Werker's NFL Futures

Niners13 I also like the Niners OVER a little,I think with the new coach and signings along with Josh Freeman rebounding sets them up to be more competitve this and maybe hit that total over.There defense scarys me a little.

     Looking at the Cowboys i think this year Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant become forces to be recon with,let's not forget they had the Giants beat BUT ROMO couldn't collect with a wide open Miles Austin late in game.

      I'm not a Cowboys fan just like my bet 15-1 to win the NFC.

      The Bears are going to be interesting but something BAD always seems to happen to them.

 Like Rodgers -5.5 TD's over both Peyton and Eli.

    Cruz + 55.5    Dez PICK TD's

    gl

Hey Werker a big shout out to you and I hope you had a great off season.

I just listened to a Chad Millman podcast at ESPN and he was interviewing one of the top LV wiseguys, Bill Krackomberger and he liked the following season totals:

N.E. under 12.5
Browns over 4.5
Raiders over 7.5

The Browns number is sitting at 5.5 to 6.0 now.

Good Luck!

It seems the venerable football think tank Football Outsiders has made a somewhat shocking prediction in their 2012 almanac that the 49'ers will close out the season with a 7-9. It's hard not to take a double take when considering that the team returns all of its defensive starters, they play in a relatively weak division, and they've made  moves to address their weakness at wide receiver. What's up? Apparently the last 13 teams to finish with a 13-3 record won an average of 8.3 games the following season with only three of those teams finishing better than 9-7. Over the same period, the 19 teams finishing 13-3 or better all finished with lesser records the next year. The average drop was 4.1 victories  per team. To bolster their prediction F.O. points out that defense and special teams have a higher performance variance, both 49er strenghts, from one season to the next.

I'm not one for blindly following stats, so was wondering if anyone out there has an opinion on this interesting stuff from Football Outsiders.

I just listened to a podcast at ESPN (behind the bets) and Chad Millman was interviewing Fezzik the two time HILTON contest winner and he was talking about season totals.

Chicago (over) he claims it's a no brainer.

SF (under) he noted some of the reasons I mentioned in my previous post but also pointed to the 49'ers schedule which was easy last year and average this year. Also, he talked about the 49'ers TO ratio and said it would be impossible to duplicate the +1.8 per game turnover ratio. As for injuries, the 49'ers were pretty healthy last year and the odds were that they won't be as lucky this year. One last thing, he looked at S.F. schedule last year and pointed to a couple of games they were lucky to win (Eagles, ?) and said realistically they should have only won 11 games.

Any opinions on G.B. season totals. They play in division where Chicago and Detroit are on the rise. They have questions at RB and their OL is not much better than OK. Also, their defense is suspect. I guess you could be a contrarian and point to the fact their defense is bound to improve this year and they went 15-1 with a terrible defense last year. Also, I read where Rodgers has been sacked an average of 39 times a year over the last four seasons. Who knows, maybe Rodgers will get banged up or suffer an injury this year, but then again maybe he's an iron man. Oh well, just food for thought. Any opinions?

As for the Eagles schedule, they play four teams coming off a bye. That's a quarter of their schedule where they are at a slight disadvantage.