Every game Against the Spread:
Kansas City +7.5 v. New England.
Andy Reid off the longest bye week of all, given more than a TD? It's not as though the Patriots have zero weaknesses, and this game is not likely to be a bloodbath.
Vegas knows that it will be amateur hour on the first play of the year, so why not make the Pats 7.5 point favorites so they are assured KC will cover?
Reid eats clock, that's why he is so fat. He knows one way in which they can win this game is by grinding the Patriots down with flat passes and gut punches.
I have no illusions, this is no sure thing, but 7.5 is a lot on Opening Night.
Sunday
Bills -6.5= NO VALUE.
Despite popular belief, no one yet knows who the Jets are, and no one knows who the Bills are. Richie Incognito is a regression candidate, LeSean McCoy is now 28 and has carried a large load. They have no number 2 receiver.
The good thing the Bills have going into the season is a coach who will implement a 4-3, which the Bills have better personnel for. Things they have working against them: TraDavious White is not even close to NFL ready. I liken him to fellow LSU alum Jalen Collins.
This will hurt them, because they lost Stephon Gilmore. Darby is still very good, but the Secondary behind him is really thin, especially considering that TraDavious White has trouble, especially in the run game keeping lane integrity, but also in the Pass game he doesn't have great instincts, which leads to him ceding too much space, and this is in College, now he's expected to be an NFL starter.
There is no value here because the Jets have no skill players behind Eric Decker, Quincy Enunwa and Matt Forte.
This is a battle between two incredibly flawed teams, and the spread doesn't reach 7. Pass.
Atlanta -6.5 @ Chicago, no value
We simply don't know who Atlanta is this year. I would gladly take Atlanta here if there were a gun to my head, but you are going to be banking on a big unknown: the entire Offensive scheme.
Atlanta had so many "quick hit" concepts, pass-run reads, end arounds, PA misdirection screens...
instead, you will be getting a Steve Sarkesian Offense, and no one will truly know what you are getting.
Chicago won't be terrible this year, their Defense has a very good Defensive line, and the deepest LBing corps in the NFC. They have a solid backend and will greatly benefit from uber-talented underperformer Kyle Fuller being in a contract year.
Also, the Bears biggest problem is the age or injury history of their best players. This is week one, they will be as competitive as they will be all year long.
That Offensive Line is actually very good, the RB corps is deep, they have a receiving threat TE in Miller, and if Kevin White can make a dent this year, the Bears will go at least 8-8.
Not to mention, teams that lose the Super Bowl often struggle the next year.
. I think it's akin to coming in second in a large Marathon. The next year you train with a sense of accomplishment, but without the motivation of "repeating". Now the next year, when you hit a bit of adversity, it's as though you have all of the expectations without any of the victory. It's demoralizing, and can lead one to hang their heads.
Jacksonville +4.5
Jacksonville has a dominant Defense. Period. Get used to it.
Now they have Leonard Fournette. If you have ever watched him play, you know that the Jags are for real. Period.
There is no way that the Jaguars don't go at least 8-8 this year, and when they are going to be most effective is against teams that have a similar set-up.
The Texans are not going to be able to produce a ton of Offense this year, and when they play teams that have a dominant Defense, I bet the Texans will struggle mightily.
Bortles is obviously the biggest concern, but given 4.5 points I have to believe that the Jaguars' other pieces will step up.
That's it for now, more later.