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Posted: Jun. 15, 2017 - 11:15 PM ET #26

One team has a non existent O Line, a QB who is jittery, and no WRs.

The other team has Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson in a grudge match, two first rounders on the O Line, and a young Defense that just added the best Defensive player in the draft.

The New Orleans Saints are for real this year. The Minnesota Vikings are certainly not.

It's not that the Vikings don't have strengths, their Defense is run by a genius and is incredibly talented....

the problem is that their Offense can't put up more than 24 points, and that will be a big problem against the Saints in Week 1.

The Saints are going to take many by surprise with how good they are. And it's not going to be because their Offense is much better than last year (although I do believe that will be the case), I believe it will be because of three key players who are in place who weren't, for one reason or another, last year.

The picks on Defense the Saints have had that I gave high grades to coming out of College: Kikaha, Stephone Anthony, Sheldon Rankins. That is just in the front Seven.

Delvin Breaux is only one year away from one of the best possible years a cover DB could have, and now we add Marshon Lattimore? Lattimore is literally can't miss. He plays the run as well as he plays the pass, and has a sixth sense that can't be taught.

Their Safeties are a deep group that can stop the run and the pass.

Bottom line, the tipping point on Defense will come from the Pass Rush getting more sustained pressure and the LBing corps finally stepping up and covering backs and TEs in a way they simply couldn't last year.

Stephone Anthony has the talent to team with Kikaha, a more cerebral LB in a way he might not have been able to with Craig Robertson or Dannell Ellerbe.

The things we saw from Clemson with Anthony were largely missing at the NFL level, but reports from OTAs are that Anthony has turned the corner and made great strides in his understanding of the game. Anthony has always had the talent, we have always known that.

If Anthony has grasped his leverages and situational technique, it could be an exciting tandem for the Saints. In all actuality, LBer is their position with the highest potential but their lowest performers.

I will certainly be watching this position group in Preseason, but have already planned on taking the Saints on MNF +3.5

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One team has a non existent O Line, a QB who is jittery, and no WRs.

The other team has Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson in a grudge match, two first rounders on the O Line, and a young Defense that just added the best Defensive player in the draft.

The New Orleans Saints are for real this year. The Minnesota Vikings are certainly not.

It's not that the Vikings don't have strengths, their Defense is run by a genius and is incredibly talented....

the problem is that their Offense can't put up more than 24 points, and that will be a big problem against the Saints in Week 1.

The Saints are going to take many by surprise with how good they are. And it's not going to be because their Offense is much better than last year (although I do believe that will be the case), I believe it will be because of three key players who are in place who weren't, for one reason or another, last year.

The picks on Defense the Saints have had that I gave high grades to coming out of College: Kikaha, Stephone Anthony, Sheldon Rankins. That is just in the front Seven.

Delvin Breaux is only one year away from one of the best possible years a cover DB could have, and now we add Marshon Lattimore? Lattimore is literally can't miss. He plays the run as well as he plays the pass, and has a sixth sense that can't be taught.

Their Safeties are a deep group that can stop the run and the pass.

Bottom line, the tipping point on Defense will come from the Pass Rush getting more sustained pressure and the LBing corps finally stepping up and covering backs and TEs in a way they simply couldn't last year.

Stephone Anthony has the talent to team with Kikaha, a more cerebral LB in a way he might not have been able to with Craig Robertson or Dannell Ellerbe.

The things we saw from Clemson with Anthony were largely missing at the NFL level, but reports from OTAs are that Anthony has turned the corner and made great strides in his understanding of the game. Anthony has always had the talent, we have always known that.

If Anthony has grasped his leverages and situational technique, it could be an exciting tandem for the Saints. In all actuality, LBer is their position with the highest potential but their lowest performers.

I will certainly be watching this position group in Preseason, but have already planned on taking the Saints on MNF +3.5

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Posted: Jun. 17, 2017 - 12:50 PM ET #27

When you are picking sides, sometimes there comes a time when every piece of information you find tells you that the spread is accurate. There is also times when you finally check the Total and realize this is the game that will be worth a huge investment.

The Cowboys and the Giants will come down to the wire. There is very little value unless the spread gets to 7. The one thing I am confident in is that this game is not going to be high scoring.

The Giants did not fix their O Line. Pugh and Richburg vs an entire Defense is the name of the Giants' game. Fluker is below average and has been for years. Flowers is an absolute trainwreck. At RT you're either relying on Hart or Newhouse, and either way, you are screwed.

The Cowboys Defensively lose Morris Claiborne, a very underrated part of their hot start last year, as well as Brandon Carr, a player who while not impressive played very well last year.

However, they gain Taco Charlton, a guy whose tape I love coming out of Michigan. They already had a solid D Line last year, featuring breakout performances from David "rip stop signs out of the ground during a protest rally" Irving, and Maliek "rolly polly" Collins.

This year they will also get the premier performance from Charles Tapper, who is a physical freak. Miscast as a 3-4 DE at Oklahoma, Charles Tapper is 6'2'', 271 lbs, and runs a 4.59 FORTY!

You read that right. The guy is a freak.

So, what happens when you get two of the worst starting Tackles in the league and ask them to block guys like Tyrone Crawford, Charles Tapper, Taco Charlton, and Demarcus Lawrence?

17 points. Maybe 20.

On the flip side, the Cowboys have lost a player that no one seems to give a fart about, but you should, and I'll tell you why.

In 2014, the Cowboys were the best in the league at 3rd and short run-play conversions. It's no secret that they had the best record in the NFC that year at 12-4, tied with the Seahawks and the Packers. If it weren't for a cruel twist of fate, they likely would have gone to the Super Bowl.

In 2015, even though Romo was injured, one thing got overlooked: the Cowboys were one of the worst in the league at third and short run-play conversions. This should not change based on QB, it's a run-conversion, and it's third and 2 or less.

In 2016, the Cowboys returned to dominance in this area, and we all know they had one of the better seasons in the league last year.

Why do I think this will regress back to being at least below average in 2017?

Ronald Leary. He is a bulldog who moves bodies. He was my favorite player on the Cowboys, and now he's gone. This works two fold here, fade the Cowboys scoring, and back the Broncos scoring.

When it is 3rd and 2 and Leary was on the field, the Cowboys would typically convert this opportunity. La'el Collins, for all of the punishing "pancake blocks" he delivers in space, is not adept at bulldogging his opponent two yards back.

This is going to make a huge difference in a Cowboys Offense that last year was able to rely on great RunBlocking to get Defenses to sell out against Ezekiel Elliott, leaving to easy passes for Prescott.

And that was WITH Leary in the fold. The Cowboys still only scored 19 in game one, and a whopping 7 in game two against the G Men.

I see the Cowboys putting up 17-20 points in this game.

This is the battle of one team who lost key pieces along its O Line in Dallas (Leary and Free)

vs.

One team who 1. never valued it enough to begin with, 2. did nothing significant to improve it in the Offseason, 3. do not find any correlation between their QB's significant regression and the O Line's.

This game will be a slugfest and the Total is set at.... 50.

Really now? 50.

Under 50 will be a significant play for me.

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When you are picking sides, sometimes there comes a time when every piece of information you find tells you that the spread is accurate. There is also times when you finally check the Total and realize this is the game that will be worth a huge investment.

The Cowboys and the Giants will come down to the wire. There is very little value unless the spread gets to 7. The one thing I am confident in is that this game is not going to be high scoring.

The Giants did not fix their O Line. Pugh and Richburg vs an entire Defense is the name of the Giants' game. Fluker is below average and has been for years. Flowers is an absolute trainwreck. At RT you're either relying on Hart or Newhouse, and either way, you are screwed.

The Cowboys Defensively lose Morris Claiborne, a very underrated part of their hot start last year, as well as Brandon Carr, a player who while not impressive played very well last year.

However, they gain Taco Charlton, a guy whose tape I love coming out of Michigan. They already had a solid D Line last year, featuring breakout performances from David "rip stop signs out of the ground during a protest rally" Irving, and Maliek "rolly polly" Collins.

This year they will also get the premier performance from Charles Tapper, who is a physical freak. Miscast as a 3-4 DE at Oklahoma, Charles Tapper is 6'2'', 271 lbs, and runs a 4.59 FORTY!

You read that right. The guy is a freak.

So, what happens when you get two of the worst starting Tackles in the league and ask them to block guys like Tyrone Crawford, Charles Tapper, Taco Charlton, and Demarcus Lawrence?

17 points. Maybe 20.

On the flip side, the Cowboys have lost a player that no one seems to give a fart about, but you should, and I'll tell you why.

In 2014, the Cowboys were the best in the league at 3rd and short run-play conversions. It's no secret that they had the best record in the NFC that year at 12-4, tied with the Seahawks and the Packers. If it weren't for a cruel twist of fate, they likely would have gone to the Super Bowl.

In 2015, even though Romo was injured, one thing got overlooked: the Cowboys were one of the worst in the league at third and short run-play conversions. This should not change based on QB, it's a run-conversion, and it's third and 2 or less.

In 2016, the Cowboys returned to dominance in this area, and we all know they had one of the better seasons in the league last year.

Why do I think this will regress back to being at least below average in 2017?

Ronald Leary. He is a bulldog who moves bodies. He was my favorite player on the Cowboys, and now he's gone. This works two fold here, fade the Cowboys scoring, and back the Broncos scoring.

When it is 3rd and 2 and Leary was on the field, the Cowboys would typically convert this opportunity. La'el Collins, for all of the punishing "pancake blocks" he delivers in space, is not adept at bulldogging his opponent two yards back.

This is going to make a huge difference in a Cowboys Offense that last year was able to rely on great RunBlocking to get Defenses to sell out against Ezekiel Elliott, leaving to easy passes for Prescott.

And that was WITH Leary in the fold. The Cowboys still only scored 19 in game one, and a whopping 7 in game two against the G Men.

I see the Cowboys putting up 17-20 points in this game.

This is the battle of one team who lost key pieces along its O Line in Dallas (Leary and Free)

vs.

One team who 1. never valued it enough to begin with, 2. did nothing significant to improve it in the Offseason, 3. do not find any correlation between their QB's significant regression and the O Line's.

This game will be a slugfest and the Total is set at.... 50.

Really now? 50.

Under 50 will be a significant play for me.

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Posted: Jun. 17, 2017 - 2:08 PM ET #28

An update on my New Orleans pick: Unfortunately Terron Armstead will be out for this game with a serious injury suffered yesterday. Big hit for the team.

More than likely they will have to move Andrus Peat out to LT and start rookie Ramczyk at LG. That is just my belief, they can go any direction with this.

I still feel as though the Saints front has the talent to overcome this, assuming that Unger makes it for Week 1, which I believe he will.

The matchup of this game is Saints D v. Vikings O. I believe this matchup determines winner, and the Saints D still has the advantage.

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Posted: Jun. 25, 2017 - 3:50 PM ET #29

BOL this year bud

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Posted: Jun. 25, 2017 - 5:41 PM ET #30

Thank you, monster grit and of course, the incomparable Dr. Success.

Your insight in my inbox is always well welcomed.

I am currently very focused on Canadian Football, a league in which I have been successful every year, and am currently 3-2 after week one.

I will certainly return and explain every pick but I have decided to share, quickly, where my head is on each game with a short description:

Patriots -7.5 v. KC

UNDER 49. Strong play. Chiefs +7.5, under consideration

Jets +9 @ Bills

This is where the line will be come September. Considering the Jets with the points. Not a Moneyline dog, but a veteran QB joins the Jets. Morris Claiborne always starts seasons as a great DB, two new safeties. Bruce Carter has potential to bounce back after an abysmal 2015 and 2016. Very good Defensive mind against a team with no Wide Receivers...

However, my actual play is the Total here, UNDER 42.5.

I don't see this as more than a 24-17 game, making the total a deceptively high score. Will I bet it? that's 4.5 points of value, and personally I see better games on the board. Until Preseason, you know nothing of what Bowles has done with his team's mentality. If they come out and see some success with some swagger, you will be getting a team with a very big chip on their shoulder and could be of great value if given 9.

Again, Offseason narrative matters. If the books readjust based on speculation and a flood of Buffalo money, you will be getting a team that wants to limit possessions and rely on Defense in a game that is priced at 42.5.

Tampa Bay +2 at Miami.

This game has blowout written all over it. The Dolphins lost their mediocre Defensive Coordinator. They may find a boss to replace him, but I doubt it.

I really like the Dolphins' concepts, but I hate that they are being executed in THIS game by Tannehill.

I love Tannehill against mediocre Defenses. I don't love Tannehill when he is under pressure.

Tannehill had the highest TRUE snap to release ratios in the NFL amongst qualifying starters. He held the ball on average of 2.32 seconds per drop back on non-screen or scramble plays. You MUST keep scrambles and screens out of the number or you won't get Tannehill's "Decision time" properly calibrated.

Now you have Tannehill going against the BUCS? He's going to hold the ball, and he's going to get sacked. And you're going to have to outscore Jameis Winston.

Bucs +2

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Thank you, monster grit and of course, the incomparable Dr. Success.

Your insight in my inbox is always well welcomed.

I am currently very focused on Canadian Football, a league in which I have been successful every year, and am currently 3-2 after week one.

I will certainly return and explain every pick but I have decided to share, quickly, where my head is on each game with a short description:

Patriots -7.5 v. KC

UNDER 49. Strong play. Chiefs +7.5, under consideration

Jets +9 @ Bills

This is where the line will be come September. Considering the Jets with the points. Not a Moneyline dog, but a veteran QB joins the Jets. Morris Claiborne always starts seasons as a great DB, two new safeties. Bruce Carter has potential to bounce back after an abysmal 2015 and 2016. Very good Defensive mind against a team with no Wide Receivers...

However, my actual play is the Total here, UNDER 42.5.

I don't see this as more than a 24-17 game, making the total a deceptively high score. Will I bet it? that's 4.5 points of value, and personally I see better games on the board. Until Preseason, you know nothing of what Bowles has done with his team's mentality. If they come out and see some success with some swagger, you will be getting a team with a very big chip on their shoulder and could be of great value if given 9.

Again, Offseason narrative matters. If the books readjust based on speculation and a flood of Buffalo money, you will be getting a team that wants to limit possessions and rely on Defense in a game that is priced at 42.5.

Tampa Bay +2 at Miami.

This game has blowout written all over it. The Dolphins lost their mediocre Defensive Coordinator. They may find a boss to replace him, but I doubt it.

I really like the Dolphins' concepts, but I hate that they are being executed in THIS game by Tannehill.

I love Tannehill against mediocre Defenses. I don't love Tannehill when he is under pressure.

Tannehill had the highest TRUE snap to release ratios in the NFL amongst qualifying starters. He held the ball on average of 2.32 seconds per drop back on non-screen or scramble plays. You MUST keep scrambles and screens out of the number or you won't get Tannehill's "Decision time" properly calibrated.

Now you have Tannehill going against the BUCS? He's going to hold the ball, and he's going to get sacked. And you're going to have to outscore Jameis Winston.

Bucs +2

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Posted: Jun. 25, 2017 - 6:20 PM ET #31

Arizona Detroit:

BORING.

I don't trust either.

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Posted: Jun. 25, 2017 - 6:23 PM ET #32

Rams Colts: I'm watching Andrew Luck. I'm watching how Wade Phillips plans to use Aaron Donald, DEs are usually not his best pass rushers. He is going to have to use Connor Barwin, which will be good for Barwin. He has at least one very good DB to work with and one very good Safety.

Might be interesting to think about LA plus the points if the right amount of confidence is gained Preseason.

Preseason is about MENTALITY. Find your winners from the neck up.

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Posted: Jun. 25, 2017 - 6:29 PM ET #33

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland +10

I'm looking for +10. It's currently +9.

I'm still staying away from it currently because the Steelers have a very good team.

I cannot wait to see Senquez Goldson, but I'm also worried that the standout from Ole Miss has missed two straight years. If he misses this year, his career is over. But if he returns, we don't know who he is yet. He is a player to watch in Preseason because if he is the same guy he is going to be a difference maker.

The Browns, on the other hand, are going to be a very interesting squad.

Questions already surface regarding Myles Garrett's toughness. We are likely getting a marshmallow who is very talented.

Hopefully we see that burst on game day, but I have a feeling he is simply going to be an above average player because he lacks the focus and toughness snap in and snap out.

However, the Browns also got Caleb Brantley, the bipolar opposite of the Garrett "powder puff". Same goes for Jabril Peppers, and definitely Calvin Pryor.

The Browns are going to be a load this year Defensively, and I wouldn't so much as run to play the Browns +10 v. the Steelers week one as I would stay away from the Steelers -9 or -10 Week 1.

This game is going to surprise you guys, it won't be 35-10, but more like 27 to 17 with a very comfortable win for the Steelers, but a very uncomfortable sweat for Steelers backers that could very easily end in a Browns backdoor cover at 27 to 20. Kick yourself, you forgot that feeling in the offseason.

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Posted: Jun. 26, 2017 - 2:40 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by CautionerSports:

Great analysis Porcelain. Some of these concepts to this 49ers game is why I am looking to bet OVER 48. 49ers will put up 27 points in this one

Cautioner, why do you think this will go O48. Would you be able to give some more depth to your reasoning please.

With the Marine Layer fog possibility in SF the trend has been U albeit with a 4 game sample. (Since 2014, SF h games in Sept 1O3U

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Posted: Jun. 27, 2017 - 4:27 PM ET #35

if you think the Falcons ( wanting to get the Super Bowl taste out of their mouths) don't go into a putrid Chicago and roll you are high

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Posted: Jun. 28, 2017 - 9:20 PM ET #36

What this comment tells me is that you don't believe a great Offensive Coordinator matters. They do.

It also tells me you think I am advocating the Bears, I am not. I am saying that I won't be backing the Falcons.

will the Falcons roll? Maybe. But if you think the Falcons playing in Chicago on opening day on the first day for new Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkesian is the best spot to take them, I would greatly disagree.

I like the Falcons, but the Bears were shredded with injuries last year, they are healthy now. The Falcons out scored teams and were mediocre on Defense, now they're losing their genius OC. The Falcons are the faster team, but Soldier Field is the slowest turf in the NFL.

Gun to my head? I'd take The Falcons, but there isn't a gun to my head and there are many better plays in the board.

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Posted: Jun. 29, 2017 - 4:31 AM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

What this comment tells me is that you don't believe a great Offensive Coordinator matters. They do.

It also tells me you think I am advocating the Bears, I am not. I am saying that I won't be backing the Falcons.

will the Falcons roll? Maybe. But if you think the Falcons playing in Chicago on opening day on the first day for new Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkesian is the best spot to take them, I would greatly disagree.

I like the Falcons, but the Bears were shredded with injuries last year, they are healthy now. The Falcons out scored teams and were mediocre on Defense, now they're losing their genius OC. The Falcons are the faster team, but Soldier Field is the slowest turf in the NFL.

Gun to my head? I'd take The Falcons, but there isn't a gun to my head and there are many better plays in the board.

Porcelainfist - is there any evidence to back up that the Solider Field turf is the slowest or is that just an observation? Thanks

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Posted: Jun. 29, 2017 - 8:55 AM ET #38

There have been many player testimonials throughout the years, although observationally it is obvious as well. Google soldier field crappy grass.

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Posted: Jun. 29, 2017 - 8:57 AM ET #39

Literally two seconds on google revealed a study by a PHD in soil science.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2015/10/01/nfl-stadium-turf-grass-rankings

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Posted: Jun. 29, 2017 - 9:36 AM ET #40

Great thanks
I will do that

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Posted: Jul. 3, 2017 - 3:42 PM ET #41

We are loving Ten +1 but feel like it will rise higher by game day.

Also some Atlanta / Chicago props once they open up.

Going to be another profitable season.

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Posted: Jul. 4, 2017 - 10:56 AM ET #42

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Posted: Aug. 4, 2017 - 9:58 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

Every game Against the Spread:

Kansas City +7.5 v. New England.

Andy Reid off the longest bye week of all, given more than a TD? It's not as though the Patriots have zero weaknesses, and this game is not likely to be a bloodbath.

Vegas knows that it will be amateur hour on the first play of the year, so why not make the Pats 7.5 point favorites so they are assured KC will cover?

Reid eats clock, that's why he is so fat. He knows one way in which they can win this game is by grinding the Patriots down with flat passes and gut punches.

I have no illusions, this is no sure thing, but 7.5 is a lot on Opening Night.

I like KC as well. Playoff revenge & a full TD like you mentioned is a lot for week 1

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