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Why handicappers have such a rough time breaking fifty percent.

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Platinummoor

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4

Posted: Dec. 7, 2011 - 9:23 PM ET #201

Hey Detroit84:

I agree with your views about betting on baseball. I take the same approach handicapping hockey as well.

BOL everyone.

Gr8 thread.

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KScapping

Veteran

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 3207

Posted: Dec. 7, 2011 - 9:28 PM ET #202

Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84:

I've been betting on all sports on and off for the last 12 years. I've really been focused on baseball for the last 4 years and also get into betting on small conference/non high profile games in college basketball. I havnt wagered this year in college ball as I have been focused on football for the first time in a couple years. I am far from the greatest capper in the world, but when I get focused on a sport I do my homework and sometimes I do more than I would like.

Baseball is my sport and I would say of any sport, this is the one I would consider myself as semi-pro (since I have to run my business, I only have so much time, otherwise I would be pro status). And boy do I research and I mean a lot of research. When I get a lean or a beat on a game or series, I dive in and do a lot of work. Really, if you want to be successful in baseball or anything for that matter, you have to. There are a ton of statistical and trend factors in baseball. I do a lot of bullpen research, starting pitcher trends, batter vs pitcher stats, home plate umps, long road trip trends, etc, etc....

My whole point to this is....

Through my experience football can only be handicapped so much. There are too many variables (as stated by myself and others in this thread), that you cant account for. Referees, bogus penalties, horrible play calling, OL not blocking, etc....YOU CANT RESEARCH THAT! You cant possibly be doing anything that extravagant in researching football. It's a very tough sport to bet on because there is so much unpredictability!

I mean my wife......this is a true story....went 11-0 before the 4:00 games last week and ended 14-2 for the week in our 70 person pool! And yes it's an ATS pool. I mean, what? 14-2?? Thats absurd! You may say well, you need to know what you're doing to have consistency throughout the season, but she doesnt know that much and is 107-85 (55.73%) on the year. This is my wife against the spread! Granted, she is not putting money up, but even if she was she would be turning a profit and she only watches games every know and again.

So you can say what you want about "capping" football, but I dont think there is that much capping involved. It's reading into public perception of teams, momentum of teams, some trends and stats and after that, hope the referees dont fuck it up!

Betting football is not that big of a deal. If you want to be a real handicapper....try baseball. Thats a true handicapping sport. SPORTSBOOKS ARE IN BUSINESS BECAUSE OF FOOTBALL Too many people bet for action to make the games "more fun" and they're mostly all losers. Football is too much of a sprint! Baseball is a treated like a business to most that wager.....it's a marathon.

Put that in your pipe, when you start thinking your so great.

well thought out and articulated view Sir... but personally, I would disagree with the about (purple) statement, as there are a fair amount of people making money on football. I would, personally (once more), say books would go out of business (or be hurt badly) if not for heavy + lines and parlays. GL 2 U

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Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84:

I've been betting on all sports on and off for the last 12 years. I've really been focused on baseball for the last 4 years and also get into betting on small conference/non high profile games in college basketball. I havnt wagered this year in college ball as I have been focused on football for the first time in a couple years. I am far from the greatest capper in the world, but when I get focused on a sport I do my homework and sometimes I do more than I would like.

Baseball is my sport and I would say of any sport, this is the one I would consider myself as semi-pro (since I have to run my business, I only have so much time, otherwise I would be pro status). And boy do I research and I mean a lot of research. When I get a lean or a beat on a game or series, I dive in and do a lot of work. Really, if you want to be successful in baseball or anything for that matter, you have to. There are a ton of statistical and trend factors in baseball. I do a lot of bullpen research, starting pitcher trends, batter vs pitcher stats, home plate umps, long road trip trends, etc, etc....

My whole point to this is....

Through my experience football can only be handicapped so much. There are too many variables (as stated by myself and others in this thread), that you cant account for. Referees, bogus penalties, horrible play calling, OL not blocking, etc....YOU CANT RESEARCH THAT! You cant possibly be doing anything that extravagant in researching football. It's a very tough sport to bet on because there is so much unpredictability!

I mean my wife......this is a true story....went 11-0 before the 4:00 games last week and ended 14-2 for the week in our 70 person pool! And yes it's an ATS pool. I mean, what? 14-2?? Thats absurd! You may say well, you need to know what you're doing to have consistency throughout the season, but she doesnt know that much and is 107-85 (55.73%) on the year. This is my wife against the spread! Granted, she is not putting money up, but even if she was she would be turning a profit and she only watches games every know and again.

So you can say what you want about "capping" football, but I dont think there is that much capping involved. It's reading into public perception of teams, momentum of teams, some trends and stats and after that, hope the referees dont fuck it up!

Betting football is not that big of a deal. If you want to be a real handicapper....try baseball. Thats a true handicapping sport. SPORTSBOOKS ARE IN BUSINESS BECAUSE OF FOOTBALL Too many people bet for action to make the games "more fun" and they're mostly all losers. Football is too much of a sprint! Baseball is a treated like a business to most that wager.....it's a marathon.

Put that in your pipe, when you start thinking your so great.

well thought out and articulated view Sir... but personally, I would disagree with the about (purple) statement, as there are a fair amount of people making money on football. I would, personally (once more), say books would go out of business (or be hurt badly) if not for heavy + lines and parlays. GL 2 U

Addicted4Gamble

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 474

Posted: Dec. 7, 2011 - 9:50 PM ET #203

Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84:

I've been betting on all sports on and off for the last 12 years. I've really been focused on baseball for the last 4 years and also get into betting on small conference/non high profile games in college basketball. I havnt wagered this year in college ball as I have been focused on football for the first time in a couple years. I am far from the greatest capper in the world, but when I get focused on a sport I do my homework and sometimes I do more than I would like.

Baseball is my sport and I would say of any sport, this is the one I would consider myself as semi-pro (since I have to run my business, I only have so much time, otherwise I would be pro status). And boy do I research and I mean a lot of research. When I get a lean or a beat on a game or series, I dive in and do a lot of work. Really, if you want to be successful in baseball or anything for that matter, you have to. There are a ton of statistical and trend factors in baseball. I do a lot of bullpen research, starting pitcher trends, batter vs pitcher stats, home plate umps, long road trip trends, etc, etc....

My whole point to this is....

Through my experience football can only be handicapped so much. There are too many variables (as stated by myself and others in this thread), that you cant account for. Referees, bogus penalties, horrible play calling, OL not blocking, etc....YOU CANT RESEARCH THAT! You cant possibly be doing anything that extravagant in researching football. It's a very tough sport to bet on because there is so much unpredictability!

I mean my wife......this is a true story....went 11-0 before the 4:00 games last week and ended 14-2 for the week in our 70 person pool! And yes it's an ATS pool. I mean, what? 14-2?? Thats absurd! You may say well, you need to know what you're doing to have consistency throughout the season, but she doesnt know that much and is 107-85 (55.73%) on the year. This is my wife against the spread! Granted, she is not putting money up, but even if she was she would be turning a profit and she only watches games every know and again.

So you can say what you want about "capping" football, but I dont think there is that much capping involved. It's reading into public perception of teams, momentum of teams, some trends and stats and after that, hope the referees dont fuck it up!

Betting football is not that big of a deal. If you want to be a real handicapper....try baseball. Thats a true handicapping sport. SPORTSBOOKS ARE IN BUSINESS BECAUSE OF FOOTBALL Too many people bet for action to make the games "more fun" and they're mostly all losers. Football is too much of a sprint! Baseball is a treated like a business to most that wager.....it's a marathon.

Put that in your pipe, when you start thinking your so great.

BASEBALL IS GAY! ONCE YOU LOSE ON A MONEY LINE BET, ITS ALMOST LIKE YOU WOULD LIKELY TO PICK THE UNDERDOGS TO WIN TO MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE. DUMB AS SPORT TO BET ON. NFL IS WHERE THE PROFIT IS. SHORT TERM INVESTMENT, GREAT RETURN. JUST HAVE TO BE GOOD LIKE ME THEN YOU WOULD WIN. CHECK MY SPACE AND AUDIT MY PLAYS. IM THE BEST!

0

Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84:

I've been betting on all sports on and off for the last 12 years. I've really been focused on baseball for the last 4 years and also get into betting on small conference/non high profile games in college basketball. I havnt wagered this year in college ball as I have been focused on football for the first time in a couple years. I am far from the greatest capper in the world, but when I get focused on a sport I do my homework and sometimes I do more than I would like.

Baseball is my sport and I would say of any sport, this is the one I would consider myself as semi-pro (since I have to run my business, I only have so much time, otherwise I would be pro status). And boy do I research and I mean a lot of research. When I get a lean or a beat on a game or series, I dive in and do a lot of work. Really, if you want to be successful in baseball or anything for that matter, you have to. There are a ton of statistical and trend factors in baseball. I do a lot of bullpen research, starting pitcher trends, batter vs pitcher stats, home plate umps, long road trip trends, etc, etc....

My whole point to this is....

Through my experience football can only be handicapped so much. There are too many variables (as stated by myself and others in this thread), that you cant account for. Referees, bogus penalties, horrible play calling, OL not blocking, etc....YOU CANT RESEARCH THAT! You cant possibly be doing anything that extravagant in researching football. It's a very tough sport to bet on because there is so much unpredictability!

I mean my wife......this is a true story....went 11-0 before the 4:00 games last week and ended 14-2 for the week in our 70 person pool! And yes it's an ATS pool. I mean, what? 14-2?? Thats absurd! You may say well, you need to know what you're doing to have consistency throughout the season, but she doesnt know that much and is 107-85 (55.73%) on the year. This is my wife against the spread! Granted, she is not putting money up, but even if she was she would be turning a profit and she only watches games every know and again.

So you can say what you want about "capping" football, but I dont think there is that much capping involved. It's reading into public perception of teams, momentum of teams, some trends and stats and after that, hope the referees dont fuck it up!

Betting football is not that big of a deal. If you want to be a real handicapper....try baseball. Thats a true handicapping sport. SPORTSBOOKS ARE IN BUSINESS BECAUSE OF FOOTBALL Too many people bet for action to make the games "more fun" and they're mostly all losers. Football is too much of a sprint! Baseball is a treated like a business to most that wager.....it's a marathon.

Put that in your pipe, when you start thinking your so great.

BASEBALL IS GAY! ONCE YOU LOSE ON A MONEY LINE BET, ITS ALMOST LIKE YOU WOULD LIKELY TO PICK THE UNDERDOGS TO WIN TO MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE. DUMB AS SPORT TO BET ON. NFL IS WHERE THE PROFIT IS. SHORT TERM INVESTMENT, GREAT RETURN. JUST HAVE TO BE GOOD LIKE ME THEN YOU WOULD WIN. CHECK MY SPACE AND AUDIT MY PLAYS. IM THE BEST!

Todays-Picks

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2008

Posts: 156

Posted: Dec. 7, 2011 - 10:32 PM ET #204

Sir,

If Las Vegas makes it available to you (sports betting), you have no chance to make money long term. I don't care if you are a "sharp", a "dull", a "square", a "rectangle" or whatever you want to label yourself as. Please provide ONE example (with proper documentation) of any person that won 60% of the time with at least 2,000 minimum wagers placed. I don't care if the 2,000 wagers were placed in one day or over a 50 year period.

Thanks.

0

aggieaccountant

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 3490

Posted: Dec. 7, 2011 - 10:42 PM ET #205

Ok, I read your initial post and I do not have Direct TV and I typically watch 2-3 NFL games a week. But, I would definitely not consider myself a lazy square player. My point is that while I understand what you are getting at, you can't automatically throw everyone into a specific bucket just because they don't watch every game. I have found a way to win by looking for spots where it would appear books want you to bet a certain way and then I go the opposite way. Maybe I am lucky, I don't know but I don't think so. At any rate, good luck to you the rest of this season.

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KScapping

Veteran

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 3207

Posted: Dec. 8, 2011 - 3:50 AM ET #206

Quote Originally Posted by Todays-Picks:

Sir,

If Las Vegas makes it available to you (sports betting), you have no chance to make money long term. I don't care if you are a "sharp", a "dull", a "square", a "rectangle" or whatever you want to label yourself as. Please provide ONE example (with proper documentation) of any person that won 60% of the time with at least 2,000 minimum wagers placed. I don't care if the 2,000 wagers were placed in one day or over a 50 year period.

Thanks.

1) I can promise you on all that is sacred (dramatic huh) that you are incorrect. If you were correct I would not be able to send you this reply. My sole income has been from sports betting for coming up on my fifth year, and the majority of my income for many years before that. I know quite a few people that do as well.

2) You obviously do not know Vegas as well as you seem to let on. Vegas could care less if 5% of the book players are 'killing it' as long as they are breaking 85+% of the players... it still equates big profits.

3) documentation? look up Billy Walters segment on 60 minutes.

4) what the hell are you doing on a sports betting site if those are the beliefs you hold? lol....

BoL 2 U

0

KScapping

Veteran

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 3207

Posted: Dec. 8, 2011 - 3:52 AM ET #207

Quote Originally Posted by aggieaccountant:

Ok, I read your initial post and I do not have Direct TV and I typically watch 2-3 NFL games a week. But, I would definitely not consider myself a lazy square player. My point is that while I understand what you are getting at, you can't automatically throw everyone into a specific bucket just because they don't watch every game. I have found a way to win by looking for spots where it would appear books want you to bet a certain way and then I go the opposite way. Maybe I am lucky, I don't know but I don't think so. At any rate, good luck to you the rest of this season.

Fair enough, and agreed. I actually have a friend that does very well and rarely watches any games (total stat/trend players) what my point in saying that was is that the commitment is what many lack. Admittedly, I could have been more detailed in my meaning in that particular segment. BoL 2 U

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Why handicappers have such a rough time breaking fifty percent.

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