charge to buy up to 3.5? Best I see is +3 -120 but I'm going to wait as it should get better throughout the week.
Standard 20 cents. I'm considering staying at +3 (+100) to save juice though as I don't foresee the spread being much of a factor.
Si1ly any opinions on that Carolina/Dallas game, Dallas did everything in their power to lose that game vs Baltimore and with the Giants coming up next week is this a must win for them or is the other outcome likely, They have a stinker here and then completely refocus for next weeks game and win a statement game against the Giants to kick start their season??
Which brings me to my next question, With the Giants coming off a huge statement win and with the line being at -6 for the game vs the Redskins, Which will be teased down to -1 by virtually every square around town, Is there a possibility the Redskins win straight up vs the Giants??
Thanks
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Si1ly any opinions on that Carolina/Dallas game, Dallas did everything in their power to lose that game vs Baltimore and with the Giants coming up next week is this a must win for them or is the other outcome likely, They have a stinker here and then completely refocus for next weeks game and win a statement game against the Giants to kick start their season??
Which brings me to my next question, With the Giants coming off a huge statement win and with the line being at -6 for the game vs the Redskins, Which will be teased down to -1 by virtually every square around town, Is there a possibility the Redskins win straight up vs the Giants??
Do you see the o/u in TNF moving back to 38 (possibly 38.5) by gametime??? I have 37.5 -110 now...
GL w/ your play
Unlikely.. but you never know. I think the early steam on this line was sharp money and now we'll just waiver back and forth between 37.5 and 38 with different juice. You could play the game and wait for a better line as you have 36 hours until kickoff. I would play 37.5 at (EV) just as fast as I would play 38.5 (-120)
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Quote Originally Posted by doliver517:
Do you see the o/u in TNF moving back to 38 (possibly 38.5) by gametime??? I have 37.5 -110 now...
GL w/ your play
Unlikely.. but you never know. I think the early steam on this line was sharp money and now we'll just waiver back and forth between 37.5 and 38 with different juice. You could play the game and wait for a better line as you have 36 hours until kickoff. I would play 37.5 at (EV) just as fast as I would play 38.5 (-120)
Arizona lost QB Kevin Kolb and John Skelton is starting. Does that change your mind about Arizona or is it still a good play at +6?
My model has the game at Minny -1. Is Skelton 5 points worse than Kolb? Probably not. Arizona's offense wasn't winning them games anyways. That said, Arizona is not one of my stronger leans. Minnesota plays great ball at home. But I don't think they should be laying 6 points there yet. Under looks like the better bet in this game.
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Quote Originally Posted by saikit:
Arizona lost QB Kevin Kolb and John Skelton is starting. Does that change your mind about Arizona or is it still a good play at +6?
My model has the game at Minny -1. Is Skelton 5 points worse than Kolb? Probably not. Arizona's offense wasn't winning them games anyways. That said, Arizona is not one of my stronger leans. Minnesota plays great ball at home. But I don't think they should be laying 6 points there yet. Under looks like the better bet in this game.
im guessing you dont buy into things like the 9ers under seems easy/public play?
I do prefer to be on the 'sharp' side of things more often than not. And when you're a value investor like myself, typically that's what happens. I tend to capitalize the most on lines where public perception has inflated the spread on one team or another. But ultimately I bet according to the numbers. This total is one of the lowest of the season for a reason. Seattle and San Francisco are two of the best defenses in the league and neither team is an offensive powerhouse. What's even better about the under is the play-calling tendencies for both coaches who call the #1 and #4 most run-intensive offenses in the NFL. It's a short week and a match-up between the two best teams in the division. It will be a war in the trenches. No reason to over-think it because it's a 'public' play. I only care whether it's the 'right' play, and my numbers are telling me it is - no question.
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Quote Originally Posted by chivashoolio:
im guessing you dont buy into things like the 9ers under seems easy/public play?
I do prefer to be on the 'sharp' side of things more often than not. And when you're a value investor like myself, typically that's what happens. I tend to capitalize the most on lines where public perception has inflated the spread on one team or another. But ultimately I bet according to the numbers. This total is one of the lowest of the season for a reason. Seattle and San Francisco are two of the best defenses in the league and neither team is an offensive powerhouse. What's even better about the under is the play-calling tendencies for both coaches who call the #1 and #4 most run-intensive offenses in the NFL. It's a short week and a match-up between the two best teams in the division. It will be a war in the trenches. No reason to over-think it because it's a 'public' play. I only care whether it's the 'right' play, and my numbers are telling me it is - no question.
Si1ly any opinions on that Carolina/Dallas game, Dallas did everything in their power to lose that game vs Baltimore and with the Giants coming up next week is this a must win for them or is the other outcome likely, They have a stinker here and then completely refocus for next weeks game and win a statement game against the Giants to kick start their season??
Which brings me to my next question, With the Giants coming off a huge statement win and with the line being at -6 for the game vs the Redskins, Which will be teased down to -1 by virtually every square around town, Is there a possibility the Redskins win straight up vs the Giants??
Thanks
Dallas and Carolina are both funny teams.. I have a really hard time reading what kind of effort they're going to put out week to week. There's some line value on Carolina (I think fair value has them slightly favored). But I'm a bit hazy on the intangible variables in this game so I'm probably not the best guy to give advice on it. I can tell you right now that there's a very very slim chance that I wager on this game (if I did, it would be on Carolina).
The line looks very accurate on paper.. but the Giants defense hasn't impressed me yet. They looked great against San Fran, but I want to see more consistent effort before I believe. They're in a very tough scheduling spot going from east coast to west coast back to east coast. After a hard fought win last week it's reasonable to expect a little let down. Ultimately I find it hard to find value on either side. The Skins are probably the sharp play in this contest, but I don't know if they actually have enough line value to justify a play otherwise.
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Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:
Si1ly any opinions on that Carolina/Dallas game, Dallas did everything in their power to lose that game vs Baltimore and with the Giants coming up next week is this a must win for them or is the other outcome likely, They have a stinker here and then completely refocus for next weeks game and win a statement game against the Giants to kick start their season??
Which brings me to my next question, With the Giants coming off a huge statement win and with the line being at -6 for the game vs the Redskins, Which will be teased down to -1 by virtually every square around town, Is there a possibility the Redskins win straight up vs the Giants??
Thanks
Dallas and Carolina are both funny teams.. I have a really hard time reading what kind of effort they're going to put out week to week. There's some line value on Carolina (I think fair value has them slightly favored). But I'm a bit hazy on the intangible variables in this game so I'm probably not the best guy to give advice on it. I can tell you right now that there's a very very slim chance that I wager on this game (if I did, it would be on Carolina).
The line looks very accurate on paper.. but the Giants defense hasn't impressed me yet. They looked great against San Fran, but I want to see more consistent effort before I believe. They're in a very tough scheduling spot going from east coast to west coast back to east coast. After a hard fought win last week it's reasonable to expect a little let down. Ultimately I find it hard to find value on either side. The Skins are probably the sharp play in this contest, but I don't know if they actually have enough line value to justify a play otherwise.
I see this line sliding to 6 and staying put so I'm locking the Bears in at 5.5 this morning before it moves at my shop. They have the most lopsided advantage on paper this week.
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I see this line sliding to 6 and staying put so I'm locking the Bears in at 5.5 this morning before it moves at my shop. They have the most lopsided advantage on paper this week.
I feel Chicago can win. I certainly give them the edge in the game
because of their D/ST and the home field advantage. However, as pedestrian as
Detroit has looked thus far I give them the offensive advantage. I like what they
did in Philly, they showed so fourth quarter resiliency that my come into play
again in Chicago. Not sure about the spot, could be flat with the Chi-town
coming off of the bye; this is simply not a game I will be wagering on. I like
the points and can see a 3pt game either way.
Can’t really disagree with the Pats but I just have another one of
those really sick feelings. I think 10+ is too many points. The Jets have
looked good against a couple bad teams; but despite their injuries they appear
to be heading in the right direction. No question this will be a statement game
for both teams. The Pats have some major weaknesses IMO; however, I’m not sure
the Jets can exploit them. I expect NE to win, but just another game I think I
want to avoid as it will no doubt be a popular choice. Truth be told, won’t
call the outright upset but I would not be shocked to see the Jets make this a
game.
You hit the nail right on the head with Houston. I see them
winning but no real lean. Don’t think it’s worth a wager or a survivor pick at
this point.
Again – bang on with the Giants. “They seem to play to their level of competition”. This statement
could not be more accurate. There are notorious for this and probably more than
any other team in the league. Staying very far away from this game.
Believe
it or not I am leaning to San Fran as my top survivor option for this week. I
know it’s a short week; but let’s be honest; the spot could not be any more
enticing. Seattle coming off a huge home win over the Pats and the Niners
losing sluggishly to the Giants. Harbargh will have these boys amped. We are
all well aware of Seattle’s long streak on jackal and Hyde appearance – home and
away. I will back them against any team in the league when dogged at home. On
the road, I want no part of’m. Seattle may not score an offensive touchdown in
this game. Love your under pick and I have SanFran +5 and under 49.5 to close
out the back end of a 4 team 12pt teaser (connected from Monday night).
I’m
not sure if I’ve mentioned it before but you are a true asset to the forum and
I sincerely appreciate your time and efforts. The two heads are better than one
theory is a great one when handicapping and with combined efforts from yourself
and a few others they is certainly so profits to be made. Thanks again. I will
chime in with any further thoughts as they arise. Cheers.
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Appreciate the reply my friend.
I feel Chicago can win. I certainly give them the edge in the game
because of their D/ST and the home field advantage. However, as pedestrian as
Detroit has looked thus far I give them the offensive advantage. I like what they
did in Philly, they showed so fourth quarter resiliency that my come into play
again in Chicago. Not sure about the spot, could be flat with the Chi-town
coming off of the bye; this is simply not a game I will be wagering on. I like
the points and can see a 3pt game either way.
Can’t really disagree with the Pats but I just have another one of
those really sick feelings. I think 10+ is too many points. The Jets have
looked good against a couple bad teams; but despite their injuries they appear
to be heading in the right direction. No question this will be a statement game
for both teams. The Pats have some major weaknesses IMO; however, I’m not sure
the Jets can exploit them. I expect NE to win, but just another game I think I
want to avoid as it will no doubt be a popular choice. Truth be told, won’t
call the outright upset but I would not be shocked to see the Jets make this a
game.
You hit the nail right on the head with Houston. I see them
winning but no real lean. Don’t think it’s worth a wager or a survivor pick at
this point.
Again – bang on with the Giants. “They seem to play to their level of competition”. This statement
could not be more accurate. There are notorious for this and probably more than
any other team in the league. Staying very far away from this game.
Believe
it or not I am leaning to San Fran as my top survivor option for this week. I
know it’s a short week; but let’s be honest; the spot could not be any more
enticing. Seattle coming off a huge home win over the Pats and the Niners
losing sluggishly to the Giants. Harbargh will have these boys amped. We are
all well aware of Seattle’s long streak on jackal and Hyde appearance – home and
away. I will back them against any team in the league when dogged at home. On
the road, I want no part of’m. Seattle may not score an offensive touchdown in
this game. Love your under pick and I have SanFran +5 and under 49.5 to close
out the back end of a 4 team 12pt teaser (connected from Monday night).
I’m
not sure if I’ve mentioned it before but you are a true asset to the forum and
I sincerely appreciate your time and efforts. The two heads are better than one
theory is a great one when handicapping and with combined efforts from yourself
and a few others they is certainly so profits to be made. Thanks again. I will
chime in with any further thoughts as they arise. Cheers.
I know what you mean about sick feeling with the Jets/Patriots game. Remember the playoff game a few years back where New England was something like 10 point favorites at home and they lost straight up? I was at that game.
Great read by the way.. I think San Fran is as good a choice as any for survivor. Rookie QB's on the road against an elite defense and elite coach do not have a high success rate. Could be as simple as that. San Francisco 20 - Seattle 13.
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I know what you mean about sick feeling with the Jets/Patriots game. Remember the playoff game a few years back where New England was something like 10 point favorites at home and they lost straight up? I was at that game.
Great read by the way.. I think San Fran is as good a choice as any for survivor. Rookie QB's on the road against an elite defense and elite coach do not have a high success rate. Could be as simple as that. San Francisco 20 - Seattle 13.
I know what you mean about sick feeling with the Jets/Patriots game. Remember the playoff game a few years back where New England was something like 10 point favorites at home and they lost straight up? I was at that game.
Great read by the way.. I think San Fran is as good a choice as any for survivor. Rookie QB's on the road against an elite defense and elite coach do not have a high success rate. Could be as simple as that. San Francisco 20 - Seattle 13.
My thoughts exactly. ^^^ What a game to be at..lol. I will be routing for the bears on MNF.
Leaning both Buffalo and Oakland as well. Just hate backing such sketchy teams, small if anything. But they have to win some time; like the spots, buffalo may have turned the corner - then again, maybe not...lol. They do play better at home and they owe Tenny a little revenge from last year if I'm not mistaken. Oakland played pretty good in Atlanta and if classic Palmer didn't throw that pick..who knows. Glad he did though, had ATL in both my survivors last week. :) While many might expect a deflated effort after playing their hearts out, I think Oakland has should some positive signs of life. Personally I dislike everything about this team; but again, they have to win sometime and I think the Jags might be the right opponent. Cheers.
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
I know what you mean about sick feeling with the Jets/Patriots game. Remember the playoff game a few years back where New England was something like 10 point favorites at home and they lost straight up? I was at that game.
Great read by the way.. I think San Fran is as good a choice as any for survivor. Rookie QB's on the road against an elite defense and elite coach do not have a high success rate. Could be as simple as that. San Francisco 20 - Seattle 13.
My thoughts exactly. ^^^ What a game to be at..lol. I will be routing for the bears on MNF.
Leaning both Buffalo and Oakland as well. Just hate backing such sketchy teams, small if anything. But they have to win some time; like the spots, buffalo may have turned the corner - then again, maybe not...lol. They do play better at home and they owe Tenny a little revenge from last year if I'm not mistaken. Oakland played pretty good in Atlanta and if classic Palmer didn't throw that pick..who knows. Glad he did though, had ATL in both my survivors last week. :) While many might expect a deflated effort after playing their hearts out, I think Oakland has should some positive signs of life. Personally I dislike everything about this team; but again, they have to win sometime and I think the Jags might be the right opponent. Cheers.
Side bar while we got ya....Apologies for threading/posting in the wrong forum..but you got any bases today?? I'm liking Det and Stl & the Over. Gimme a reason to hit'm! Lol..thanks brother.
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Side bar while we got ya....Apologies for threading/posting in the wrong forum..but you got any bases today?? I'm liking Det and Stl & the Over. Gimme a reason to hit'm! Lol..thanks brother.
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