Werker's NFL Futures

Mischkin04, if you are willing, drop about $12.50 on Football Outsiders 2012 Almanac. I thought they had an excellent write up on the Bengals - lots of things to consider. Just off the top of my head here are some of the points they mentioned.

Bengals need to add a quality second WR to compliment A.J. Green and free him up from tons of double and triple teams.

Bengals are breaking in two new guards which might be a bit of a challenge.

B.J. Green Ellis adds dependability (no fumbles) but little in the way of fireworks. Football Outsiders believe outside of Green and Gresham the offense will lack explosiveness.

Dalton might take a step back this year. He lacks arm strength and was only 17-49 on his deep balls outside the numbers. Also Dalton finished with a 59.3 percent completion ratio.

In 2011 the Bengals were 0-8 vs. playoff teams and 9-0 vs. non-playoff teams.

Last year the Bengals were relatively healthy and were 13th in the league in Adjusted Games Lost due to injuries.

As for the defense, they are really deep on the defensive line, but I wonder how Leon Hall (their best DB) will bounce back from achilles tendon surgery - that's a tough injury to bounce back from.

Can the Bengals put together two consecutive seasons of reaching the playoffs? Their track record says no and there has always been questions abound about the front office - winning starts from the top.

Anyways, please do your own due diligence with regards to the stats provided because I haven't double checked them. I'd love to hear anybody else's opinion on the Bengals. I find it a pretty interesting situation.

I leave you with a direct quote from the Almanac about the Bengals:

always a good read and great isight,,lets hav a great yr.

Werker, thanks for the thumbs up! I've got NFL game pass and had a chance to watch the first quarter of Friday night's games. Here are some quick thoughts.

Atlanta's passing game looked in mid-season form and if J. Jones stays healthy he could have a monster year.

Philadelphia's defense looked really undisciplined - penalties, coverage breakdowns, and poor tackling and this is after the Eagles have ran a tough no nonsense training camp.

N.E. rookie C. Jones looks like an excellent first round pick for the Pats.

The Steelers are starting a rookie OT M. Adams and I thought he looked really poor in pass protection. M. Kendricks the Eagles first round draft pick looks very athletic and should be a solid contributor this season.

Also, I think the Chargers are heading in the right direction. They have brought a ton of free agents in and are trying to change the culture of the club. Their first round pick, Ingram, looks very athletic and has had a great camp which should help SD in the pressure department.

Anyways, just some random thoughts from day one of the preseason. It's early so we will see if some of these trends hold up.

WERKER... I have STL under 6 wins for the year, at +105

Can't see them getting to 4 wins, nevermind 6...!!!

Thanks for the great work

Just watching the first half of the SAINTS-JAGUARS game and the JAGS running game is looking really good despite the fact that they are missing several starters from their offensive line and MJD. Just off what I've seen in the last couple of preseason games it looks like Gabbert is going to take a step up this year. I'm not saying he's going to be spectacular but better than the Gabbert 2011 version. JAGS defense is pretty good so an improved offense could lead to them surprising some people. Any opinions?

What teams have caught your eyes, good or bad, this preseason?

Gabbert 13-16 112 yd 0 ints

If JAGS can establish running game and take the pressure off of Gabbert ...

Blackmon looks pretty good good underneath catching the ball in traffic and scoring a TD - dependable hands

Nothing much from L. Robinson - he's the deep threat, right?

Vagomach, I just watched the first half of the Bills-Vikings game and Minny's first teamers looked pretty good. It's going to be an important year for Ponder and he looked good tonight going 10-13 136 yards 1 td and no pics.

As for the offense, the addition of Simpson helps, the OL is very solid and Kalil has looked really good so far, Ponder should be better, Harvin is explosive, and Gerhart is a really good back. I guess the big question is how will Peterson perform coming off both ACL and MCL surgery. Also, look for Kyle Rudolph to emerge as a big part of this offense.

On defense they led the league in sacks last year and still managed to get shredded through the air. I don't know where the improvement is going to come from on defense. The only new face I see is safety Harrison Smith who looked pretty good against Buffalo. They have pretty tough sledding within the division and allowed an average of 32 PPG against Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit.

Anyways, here is an interesting STAT I came across: Ponder was the highest rated QB (114.3) in the redzone last year - go figure.

Anyways, if you took the U6, good luck.

Werker, I read a superb article at Grantland.com that made the case that the Denver Broncos will be a team in decline this year. Check it out at the link below and tell me what you think.

https://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8254748/peyton-manning-enough-make-denver-contender

Howzuck, I agree with you on the Dolphins. They have a new coaching staff and are installing new schemes on both sides of the ball. Do they have the receivers to run the west coast offense? They've decided to go with Tannehill which could spell big problems especially with the lack of surrounding talent. I see them having problems moving the ball through the air and stopping opposing passing attacks.

I really like the point you made about the Jets-Bills opener.

I see Denver at 9.0 under -110 which looks enticing. Football Outsiders grades the Broncos schedule to be the toughest in the NFL and the AFC WEST is on the upswing. The Broncos lost both starting DT to free agency and their veteran leader at safety, Brian Dawkins, retired. It might take a while for Manning and his new cast of receivers to get on the same page.

Another thing to consider is D.J. Williams, a key cog in their defense, is facing a six game suspension for P.E.D. and it's possible that Dummervil might have a date in the commisioners office. Last year their O.L. escaped the injury bug and was intact for the whole season, but alreay they've lost C. Kuper for a significant amount of time.

They've added quite a few free agents on defense but Football Outsiders seems to think none of these players are world beaters and goes on to question their draft strategy which indicates the team is in a rebuilding mode, not a win now mentality, which you would think would be the approach with the signing of an aging Peyton Manning.

Other factors seem to work against the Broncos. They won a load of close games against middling competition and the long term numbers say this will be difficult to duplicate.

Von Miller, is a spectacular pass rusher. No argument there! But there is a historical precedent for players coming off similar seasons to regress in their second year.

No doubt this is an interesting situation to keep an eye on.