I'll have to give it more thought. But yes, different games seems better to me.
Consider the extreme scenario where one has the exact same entries on both cards. Well, if that were the case, then what's the point of having two entrants at all? When you consider that, it indicates that possibly the other extreme, all different picks on both cards, might be the better way to go.
What's the goal when you have two entrants? Most likely it would be to maximize the chances that at least ONE card does well, not both cards. If you wanted to maximize the chances that BOTH cards did well, then yes, select the same exact picks on each card. Two to the 5th power equals 32... 31 to 1 against a perfect sweep... for both cards.
But we don't care about BOTH cards, right? We want to increase that odds that at least one of them, not both, does well. And with different picks on the two cards you now have TWO chances each at 31 to 1 against.
There's more to it than this, of course. Lots of NFL games are just too hard to pick at all. And your skills as a handicapper and how your "best picks" or "3 star picks" have done in the past also needs to be considered.
It's an interesting logic / probability / mathematical problem.
I should have read this earlier in the week.
Just a total disaster for me this week. Both of my games on the two cards lost, and the rest are not much better.
I have been in this contest a total of 35 weeks. In the 34 previous to today, I have had a losing record 1 time.
In week 35, I will have 2.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
I'll have to give it more thought. But yes, different games seems better to me.
Consider the extreme scenario where one has the exact same entries on both cards. Well, if that were the case, then what's the point of having two entrants at all? When you consider that, it indicates that possibly the other extreme, all different picks on both cards, might be the better way to go.
What's the goal when you have two entrants? Most likely it would be to maximize the chances that at least ONE card does well, not both cards. If you wanted to maximize the chances that BOTH cards did well, then yes, select the same exact picks on each card. Two to the 5th power equals 32... 31 to 1 against a perfect sweep... for both cards.
But we don't care about BOTH cards, right? We want to increase that odds that at least one of them, not both, does well. And with different picks on the two cards you now have TWO chances each at 31 to 1 against.
There's more to it than this, of course. Lots of NFL games are just too hard to pick at all. And your skills as a handicapper and how your "best picks" or "3 star picks" have done in the past also needs to be considered.
It's an interesting logic / probability / mathematical problem.
I should have read this earlier in the week.
Just a total disaster for me this week. Both of my games on the two cards lost, and the rest are not much better.
I have been in this contest a total of 35 weeks. In the 34 previous to today, I have had a losing record 1 time.
3-2 for me. Thought the Lions were going to get me to 4-1. Not the start I wanted but I know it could be worse. I'm keeping a journal to document my thoughts both prior and after each weeks picks in order to learn as much as possible throughout the tourny. For this week, my system identified 8 teams: KC, Cinc, and Denver were the other 3 I weeded out. I think that whenever we narrow our plays down to 5 we need to look at the biggest QB discrepancy. For example instead of Marriota/ Winston or Stafford/Rivers I could have gone with Dalton/Carr or Alex Smith/Hoyer. Much bigger difference between talent in the latter 2 choices. Just my 2 cents. Rudy you have a chance for 4.5 points I'm rooting for ya!
Keeping a journal is a great idea. I always say that gamblers never look back to understand why they won or lost. It really will make you better to do it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by swolesbee:
3-2 for me. Thought the Lions were going to get me to 4-1. Not the start I wanted but I know it could be worse. I'm keeping a journal to document my thoughts both prior and after each weeks picks in order to learn as much as possible throughout the tourny. For this week, my system identified 8 teams: KC, Cinc, and Denver were the other 3 I weeded out. I think that whenever we narrow our plays down to 5 we need to look at the biggest QB discrepancy. For example instead of Marriota/ Winston or Stafford/Rivers I could have gone with Dalton/Carr or Alex Smith/Hoyer. Much bigger difference between talent in the latter 2 choices. Just my 2 cents. Rudy you have a chance for 4.5 points I'm rooting for ya!
Keeping a journal is a great idea. I always say that gamblers never look back to understand why they won or lost. It really will make you better to do it.
I am 1-4 on one card, and if the Falcons hold on will be 2-3 on the other.
I am generally going to get killed when the consensus top 10 goes 9-1 and all the popular favorites cover.
Just gotta get back next week.
Van,
garbage happens. I'm 1-01, my partner is 0-2, We need the Vikes tonight to be 2-2-1 and 2.5 games behind the lead with a tough week looming. Im confident from following you for two years that you will rebound. I think you should rank your top ten games straight up. The top 3-4 should hit and all others should be hit or miss. Put 1 and 4 and 2 AND 3 on seperate cards, then divide the last 6 of your top ten across the board.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I am 1-4 on one card, and if the Falcons hold on will be 2-3 on the other.
I am generally going to get killed when the consensus top 10 goes 9-1 and all the popular favorites cover.
Just gotta get back next week.
Van,
garbage happens. I'm 1-01, my partner is 0-2, We need the Vikes tonight to be 2-2-1 and 2.5 games behind the lead with a tough week looming. Im confident from following you for two years that you will rebound. I think you should rank your top ten games straight up. The top 3-4 should hit and all others should be hit or miss. Put 1 and 4 and 2 AND 3 on seperate cards, then divide the last 6 of your top ten across the board.
my personal opinion on the 2 separate cards is that it is definitely a good idea to have 1,or sumtimes 2 if appropriate,"anchors" so to speak that go on each card...on any given week surely there is a pick or 2 that really stands out to you as being a better chance than most so surely if you trust your handicapping ability and expect to hit on those at a very high rate over the long run (65%+??) then you are best served to have that pick in each card....obviously its very difficult to expect to hit at a high rate on all 5 picks over the full season and i guess sum weeks you mite even be scratching to put 5 together that really stand out.so others can just be mixed and matched.
of course it is costly on the week it misses but like i said,if the best play hits at a seriously good clip then it pays dividends over the full season.
unless of course you like all 5 plays perfectly equally on any given week...in which case disregard everything above.
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my personal opinion on the 2 separate cards is that it is definitely a good idea to have 1,or sumtimes 2 if appropriate,"anchors" so to speak that go on each card...on any given week surely there is a pick or 2 that really stands out to you as being a better chance than most so surely if you trust your handicapping ability and expect to hit on those at a very high rate over the long run (65%+??) then you are best served to have that pick in each card....obviously its very difficult to expect to hit at a high rate on all 5 picks over the full season and i guess sum weeks you mite even be scratching to put 5 together that really stand out.so others can just be mixed and matched.
of course it is costly on the week it misses but like i said,if the best play hits at a seriously good clip then it pays dividends over the full season.
unless of course you like all 5 plays perfectly equally on any given week...in which case disregard everything above.
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Hey thanks again for the proxy referral. Everything went well in vegas. Appreciate your help 
wat the hell are ya talking about??
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