Why handicappers have such a rough time breaking fifty percent.

Sport’s handicapping attracts lazy people.  Fact is, if you are reading this right now; 85% chance is that you are a lazy handicapper.  In fact, the vast majority of sports bettors would not qualify for the title of ‘Sports Handicapper’.  Look at how the average ‘Joe Blow’ handicaps a game.  He probably does not even have Direct TV’s NFL package, or any means to watch multiple games.  He watches the two early games, one late game, the Sunday night game, the Monday Night Football game, an hour of ESPN, and maybe an hour of NFL This Week.  That is what just about everybody—Squares— who bets on sports gets their information.   The lines are then set for those exact people that possess that exact information; they are the vast majority of people who will bet the upcoming weeks games—the Squares.  If everybody is using the same information to base their play decisions, the lines will eventually (sooner rather than later) move to exactly where the average sports bettor thinks the game will end up.   The ‘feel’ bettor is hilarious to a real handicapper.  The ‘feel’ bettor does not realize that the worst thing that can happen to him is to get his ‘feeling’ and have it just happen to come out correctly on the field; then he is fucked, because he now found “the formula” for success and will keep trying to get the ‘feel’ back.  Don’t get me wrong, real handicapper’s ‘feel’ is when he has pounded details, news, simulations, injury reports, locker room zeitgeist, and everything he could for a half a season; his ‘feeling’ is his subconscious proding him with information too vast for conscience recall.  The ONLY way to gain an edge is to work your ass off digging for every tid-bit of non-mainstream news that you can, dig into detailed stats (and not just Offensive rankings/yards, defensive rankings/yards, quarterback ratings, ect.  Be lazy and cap at fifty percent, pay someone who will dig the details up for you (a service), or plan on spending a few hours—or much more—digging into each game you play; you have no other options.

Few handicappers realize that they themselves are the ‘Square’.  Regardless of what you read, look up, or are told; a Square is ‘Joe Public’ who bases his plays on basic, easy to find, common mainstream sport’s new/information.  A Sharp is someone who gets non-traditional, more detailed, deeper information to base his plays on.  A Square can be someone who plays 5K a play but uses basic information, and a Sharp can be someone playing $100 a play but uses non-traditional/detailed information to base his plays.  Funny, I can look up the definition and more often than now a Sharp is a Sharp simply by the amount he wagers on a game—this is bullshit, plain and simple.  So many sport’s bettors refer to the ‘Squares’ as some secret society that they themselves have nothing to do with.  The reality is that everyone knows an asshole, but no one ever thinks they are an asshole.  Sport’s bettors who rely  on  basic mainstream information to base their play opinions are the Squares.   I see it all the time here in Vegas; most guys walk into the Book, grab a list of the day’s games, flip it over—which has a snap shot of a Covers game stat sheet—read the stats as they are slowly walking towards the ticket window.  Do you have any clue how much the Book’s appreciate these guys?  It is the Books ‘bread and butter’  They are the Squares.

              Sport’s entertainment is what really moves the lines.  That is scary, and it is really scary.  I will use Thanksgiving’s day NFL for an example.  ESPN does not care if you get good, or real information.  ESPN wants to focus on one goal alone…promote information and stories that will keep the most people tuned in—period.  Thanksgiving day had the Sibling Rivalry, and it made for a great promo.  ESPN put Frank Gore’s great year, San Fran’s domination thus far, San Fran’s great smash mouth football, ect.  In reality the game was a mismatch given the circumstances.  I had this game capped in detail, and I am going from memory—sue me if I am off a tad.  ESPN knew the 49er’s were going to be kicking off in Baltimore just 96 hours after ending their game against Arizona, they knew that San Fran would be basically losing 1 day of practice due to the travel—making it a super short week, they knew that Frank Gore gets a full day of treatment for his knees (sometime two), they knew Frank Gore averaged just over 2 yards per carry vs top ranked defenses, they knew San Fran benefited from a weak schedule to get their 9-1 record, and they knew the game was a mismatch—that does not excite anyone, and it does not keep people from changing the channel.  So the betting public absorbs this information, and the line is soft and vunerable.  Why would the linemakers not have the line at Ravens -9?  Everybody would have jumped on SF leaving the Books vulnerable to a big loss, but -3.5 would give the books uneven action heavy in their favor, and they made a killing with about 61% of the ESPN watching Squares losing their money… and the books knew it was coming.  A real handicapper uses mainstream media for no other reason than to get a guage on what the Squares are thinking and to get an edge on good spots in upcoming games.

You can increase your capping percentage, but it is a “hard way to make an easy living”  I once read a quote from a professional poker player who said ‘it’s a hard way to make an easy living’ and that describes professional sport’s handicapping.  If you are happy with going on hot streaks of 70% and cold streaks of 25%, and evening out to the eventual 45 to 50% , then do what the Squares do and have fun.  But if you want to truly average up in the high 50’s to low 60’s—don’t let anyone BS you, no one has a long term average in the 70’s if they do, look for their direct line to God, or their crystal ball—you will have to work your ass off and dig for information you are not even sure exists until you find it. 

NOTE:  I just typed this free hand, it is 2:37 am PST, it’s been a long and hard weekend; if I have typos ect and it bothers you… no offense but fuck you…lol….seriously, I am exhausted…..peace

Nice post KS. You hit it right on.Direct and to the point.Enjoyed reading it.