Wildcard playoff angles

1)  Away Saturday dogs have gone 15-19 ATS, Sunday away dogs have gone 23-15 ATS.

2)  Teams that won at least 7 games the previous year in the wildcard round have gone 31-20 ATS and 7-13 ATS if they won 6 or less games the previous season.....Rams won 5 games last season, Colts won 4, Texans won 3.

3)  Combining these two angles, a Sunday away dog in the wildcard round has gone 19-7 ATS if they won at least 7 games the previous season.

4)  A wildcard away dog that had the better record the previous season than their present opponent has gone 13-2 ATS.

@Indigo999

Good to see you around! We could trace back to good 'ol Talksports. I really miss it. 

Best of luck in the playoffs!  

5)  On the other hand wildcard home favorites who had the better record last season have gone 29-19 ATS since 2002, 17-7 ATS on Saturday.

Sunday has been a dog day, and Saturday has been a favorite day.

Why the difference, what gives Mate?

I don't know, do you really need to know why?

Teams that are home favorites that missed the playoffs the season before have been 5-19 ATS in the wildcard round.....Lions

Home favorites that won their last 8 home games  have gone 9-16 ATS in the first round of the playoffs.  (Obviously before the 17 game schedule everyone played 8 home games, now half the teams play 9).......Cowboys, assuming they beat the Commanders on Sunday.

HF and tS(W@H, N=8)=8 and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0

Very good stuff.

There used to be years ago this trend, teams not in playoffs for at least 3 now back in playoffs do very well ATS VS a team that was in playoffs within last 3 years.

I9 may be able to compose a query that will confirm that.  I cannot.

@DogbiteWilliams

This should get you started in the right direction....home favorites in the wildcard round have been 6-9 ATS when they haven't been in the playoffs for the past three seasons in this situation, 1-6 ATS in Sunday games....VERSUS Lions

Texans are the other team that haven't made the playoffs the past three seasons, home dogs have been 3-5 ATS in this situation.

tpS(playoffs) = 0 and tppS(playoffs) = 0 and tpppS(playoffs) = 0 and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0

An away dog in the wildcard round that won more than 6 games last season, but missed the playoffs.....

Saturday games......9-10-1 ATS

Sunday games........13-3 ATS.......Packers

A home wildcard team where both they and their present opponent missed the playoffs last season...8-19-2 ATS....VERSUS Texans, Lions

Does it matter who is the hotter team going into the wildcard round?

Again, the history of the wildcard round is that the day the game is played makes all the difference.

A wildcard away dog that won greater or equal games out of the last six games played.

On Saturday......7-13 ATS........VERSUS Dolphins (won 3 of their last 6, as have the Chiefs)

On Sunday........12-4 ATS.......ON.......Packers won 4/6 as did the Cowboys

                                            ON.......Rams who won 5/6, while the Lions won 4/6

The day the  wildcard game has been played hasn't made a difference in the percentage of UNDERs to the total....in both days UNDERs have hit about 60%.

p:playoffs = 0 and playoffs = 1 and AD and tS(W, N=6)-oS(W, N=6)>=0 and day

Wildcard round away favorites.....

  1)  Saturday 2-5-1 ATS......VERSUS Browns

  2)  Sunday/Monday 8-3-1 ATS.....ON Eagles

A team with a negative scoring margin their past 6 games, in the wildcard round....

  1)  Made playoffs last season.......11-6-1 ATS....ON Eagles

  2)  Missed playoffs last season....12-14 ATS......Texans

tA(margin, N=6)<0 and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and tpS(playoffs)

Wonder how teams that played each other earlier in the season fare again in the playoffs. Two such games on Saturday 

Teams that have the average net yards per pass attempt  advantage (offense minus defense ypp difference) have gone 82-55 ATS in the wildcard round.

For whatever reason that advantage has been huge for Saturday games going 45-23 ATS overall and 34-13 ATS (+4.42), 39-9 straight up at home....ON Chiefs

and this pretty much has caused regression on Sunday games going 35-32 ATS, including 18-27-1 ATS at home....VERSUS Bills, Cowboys

playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and day

Teams with the average turnover margin disadvantage in the wildcard round? (they have given the ball away more then they have taken it away compared to their present opponent).

We'll use each team's last six games, as the results are non-consequential using whole season stats.

Saturday games....33-22-3 against the spread....ON Chiefs, Browns

Sunday games......26-38-1 against the spread....VERSUS Steelers, Packers, Rams

playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(TOM, N=6) - oA(TOM, N=6) > 0 and day

However from post #15 directly above, those teams with the average turnover disadvantage on Sunday games, away dogs of less than 9 points have been 12-3 ATS....ON Packers, Rams

Plays:

1)  Packers +7.5

2)  Rams +3.5

3)  Chiefs -3.5

Great info and discussion. The nfl is very unpredictable down the stretch with some of these matchups. Hoping for some good games. GL 

A wildcard away dog of less than 9 points that missed the playoffs last season, versus an opponent that missed the playoffs last season.....

  1)  Saturday 6-5-1 ATS (+0.29), 6-6 straight up (-3.00)

  2)  Sunday 9-1 ATS (+8.85), 6-4 straight up (+4.40).......Rams 

Using killersports, copy and paste query text below into the query text box for confirmation.

playoffs = 1 and AD and day and p:playoffs=0 and line<9 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)=0

If away favorites are included, rather than just away dogs

  3)  7-8-1 ATS on Saturday, 9-8 straight up (-0.16)....Browns

  4)  12-1 ATS, 9-4 straight up (+6.46)  on Sunday.....Rams

Thanks for that.  "ppS" for two seasons back; why the hell couldn't I think of something as simple as that?

Dadgum senior moments.

@DogbiteWilliams

Be careful, once you lose your mind it is very hard to find.....lol....

Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info