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Why handicappers have such a rough time breaking fifty percent.

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by KScapping:

 most people start betting sports b/c they feel it will be easy money... they feel that they love sports, watching sports, and know sports well, so they are a 'perfect fit'.... but then their money starts to drain ect..... Capping is exhausting work if done successfully... hope that answers your question   BoL 



If you invest time developing a system, you don't have to spend a lot of time capping games each week.    Figure out a winning angle that makes sense to you.   It could be anything....for example, you could compare the weight of each team's starting offensive linemen.   When one team's line outweighs the other by 50+ lbs, then play the heavier team.   Whatever.   The point is, be creative when figuring out an angle.   

I use a modified points per yard system, and it works well.     It takes me 15 minutes to cap all the games each week.   But I spend hours reading about the teams, just for fun.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Niners13:

You will never hit 60% + in the nfl long term.




I hit 60% or better every year in the NFL with my system, picking all games.   The only problem with my system is that it only works until week 10.  I still need to figure out a system for weeks 11-17.

Through week 10 this year, I was 85-52    ( 62% ) 

If I can do it, anyone can.   Just take the time to figure out a winning angle, and stick to it.
 
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Posted: #28
I find it hilarious that a capper who went on a four day gambling bender (my goal is to quadruple my money or whatever the fuck you were going for) but REFUSES to count those games in their overall record is giving ANY lessons to the rest of us.  Look, it's clear you are a decent capper - and your write ups include a lot of relevant info.  That said, I can't take anyone seriously who makes actual bets - but doesn't count them in their record because "it was just a four day game".  Gambling isn't a game.  So until you take your own advice - you're no better than the rest of the lemmings...


 
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Posted: #29
Nice read man.  Didn't read the whole thing as I was watching espn to game plan for my next play.
 
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Posted: #30
This was probably true about 20 years ago, but now all you need to do is call your buddy and see who he's picking, then go on covers and read the first 20 posts.  If they have similar picks, fade and count your money to the bank.

This is a system I developed that's hitting about 60% and only takes an hour of research
 
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Posted: #31
I see alot of guys 60-70% NCAA basketball. I believe it's much easier as their are many more games and more angles. Do you agree?
 
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Posted: #32
Please post ur pick tonight thnx!
 
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Posted: #33
This guy hits 2 or 3 winners in a row and all of a sudden he is the Albert Pujols of handicapping. 

Stop lecturing and start winning, walk the walk dont talk it. 
 
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Posted: #34
Let me summarize this for you: Most people don't have a problem picking winners. The real difference between a sharp and a square is disciplined money management, shopping for the best lines, and not chasing. Gamble with these three things in mind and you can win (long term) too.
 
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Posted: #35
like how he points out san fran @ baltimore but leaves out green bay destroying the lions, patriots destroying the eagles, new orleans destroying the lions.. and more 'square' easy wins...
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by rs12321:


Next time you have all this sharp information, make sure to post before the game. Thanks!

I did 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit:




If you invest time developing a system, you don't have to spend a lot of time capping games each week.    Figure out a winning angle that makes sense to you.   It could be anything....for example, you could compare the weight of each team's starting offensive linemen.   When one team's line outweighs the other by 50+ lbs, then play the heavier team.   Whatever.   The point is, be creative when figuring out an angle.   

I use a modified points per yard system, and it works well.     It takes me 15 minutes to cap all the games each week.   But I spend hours reading about the teams, just for fun.

Systems?  "bet the dogs on tuesdays nights a day after it rains'... go with public @ 55%" , "go against this/that, ect".. you get lucky and it happens to win for a half or even a whole system and then you do it the next season and it loses....there is NO replacing hard work if you plan to beat em long term...
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Area51:

Nice input. You are right on with informed (sharp) vs uninformed ( square) betters methods of capping. Keep up the good work and good luck.
thanks bro 
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by rangershomer:

Well written for 2 AM. By your definition I'm a square, yet I've had only one losing year betting sports out of the last 20. I don't count the first five years when I was paying for an edjucation in the endevor. In my experience stats are a good foundation, but 'spot' in the schedule and a teams mentality are more important. Particularly in football. The square better is the only reason there is any advantage. 'Somebody bet on the bay.'

use what works.... peace 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

Excellent read..enjoyed it.


Keep digging that info!

RT2
 BoL 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Niners13:

You will never hit 60% + in the nfl long term.


been doing it for years and years... and I have a few friends (more than one) that surpass my results .... "Perception is Reality" 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by NORCALPLAYA:

Too long to read, as I am one of those "lazy" gamblers... 
Who ya got for MNF
 LOL.. at the VERY least.. you are honest... GL 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by apec:

KScapping  Question for you since, from your description, I am a square.  Where do you get this inside information? 
Google...seriously.... I usually start out google'ing something like 'Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Preview" ... you will find a few previews, and a few little 'hooks' that will lead to questions you will come up with...then Google search for that.. and on and on... litterally the informational links/questions will connect longer than any of us would ever need.... BoL 2 U 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by dave76801:

Good read , made me realize i'm just another lazy gambler 
 self realization is the single most important portion of self improvement... your choice in your up coming direction....BoL either way...
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by _keyser_soze_:

I find it hilarious that a capper who went on a four day gambling bender (my goal is to quadruple my money or whatever the fuck you were going for) but REFUSES to count those games in their overall record is giving ANY lessons to the rest of us.  Look, it's clear you are a decent capper - and your write ups include a lot of relevant info.  That said, I can't take anyone seriously who makes actual bets - but doesn't count them in their record because "it was just a four day game".  Gambling isn't a game.  So until you take your own advice - you're no better than the rest of the lemmings...


 
'Bearing false witness' is obviously not outside your moral guidlines lol.... go to my profile, go to blog, and EVERY single forum posted play is on there...meticulously listed recorded / counted every single play including the 4 day/41%..... Haters will do anything to Hate lol..... hope life improves for you so as does your attitude brutha..peace 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Ramathorn02:

Nice read man.  Didn't read the whole thing as I was watching espn to game plan for my next play.
LMFAO! 
 
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Posted: #47
kscapping what are you think about tonite? 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by nflpicker14:

This was probably true about 20 years ago, but now all you need to do is call your buddy and see who he's picking, then go on covers and read the first 20 posts.  If they have similar picks, fade and count your money to the bank.

This is a system I developed that's hitting about 60% and only takes an hour of research
 in all seriousness, that will DEFINITELY get you over the 50% hump... but like all 'systems' (blind plays based on criteria) it will only get you but so far........ GL 2 U! 
 
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Posted: #49
Good read all you said is true. If you put all that work and effort in any kind of business you will become successful .Thats why we have leaders and followers in this world.The problem is most people are conditioned to follow and work for a boss.Its all about thought innovation,hard work and persistence that makes one become a leader and master of his own destiny.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

This guy hits 2 or 3 winners in a row and all of a sudden he is the Albert Pujols of handicapping. 

Stop lecturing and start winning, walk the walk dont talk it. 

READ THIS POSTED REPLY ABOVE...if you don't want to put in the required work, the absolute best 'SYSTEM" you could use is find someone with a hate spewing demeanor like Swish" and fade every opinion...their attitude is hateful because they are losing all of their money....they naturally find losing plays w/ unexplainable accuracy....not hating, just calling it real   GL 
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