simulations ??......lol....sorry it doesn't work like that. A line is determined by a group of line makers (about 6 to 8 guys, sometimes more, sometimes less) they discuss what would be the best opening number on, for example, an NFL game. After deliberation(taking everything into consideration like teaser exposure, sharp action, joe public perception etc.), they decide on an opening number and release it. The market will immediately pounce on one side or the other if the line is perceived to be "off".....thus the books have to adjust immediately to even out the action. If the opening line is deemed sharp , it generates good two way action from the get go and little or no movement of the line is needed. Again....ONLY money will move a line. OR, an injury to a player deemed worthy of points ATS. Books don't adjust lines just to fuck with the public, as so many conspirators think here on Covers. It just doesn't happen.
You mean books dont know the result before it happens and trap people in to betting the wrong side?
You mean that books love collecting 10% from both sides if they evenly match at no risk?
You mean that books wouldnt rather expose themselves to unnecessary risk by taking a side?
But I cant win at sports betting, and I think it is because the books have information I do. It cant be me. It has to be those books - because they know who is going to win and I keep falling for their traps. They run millions of simulations, I can only simulate on my PS5. Its not fair. They are bad, I am good. It must be someone elses fault.
I never met a hater better than me. I am on twitter
simulations ??......lol....sorry it doesn't work like that. A line is determined by a group of line makers (about 6 to 8 guys, sometimes more, sometimes less) they discuss what would be the best opening number on, for example, an NFL game. After deliberation(taking everything into consideration like teaser exposure, sharp action, joe public perception etc.), they decide on an opening number and release it. The market will immediately pounce on one side or the other if the line is perceived to be "off".....thus the books have to adjust immediately to even out the action. If the opening line is deemed sharp , it generates good two way action from the get go and little or no movement of the line is needed. Again....ONLY money will move a line. OR, an injury to a player deemed worthy of points ATS. Books don't adjust lines just to fuck with the public, as so many conspirators think here on Covers. It just doesn't happen.
You mean books dont know the result before it happens and trap people in to betting the wrong side?
You mean that books love collecting 10% from both sides if they evenly match at no risk?
You mean that books wouldnt rather expose themselves to unnecessary risk by taking a side?
But I cant win at sports betting, and I think it is because the books have information I do. It cant be me. It has to be those books - because they know who is going to win and I keep falling for their traps. They run millions of simulations, I can only simulate on my PS5. Its not fair. They are bad, I am good. It must be someone elses fault.
You guys need to take a little something from someone who both moves lines and knows bookmakers. Me.
I move lines all the time. I know what it takes to move a line. I know before I bet if the line will move or not. I know why the line wont move sometimes - and other times it will.
And it has nothing to do with what you birdbrains think it does.
It is simple risk management. Books have a very simple operating mantra: Get the highest possible take, while maintaining as close to even action, while reducing risk as much as possible.
Thats it. No tea leaves, simulations, crystal balls, traps, wrong way line moves, betting percentages - none of it. Just maximize take while minimizing risk.
I never met a hater better than me. I am on twitter
You guys need to take a little something from someone who both moves lines and knows bookmakers. Me.
I move lines all the time. I know what it takes to move a line. I know before I bet if the line will move or not. I know why the line wont move sometimes - and other times it will.
And it has nothing to do with what you birdbrains think it does.
It is simple risk management. Books have a very simple operating mantra: Get the highest possible take, while maintaining as close to even action, while reducing risk as much as possible.
Thats it. No tea leaves, simulations, crystal balls, traps, wrong way line moves, betting percentages - none of it. Just maximize take while minimizing risk.
Van, you forgot to add - smaller books with lopsided action will often rebalance by moving some of their exposure to bigger books with deeper pockets. I have a local with 150 clients. He gets lopsided action all the time, particularly with local teams. To mitigate risk, he moves some of his exposure to the big boys. Every now and then, he’s forced to take a small position. But his goal is always 50/50 action.
Van, you forgot to add - smaller books with lopsided action will often rebalance by moving some of their exposure to bigger books with deeper pockets. I have a local with 150 clients. He gets lopsided action all the time, particularly with local teams. To mitigate risk, he moves some of his exposure to the big boys. Every now and then, he’s forced to take a small position. But his goal is always 50/50 action.
You guys need to take a little something from someone who both moves lines and knows bookmakers. Me. I move lines all the time. I know what it takes to move a line. I know before I bet if the line will move or not. I know why the line wont move sometimes - and other times it will. And it has nothing to do with what you birdbrains think it does. It is simple risk management. Books have a very simple operating mantra: Get the highest possible take, while maintaining as close to even action, while reducing risk as much as possible. Thats it. No tea leaves, simulations, crystal balls, traps, wrong way line moves, betting percentages - none of it. Just maximize take while minimizing risk.
You guys need to take a little something from someone who both moves lines and knows bookmakers. Me. I move lines all the time. I know what it takes to move a line. I know before I bet if the line will move or not. I know why the line wont move sometimes - and other times it will. And it has nothing to do with what you birdbrains think it does. It is simple risk management. Books have a very simple operating mantra: Get the highest possible take, while maintaining as close to even action, while reducing risk as much as possible. Thats it. No tea leaves, simulations, crystal balls, traps, wrong way line moves, betting percentages - none of it. Just maximize take while minimizing risk.
simulations ??......lol....sorry it doesn't work like that. A line is determined by a group of line makers (about 6 to 8 guys, sometimes more, sometimes less) they discuss what would be the best opening number on, for example, an NFL game. After deliberation(taking everything into consideration like teaser exposure, sharp action, joe public perception etc.), they decide on an opening number and release it. The market will immediately pounce on one side or the other if the line is perceived to be "off".....thus the books have to adjust immediately to even out the action. If the opening line is deemed sharp , it generates good two way action from the get go and little or no movement of the line is needed. Again....ONLY money will move a line. OR, an injury to a player deemed worthy of points ATS. Books don't adjust lines just to fuck with the public, as so many conspirators think here on Covers. It just doesn't happen.
Yes, it does.
6-8 guys dont make 500 lines on a game.
Algos and simulations do.
You think that these 6-8 guys determine how many assistant tackles bosa will get?
and those 6-8 guys WANT more and more technology, to get better numbers.
simulations ??......lol....sorry it doesn't work like that. A line is determined by a group of line makers (about 6 to 8 guys, sometimes more, sometimes less) they discuss what would be the best opening number on, for example, an NFL game. After deliberation(taking everything into consideration like teaser exposure, sharp action, joe public perception etc.), they decide on an opening number and release it. The market will immediately pounce on one side or the other if the line is perceived to be "off".....thus the books have to adjust immediately to even out the action. If the opening line is deemed sharp , it generates good two way action from the get go and little or no movement of the line is needed. Again....ONLY money will move a line. OR, an injury to a player deemed worthy of points ATS. Books don't adjust lines just to fuck with the public, as so many conspirators think here on Covers. It just doesn't happen.
Yes, it does.
6-8 guys dont make 500 lines on a game.
Algos and simulations do.
You think that these 6-8 guys determine how many assistant tackles bosa will get?
and those 6-8 guys WANT more and more technology, to get better numbers.
You're jumping from one aspect to another, and another.
Here's a question that will prove you don't fully understand the whole line making process.
*********Read carefully and use your intelligence *********
Do you think the books have special AI software that can watch a game on a TV screen and derive decisions off of what it just observed in real time?????
Lol
A HUMAN BEING IS WATCHING THE GAME AND MAKING INITIAL DECISIONS
You're jumping from one aspect to another, and another.
Here's a question that will prove you don't fully understand the whole line making process.
*********Read carefully and use your intelligence *********
Do you think the books have special AI software that can watch a game on a TV screen and derive decisions off of what it just observed in real time?????
Lol
A HUMAN BEING IS WATCHING THE GAME AND MAKING INITIAL DECISIONS
A- Vegas separates initial lines from live betting lines? That these functions aren't related, and integrated?
B- You believe that Vegas has 1000 employees watching each and ever game to update live betting?
You do realize that The major houses have live betting on hundreds of events going on at same time?
To answer your question, Vegas gets feeds from the game, data, and updates their lines from data feeds. No Need to "watch" games. its gets data and analyzes it instantly.
Under your scenario, someone is watching the game, and updates the live lines instantly? Live lines change about every second. who types that fast? do they eat or drink or breathe as they "watch" the game and updates 500 separate lines?
and Vegas, the king of technology uses, wouldn't want to automate this process?
A- Vegas separates initial lines from live betting lines? That these functions aren't related, and integrated?
B- You believe that Vegas has 1000 employees watching each and ever game to update live betting?
You do realize that The major houses have live betting on hundreds of events going on at same time?
To answer your question, Vegas gets feeds from the game, data, and updates their lines from data feeds. No Need to "watch" games. its gets data and analyzes it instantly.
Under your scenario, someone is watching the game, and updates the live lines instantly? Live lines change about every second. who types that fast? do they eat or drink or breathe as they "watch" the game and updates 500 separate lines?
and Vegas, the king of technology uses, wouldn't want to automate this process?
Quote Originally Posted by OSU12345: @vanzack That's all the major ones combined online. I understand it might be a little off. But 2:1 sounds right right to me from the chatter I hear and see. Surprised it's not 3:1 tbh and it might be Well, since it "sounds right to you".... Not sure why I debate these things anymore. I am the real idiot here.
Did the line move to KC -4 yet to get all this one sided money to even out?
Quote Originally Posted by OSU12345: @vanzack That's all the major ones combined online. I understand it might be a little off. But 2:1 sounds right right to me from the chatter I hear and see. Surprised it's not 3:1 tbh and it might be Well, since it "sounds right to you".... Not sure why I debate these things anymore. I am the real idiot here.
Did the line move to KC -4 yet to get all this one sided money to even out?
You're actually proving your own ignorance with your statements.
If something develops(like a fumble) in a live event, the live betting immediately closes. It then reopens with a new line. A HUMAN is at the helm of this process.
I'm actually not going to discuss this anymore with you because it's obvious you're very misguided in the whole betting realm.
You're actually proving your own ignorance with your statements.
If something develops(like a fumble) in a live event, the live betting immediately closes. It then reopens with a new line. A HUMAN is at the helm of this process.
I'm actually not going to discuss this anymore with you because it's obvious you're very misguided in the whole betting realm.
It is not a human. It is an algorithm. Humans may click/confirm the buttons but yeah lol they do not make them on the fly during this 10-15 second pause
It is not a human. It is an algorithm. Humans may click/confirm the buttons but yeah lol they do not make them on the fly during this 10-15 second pause
For better or worse, fair or not, win or lose... It's why the live lines are often goofy on like college football bowl games. The alg can have problems with so many changes such as sitting a star player after 1st the quarter, a drastic QB change, etc
For better or worse, fair or not, win or lose... It's why the live lines are often goofy on like college football bowl games. The alg can have problems with so many changes such as sitting a star player after 1st the quarter, a drastic QB change, etc
That'd be hilarious a human making a huge mistake on the live line like forgetting it's Wilson and not Rodgers or something. Nowadays you can live bet Texas AT&T Tech State vs Cal Institute of Sacramento. There is no #sharp human sidelines tossin out lines. Their insurance is that it's always a higher juice on live lines and that they never have to worry about pushes/giving money back juice free since they make everything a half point. And they're smart obv. It's a business. They'd quickly learn from any mistake and I'm sure they have already. They're obv gonna survive either way lol but yea.
That'd be hilarious a human making a huge mistake on the live line like forgetting it's Wilson and not Rodgers or something. Nowadays you can live bet Texas AT&T Tech State vs Cal Institute of Sacramento. There is no #sharp human sidelines tossin out lines. Their insurance is that it's always a higher juice on live lines and that they never have to worry about pushes/giving money back juice free since they make everything a half point. And they're smart obv. It's a business. They'd quickly learn from any mistake and I'm sure they have already. They're obv gonna survive either way lol but yea.
I'm going to guess you're a teenager or early 20's.
You think you know how it's done but in reality you don't know jack.
In live betting, when a change occurs, all live betting associated to that change will instantly close. A HUMAN BEING enters very limited DATA SUCH AS THE SCORE, TIME LEFT, WHAT QUATER INTO A COMPUTER(takes only seconds).........THE COMPUTER WILL GENERATE A REAL TIME LINE(FROM ALGORITHMS ESTABLISHED FROM HUMAN BEINGS WHO PREVIOUSLY ANALYED THE SAME SCENERIO IN THE PAST) This takes about 15 20 or 30 seconds, sometimes longer.
Nothing happens without a human instigating it.
A computer program updates everything and the new live betting line is up. Takes 15 seconds usually.
You've probably been under the impression there's a hundred guys feverishly typing all that info on a keyboard everytime live betting is updated......lol
I'm going to guess you're a teenager or early 20's.
You think you know how it's done but in reality you don't know jack.
In live betting, when a change occurs, all live betting associated to that change will instantly close. A HUMAN BEING enters very limited DATA SUCH AS THE SCORE, TIME LEFT, WHAT QUATER INTO A COMPUTER(takes only seconds).........THE COMPUTER WILL GENERATE A REAL TIME LINE(FROM ALGORITHMS ESTABLISHED FROM HUMAN BEINGS WHO PREVIOUSLY ANALYED THE SAME SCENERIO IN THE PAST) This takes about 15 20 or 30 seconds, sometimes longer.
Nothing happens without a human instigating it.
A computer program updates everything and the new live betting line is up. Takes 15 seconds usually.
You've probably been under the impression there's a hundred guys feverishly typing all that info on a keyboard everytime live betting is updated......lol
I just think it’s funny people think to set NFL lines…..it’s some kind of rocket science. Even college is elementary stuff.
Anyone who has been betting/watching football with half a brain can look at a NFL card on Monday morning and set the lines pretty much on the dot to the real lines.
If that’s “ Vegas magic” to u…..find something else to do with your money.
I just think it’s funny people think to set NFL lines…..it’s some kind of rocket science. Even college is elementary stuff.
Anyone who has been betting/watching football with half a brain can look at a NFL card on Monday morning and set the lines pretty much on the dot to the real lines.
If that’s “ Vegas magic” to u…..find something else to do with your money.
lastly, live betting does not close when nothing drastic happens. For example when the score is constantly changing, like in a basketball game. There are computer programs that follow the fluctuating score and adjust the line in real time.
lastly, live betting does not close when nothing drastic happens. For example when the score is constantly changing, like in a basketball game. There are computer programs that follow the fluctuating score and adjust the line in real time.
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