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#1
Having grown up watching and rooting for two of the greatest QBs of all time, Joe Montana and Dan Marino, I can say, with some confidence, that Arron Rodgers is the greatest QB I have ever seen. He combines the arm strength, quick release and accuracy of Marino with the touch, scrambling ability, foot-work, poise, intellect, and decision making of Montana, making him the most lethal weapon in all of football. What sets him above Brady in my book, besides the raw talent, is that he is not coached by one of the greatest coaches of all time, so he will never have the playoff credentials of a Brady. Instead, Rodgers has a slightly above-average coach who often manages to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.
Ironically, Rodgers’ greatness has been exemplified more by his losses than his victories, which brings me to my point. In the last few playoffs, Rodgers faced two of the greatest defenses and coaches (Carroll and Harbaugh) of this decade (the Niners and Seahawks), with the same crappy defense he has now, and almost won both games (one in GB and the other in Seattle). Now Rodgers goes up against a vanilla Falcons defense, against a QB in Matty Ice who is as likely to choke as have a great game, in a revenge situation and a possible SB birth, and we are getting 5 points?!
Yeah, I know the public is on the Packers and the line is going the other way, but the NFL and the networks are with the Packers and I like that even more. Nobody outside of Atlanta wants to see the Falcons in the SB, which means the calls should favor GB. Having beaten the Packers in their last matchup is also good at it gives the Falcons a sense of security that is not warranted while making the Pack more eager not to make similar mistakes that cost them that game. Of course, the Packers, with their QB and coach and a few other players, actually have experience winning this game and going to a SB. So an edge there as well. The Falcons, if you think about their win over a Seattle team that was a shell of itself from a few years ago, was not impressive at all. The Falcons were a Hester punt return for a TD away from being in a big hole and/or at the very least a dogfight. And, of course, most people will not recall this, but Matty Ice got very lucky on a couple of plays that normally would have been disasters (i.e., fumbles or picks). So no, I don’t think much of the Falcons or their QB.
The Play: Packers +5
I have a theory about the Patriots. About how they can look so good for most of the season but then lose a home game in the playoffs. As great as the Pats have been, they have also lost some big playoff games at home (and away) against teams they were better than during the regular season. I think the reason for this is that the Pats are always or often the better coached team with the superior QB (hence their regular season success) but not the more talented team. This flaw or deficiency in talent shows up most in the playoffs because now they are playing teams that have good coaching and good to great QBs but with more talent, at other positions, than the Pats. The Pats are a much more successful version of Tom Thibodeau’s Bulls teams that had great regular season success, but could not beat the more talented teams in the playoffs in a best of 7, where talent always wins out. I imagine that if the NFL playoffs were more like the NBA, and the Pats had to beat more talented teams more than once in the playoffs, the great coaching would be offset and talent would win out there as well.
This is not to take anything away from the Pats or their greatness, but just an observation based on years of watching them play and execute so flawlessly against lesser teams but have a lot of difficulty against talented, athletic teams with solid coaching, like the Broncos, the Ravens and the Steelers. If Brady was not on his revenge tour, wanting to get even with the real “author of all his pains” (Roger Goodell), I would take the points and back the Steelers. But as it is, I can’t recommend any play, though the Steelers, with all their talent, speed and athleticism, are just the kind of team that could give NE fits and cause an upset.
Good Luck!
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