Lines are made by simulations ... lol Bookmakers manipulate lines one way or the other due to a variety of things.. whether 50/50 action.. or liability of money coming on one side... but also 100 dollar sharp bettors can move a line on some games.. books have their sharp bettors labeled.. But sometimes books will pick a side.. it is the so called (trap game) trap, like people are referencing.. Vegas can live and die on one side sometimes.. they will make money regardless 90 percent of bettors are losers longterm...
Lines are made by simulations ... lol Bookmakers manipulate lines one way or the other due to a variety of things.. whether 50/50 action.. or liability of money coming on one side... but also 100 dollar sharp bettors can move a line on some games.. books have their sharp bettors labeled.. But sometimes books will pick a side.. it is the so called (trap game) trap, like people are referencing.. Vegas can live and die on one side sometimes.. they will make money regardless 90 percent of bettors are losers longterm...
@TJZags598 It's definitely not a narrow view. It's exactly how Sportsbooks work. Go into any book, they all have a Risk Management Executive........if you don't know this, you're misinformed.
Most Casinos have a Risk Management Department. Totally agree.
They manage exposure. definitely.
Vegas, however, is not looking to vreate 50-50 action. If they came out with perfect lines, few would bet.
They hope for 50-50 action at end of the day, but they prefer increasing the handle as their major goal.
Are you saying that Vegas is inefficient like Van?
@TJZags598 It's definitely not a narrow view. It's exactly how Sportsbooks work. Go into any book, they all have a Risk Management Executive........if you don't know this, you're misinformed.
Most Casinos have a Risk Management Department. Totally agree.
They manage exposure. definitely.
Vegas, however, is not looking to vreate 50-50 action. If they came out with perfect lines, few would bet.
They hope for 50-50 action at end of the day, but they prefer increasing the handle as their major goal.
Are you saying that Vegas is inefficient like Van?
@TJZags598 It doesn't take near the technology and access to inside information to make a line as you think it does. They certainly do not spend "100's of millions of dollars" on anything related to making pointspreads. Anybody with a copy of The Gold Sheet Power Ratings, and some knowledge of how the public reacts, and overreacts to team's recent performance can make a line and be within a point of the actual line. It's pretty basic stuff. The line is definitely made to draw equal action on both sides, and if it doesn't; they adjust it. However, it's not a big deal if it doesn't balance. There is enough random events during a game that can swing the score to one side or the other, so that the books know that with the vig, they will come out on top more often than not. There are inefficiencies in the market, and the oddsmakers know this. The vig will win out most of the time. The process is not nearly as complicated as you think it is.
Maybe the process is alot more complicated than you think it is?
How do you think Vegas is able to track prop bets, live betting, track bets, exposure.
Vegas does MILLIONS of simulations on games to generate these spreads. MILLIONS
@TJZags598 It doesn't take near the technology and access to inside information to make a line as you think it does. They certainly do not spend "100's of millions of dollars" on anything related to making pointspreads. Anybody with a copy of The Gold Sheet Power Ratings, and some knowledge of how the public reacts, and overreacts to team's recent performance can make a line and be within a point of the actual line. It's pretty basic stuff. The line is definitely made to draw equal action on both sides, and if it doesn't; they adjust it. However, it's not a big deal if it doesn't balance. There is enough random events during a game that can swing the score to one side or the other, so that the books know that with the vig, they will come out on top more often than not. There are inefficiencies in the market, and the oddsmakers know this. The vig will win out most of the time. The process is not nearly as complicated as you think it is.
Maybe the process is alot more complicated than you think it is?
How do you think Vegas is able to track prop bets, live betting, track bets, exposure.
Vegas does MILLIONS of simulations on games to generate these spreads. MILLIONS
Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1: @TJZags598 It's definitely not a narrow view. It's exactly how Sportsbooks work. Go into any book, they all have a Risk Management Executive........if you don't know this, you're misinformed. Most Casinos have a Risk Management Department. Totally agree. They manage exposure. definitely. Vegas, however, is not looking to vreate 50-50 action. If they came out with perfect lines, few would bet. They hope for 50-50 action at end of the day, but they prefer increasing the handle as their major goal. Are you saying that Vegas is inefficient like Van?
Don't quote me when you don't even understand what I say.
Vegas isn't inefficient. The term doesn't even apply in that context.
Markets are either efficient or inefficient. Any market that is created by the public influence can be inefficient.
Our job as sports gamblers is to find inefficiency, or edges.
It's very simple. Sportsbooks set a line. Not to get volume (absurd), but to get equal action. They don't care about results. Then they adjust that line based on action directly with them or at other books (air moves).
Books don't care about results. They care what the public is going to bet.
Back at it dopes.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1: @TJZags598 It's definitely not a narrow view. It's exactly how Sportsbooks work. Go into any book, they all have a Risk Management Executive........if you don't know this, you're misinformed. Most Casinos have a Risk Management Department. Totally agree. They manage exposure. definitely. Vegas, however, is not looking to vreate 50-50 action. If they came out with perfect lines, few would bet. They hope for 50-50 action at end of the day, but they prefer increasing the handle as their major goal. Are you saying that Vegas is inefficient like Van?
Don't quote me when you don't even understand what I say.
Vegas isn't inefficient. The term doesn't even apply in that context.
Markets are either efficient or inefficient. Any market that is created by the public influence can be inefficient.
Our job as sports gamblers is to find inefficiency, or edges.
It's very simple. Sportsbooks set a line. Not to get volume (absurd), but to get equal action. They don't care about results. Then they adjust that line based on action directly with them or at other books (air moves).
Books don't care about results. They care what the public is going to bet.
Lol at thinking books make lines aimed to get 5050 action. They do not care about 99.5% of bettors. That 5050 can become 7525 in the matter of seconds. By that thinking they'd open something -3... see it's getting 80% of action... flip it to like -7.5... even it out, etc. They'd get exposed by big bettors that actually matter taking advantage of inefficient lines, middling, etc.
Lol at thinking books make lines aimed to get 5050 action. They do not care about 99.5% of bettors. That 5050 can become 7525 in the matter of seconds. By that thinking they'd open something -3... see it's getting 80% of action... flip it to like -7.5... even it out, etc. They'd get exposed by big bettors that actually matter taking advantage of inefficient lines, middling, etc.
They may set it a certain way and it may insinuate something but theres never ever a lock based solely off a line. In other words, saying "The Chiefs is clearly too easy" makes no sense. Its not rigged and its not foretold. At least I certainly hope not. These are human beings about to go out and play a football game. Theres a human element, etc. Anything can happen. In any case I hope people understand what I'm getting at because I'm not sure how many points I can be awarded for clarity here.
They may set it a certain way and it may insinuate something but theres never ever a lock based solely off a line. In other words, saying "The Chiefs is clearly too easy" makes no sense. Its not rigged and its not foretold. At least I certainly hope not. These are human beings about to go out and play a football game. Theres a human element, etc. Anything can happen. In any case I hope people understand what I'm getting at because I'm not sure how many points I can be awarded for clarity here.
Lol at thinking books make lines aimed to get 5050 action. They do not care about 99.5% of bettors. That 5050 can become 7525 in the matter of seconds. By that thinking they'd open something -3... see it's getting 80% of action... flip it to like -7.5... even it out, etc. They'd get exposed by big bettors that actually matter taking advantage of inefficient lines, middling, etc.
Word salad from a caveman.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Lol at thinking books make lines aimed to get 5050 action. They do not care about 99.5% of bettors. That 5050 can become 7525 in the matter of seconds. By that thinking they'd open something -3... see it's getting 80% of action... flip it to like -7.5... even it out, etc. They'd get exposed by big bettors that actually matter taking advantage of inefficient lines, middling, etc.
Keep thinking lines are set to get equal action. Yikes. Evidence is right in front of you with this lopsided Super Bowl. It's right around 2:1 KC currently. Bad guess from the books I guess
Keep thinking lines are set to get equal action. Yikes. Evidence is right in front of you with this lopsided Super Bowl. It's right around 2:1 KC currently. Bad guess from the books I guess
Lines arent "made" by bookmakers. A bookmakers job is to set an initial line that they think will get 50% action on each side. Then they adjust it if they are off. When lines are made by the betting public, there are always going to be inefficiencies in that market. Your job as a bettor is to spot those inefficiencies, and take advantage of them. The concept is very very very easy.
Bullshit! Vegas takes positions on games all the time. Maybe not everyone of them but they do quite often.
“The average erect gorilla penis is 3cm (1.25 inches) long”
Lines arent "made" by bookmakers. A bookmakers job is to set an initial line that they think will get 50% action on each side. Then they adjust it if they are off. When lines are made by the betting public, there are always going to be inefficiencies in that market. Your job as a bettor is to spot those inefficiencies, and take advantage of them. The concept is very very very easy.
Bullshit! Vegas takes positions on games all the time. Maybe not everyone of them but they do quite often.
Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598: Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1: @TJZags598 It's definitely not a narrow view. It's exactly how Sportsbooks work. Go into any book, they all have a Risk Management Executive........if you don't know this, you're misinformed. Most Casinos have a Risk Management Department. Totally agree. They manage exposure. definitely. Vegas, however, is not looking to vreate 50-50 action. If they came out with perfect lines, few would bet. They hope for 50-50 action at end of the day, but they prefer increasing the handle as their major goal. Are you saying that Vegas is inefficient like Van? Don't quote me when you don't even understand what I say. Vegas isn't inefficient. The term doesn't even apply in that context. Markets are either efficient or inefficient. Any market that is created by the public influence can be inefficient. Our job as sports gamblers is to find inefficiency, or edges. It's very simple. Sportsbooks set a line. Not to get volume (absurd), but to get equal action. They don't care about results. Then they adjust that line based on action directly with them or at other books (air moves). Books don't care about results. They care what the public is going to bet. Back at it dopes.
Books want volume, without a doubt.
Why do you think each and every day they come out with more and more prop bets and exotic bets?
Its based-on volume, because it generate more revenues.
Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598: Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1: @TJZags598 It's definitely not a narrow view. It's exactly how Sportsbooks work. Go into any book, they all have a Risk Management Executive........if you don't know this, you're misinformed. Most Casinos have a Risk Management Department. Totally agree. They manage exposure. definitely. Vegas, however, is not looking to vreate 50-50 action. If they came out with perfect lines, few would bet. They hope for 50-50 action at end of the day, but they prefer increasing the handle as their major goal. Are you saying that Vegas is inefficient like Van? Don't quote me when you don't even understand what I say. Vegas isn't inefficient. The term doesn't even apply in that context. Markets are either efficient or inefficient. Any market that is created by the public influence can be inefficient. Our job as sports gamblers is to find inefficiency, or edges. It's very simple. Sportsbooks set a line. Not to get volume (absurd), but to get equal action. They don't care about results. Then they adjust that line based on action directly with them or at other books (air moves). Books don't care about results. They care what the public is going to bet. Back at it dopes.
Books want volume, without a doubt.
Why do you think each and every day they come out with more and more prop bets and exotic bets?
Its based-on volume, because it generate more revenues.
@vanzack Keep thinking lines are set to get equal action. Yikes. Evidence is right in front of you with this lopsided Super Bowl. It's right around 2:1 KC currently. Bad guess from the books I guess
What book dummy?
Here's the thing....
If you look at DK or any other square book - you might see 66% on one side. Maybe thats a real number that is actually accurate (which it probably isnt but lets pretend).
At another non-square book, it might be 66% the other way.
DK cant move off of the number everyone has because they will get one sided. So when you birdbrains look at these "betting percentages" from books - it is just from one book. That book has a profile. That profile dictates their action. They are limited in when they move and for how much - because square books that release these numbers dont actually dictate line moves - they just have to move when real books move.
Think about it. Please.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
@vanzack Keep thinking lines are set to get equal action. Yikes. Evidence is right in front of you with this lopsided Super Bowl. It's right around 2:1 KC currently. Bad guess from the books I guess
What book dummy?
Here's the thing....
If you look at DK or any other square book - you might see 66% on one side. Maybe thats a real number that is actually accurate (which it probably isnt but lets pretend).
At another non-square book, it might be 66% the other way.
DK cant move off of the number everyone has because they will get one sided. So when you birdbrains look at these "betting percentages" from books - it is just from one book. That book has a profile. That profile dictates their action. They are limited in when they move and for how much - because square books that release these numbers dont actually dictate line moves - they just have to move when real books move.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Lines arent "made" by bookmakers. A bookmakers job is to set an initial line that they think will get 50% action on each side. Then they adjust it if they are off. When lines are made by the betting public, there are always going to be inefficiencies in that market. Your job as a bettor is to spot those inefficiencies, and take advantage of them. The concept is very very very easy. Bullshit! Vegas takes positions on games all the time. Maybe not everyone of them but they do quite often.
Well, since Buffer says so....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Lines arent "made" by bookmakers. A bookmakers job is to set an initial line that they think will get 50% action on each side. Then they adjust it if they are off. When lines are made by the betting public, there are always going to be inefficiencies in that market. Your job as a bettor is to spot those inefficiencies, and take advantage of them. The concept is very very very easy. Bullshit! Vegas takes positions on games all the time. Maybe not everyone of them but they do quite often.
Can I say that they open lines early to test the market and early sharps will grab them right away and so they have to adjust before they sell it on the market?
Now here's the thing. There are so many books out there, from big guys to small guys but it seems like the majority of them all have the same line and when line moves, they all moved with it.
This tells me that most books do not have a line maker. They just wait till the big guys who are able to take a big bet to throw a line and the rest will follow that line. This is to prevent guys who are shopping for lines.
Can I say that they open lines early to test the market and early sharps will grab them right away and so they have to adjust before they sell it on the market?
Now here's the thing. There are so many books out there, from big guys to small guys but it seems like the majority of them all have the same line and when line moves, they all moved with it.
This tells me that most books do not have a line maker. They just wait till the big guys who are able to take a big bet to throw a line and the rest will follow that line. This is to prevent guys who are shopping for lines.
There are so many books out there, from big guys to small guys but it seems like the majority of them all have the same line and when line moves, they all moved with it.
This is also what I observed. The line movement is synchronized with all books (Not in real time but within a small time window). Does this mean every books received the same unbalanced action so they all have to adjust the line exactly the same ?
There are so many books out there, from big guys to small guys but it seems like the majority of them all have the same line and when line moves, they all moved with it.
This is also what I observed. The line movement is synchronized with all books (Not in real time but within a small time window). Does this mean every books received the same unbalanced action so they all have to adjust the line exactly the same ?
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf: There are so many books out there, from big guys to small guys but it seems like the majority of them all have the same line and when line moves, they all moved with it. This is also what I observed. The line movement is synchronized with all books (Not in real time but within a small time window). Does this mean every books received the same unbalanced action so they all have to adjust the line exactly the same ?
Every small books have that one guy who watches lines in real time. I mean even a local bookie has to adjust his lines somehow right?
I grew up in a bookie family. All the uncles are doing it. The flexibility is if they want to take a gamble and hold bets or dump all bets that are heavily one sided to another bookie so they don't take a big lost.
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf: There are so many books out there, from big guys to small guys but it seems like the majority of them all have the same line and when line moves, they all moved with it. This is also what I observed. The line movement is synchronized with all books (Not in real time but within a small time window). Does this mean every books received the same unbalanced action so they all have to adjust the line exactly the same ?
Every small books have that one guy who watches lines in real time. I mean even a local bookie has to adjust his lines somehow right?
I grew up in a bookie family. All the uncles are doing it. The flexibility is if they want to take a gamble and hold bets or dump all bets that are heavily one sided to another bookie so they don't take a big lost.
That's all the major ones combined online. I understand it might be a little off. But 2:1 sounds right right to me from the chatter I hear and see. Surprised it's not 3:1 tbh and it might be
That's all the major ones combined online. I understand it might be a little off. But 2:1 sounds right right to me from the chatter I hear and see. Surprised it's not 3:1 tbh and it might be
@TJZags598 I worked in Las Vegas, in the gaming industry for 35 years. I'm not guessing at this shit. Computer simulations of games - Get the fuck outta here!
@TJZags598 I worked in Las Vegas, in the gaming industry for 35 years. I'm not guessing at this shit. Computer simulations of games - Get the fuck outta here!
simulations ??......lol....sorry it doesn't work like that.
A line is determined by a group of line makers (about 6 to 8 guys, sometimes more, sometimes less) they discuss what would be the best opening number on, for example, an NFL game. After deliberation(taking everything into consideration like teaser exposure, sharp action, joe public perception etc.), they decide on an opening number and release it. The market will immediately pounce on one side or the other if the line is perceived to be "off".....thus the books have to adjust immediately to even out the action. If the opening line is deemed sharp , it generates good two way action from the get go and little or no movement of the line is needed.
Again....ONLY money will move a line. OR, an injury to a player deemed worthy of points ATS.
Books don't adjust lines just to fuck with the public, as so many conspirators think here on Covers. It just doesn't happen.
simulations ??......lol....sorry it doesn't work like that.
A line is determined by a group of line makers (about 6 to 8 guys, sometimes more, sometimes less) they discuss what would be the best opening number on, for example, an NFL game. After deliberation(taking everything into consideration like teaser exposure, sharp action, joe public perception etc.), they decide on an opening number and release it. The market will immediately pounce on one side or the other if the line is perceived to be "off".....thus the books have to adjust immediately to even out the action. If the opening line is deemed sharp , it generates good two way action from the get go and little or no movement of the line is needed.
Again....ONLY money will move a line. OR, an injury to a player deemed worthy of points ATS.
Books don't adjust lines just to fuck with the public, as so many conspirators think here on Covers. It just doesn't happen.
@vanzack That's all the major ones combined online. I understand it might be a little off. But 2:1 sounds right right to me from the chatter I hear and see. Surprised it's not 3:1 tbh and it might be
Well, since it "sounds right to you"....
Not sure why I debate these things anymore. I am the real idiot here.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
@vanzack That's all the major ones combined online. I understand it might be a little off. But 2:1 sounds right right to me from the chatter I hear and see. Surprised it's not 3:1 tbh and it might be
Well, since it "sounds right to you"....
Not sure why I debate these things anymore. I am the real idiot here.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.