Wildcard playoff angles

Excellent start fellas… appreciate yo efforts….  

Yes, I didn't phrase that  well.....in the wildcard round, home favorites that won their last 8 home games have gone 2-3 ATS, with divisional round home favorites going 7-13 ATS.....obviously a team that won 8 home games usually qualified for a bye when the top two teams used to qualify for a week off from the first round (wildcard round) of the playoffs.

If that game was played on a Sunday, in the wildcard round they went 0-2 ATS, 0-2 straight up, losing both times by an average 18 points.  In the divisional round those teams went 4-7 ATS on Sunday.

Non-Saturday away favorites in the wildcard round have gone 8-3-1 ATS, including 4-0 ATS if they won four or less games out of their last 6 games, winning by scores of 31-17, 26-14, 17-9 and 31-14.....Eagles

Plays:

Adding.....

6)  ** Eagles -2.5

5)  ** Eagles/Bucs UNDER 43

__________________________

1)  ** Texans +2..........................W

2)  ** Texans/Browns OVER 45......W

3)  ** Chiefs -3.5.........................W

4) ***Rams +3.5

5) **  Packers +7.5

and another play.....

8) **Lions/Rams OVER 52

7) **Eagles -2.5

6) **Eagles/Bucs UNDER 43

5) **Packers +7.5

4) ***Rams +3.5

3) **Chiefs -3.5..............W

2) **Texans +2...............W

1) ** Texans OVER 45......W

@Indigo999

If one can't pick yourself, your other choices besides not betting is first to set ego aside and acknowledge that, and  then to follow a winner or to fade a loser.

I have a low opinion of most media types picking games.

ESPN puts out picks by a couple of handicappers acknowledging the spread to their credit, whereas CBS Sportsline has six "experts" who though supposedly a gambling column don't pick games against the spread, unless you pay for their gambling picks.  So, if six experts all say Dallas is going to win, they've hedged their bets because they don't actually pick games against the spread.

Here are the games where the two ESPN handicappers pick the same side or total....so far when in agreement they've gone 1-2,.....we would want to consider fading (going the opposite) of their picks.

THESE ARE NOT MY PICKS!....IF I PLAYED THESE I WOULD ONLY CONSIDER FADING WHAT ESPN IS PUTTING OUT.

Both of ESPN PICKERS had:

1)  Texans +

2)  Dolphins +

3)  Dolphins OVER

4)  Cowboys OVER

5)  Lions UNDER

6)  Bills -

7)  Bills OVER

Below are the King of Covers' public picks for the wildcard round....we'll track how the consensus has done out of interest.  

I've not done this on a consistent basis, which I regret not doing....this year I am pretty sure the public did A LOT better than they typically do, compared to previous seasons, as the public typically loves favorites and OVERs.

Public dogs, where a high percentage of the public likes an underdog is a red flag....they usually get massacred.......the Steelers have a high, high percentage of the public on them this week as an away underdog.

So far, the public got it right on the two totals in Saturday's games and got the Browns as a side play very wrong.

Public betting percentages.

Sides

61% Cleveland -

64% Pittsburgh +

52% Kansas City -

54% Philly -

54% Lions -

54% Cowboys -

Totals

60%  Clev/Hous OVER

57%  KC.Mia UNDER

66%  Lions/Rams OVER

62%  Packers/Cowboys OVER

54%  Eagles/Bucs UNDER

53%  Bills/Steelers UNDER

Indigo line for the first  NFC indicated divisional matchup for next week.

Packers  47

49ers -6

Teams off an away win in the wildcard round playing a team off a bye....

Saturday.....10-11 ATS

Sunday........11-5 ATS (+3.69), straight up 6-10 (-2.83), average line/score +6.5, 20.6-23.4

Opening NFC line....

San Fran -9.5  49.5

8) **Lions/Rams OVER 52......L

7) **Eagles -2.5

6) **Eagles/Bucs UNDER 43

5) **Packers +7.5............W

4) ***Rams +3.5.............W

3) **Chiefs -3.5..............W

2) **Texans +2...............W

1) ** Texans OVER 45......W

Thought the Lions/Rams would get OVER for me, but certainly not complaining.

Cooper Kupp, if he is not injured, looks done after having one of the most dominant seasons in NFL history just 2 or 3 years ago.

Lions will host a playoff game next week versus the winner of the Eagles/Bucs game.

Indigo lines

Bucs 42

Lions -7

Eagles 42......Eagles are gonna have to win ugly now if Smith can't play for them and Hurts has both knee and hand injuries.

Lions -6

Just announced that the Lions will play at home on SUNDAY in the divisional round.....and if Buffalo beats Pittsburgh they will also play on Sunday.

Those Sunday away dogs, if I you haven't taken anything else away from this thread, are worth your time and money to consider.

Great week indigo… I went against you on one… Dallas…. And laid off another… Houston …. Please stay around thru playoffs … appreciate your efforts…. I have learned my lesson….. I think.    

Yes, well, betting is a continuous learning of lessons, as it is a harsh mistress that gives the the examination first and the lesson afterwards........

I am not seeing much good this next round as of yet....I have a set of Super Bowl indicators that have been exceptional in the past (that had the Eagles last season), but these next two rounds of the playoffs nothing stands out.

Using query text we're looking for patterns and commonalities that give an inkling of what may transpire in the future.  

I would guess that less than 10% of handicappers use heavy historical data in determining who to bet on, which means that 90% of the betting population do not espouse the belief that what has transpired in the past has a bearing or a predictability of what will take place in the future.

We're not here to argue methodology....however 96% of bettors lose, so if one loses the very first thing one should consider changing is their methodology or decision making process in placing their wagers.

We have two teams that almost certainly will be away dogs off an upset win in the first round,....the Texans and the Packers.  More than likely Houston will be playing the first seed off a bye and the Packers certainly will be.

Those teams have gone 8-11 ATS on Saturday (-3.74), 3-16 straight up (-11.68).....we could consider someone like the Texans if they played the Ravens only if they were getting north of 12 points.

If that team in the above situation is off an away dog win, those Saturday away dogs have gone 6-10 o/u (-2.56) versus an opponent off a bye....this is where the eyeball test and the data will conflict, as the Packers looked unstoppable against the Cowboys and their defense is nothing to write home after having allowed 32 points as well.

The data beats the eyeball test more often than not in the sports betting world.

Sunday away dogs have been night and day different to Saturday away dogs....an away dog off a home favorite win have gone 12-7 ATS....likely the Chiefs will qualify.

Throw in the fact that Andy Reid is exceptional on the road and this could be a possible play.  The Bills approach the level of the Cowboys in the playoffs....however this year the Bills are at home  after some very, very close near misses in the past on the road in the playoffs.

Ane we have the case of Josh Allen being an unbelievable talent,...however he approaches meathead status with his carelessness with the ball....they say "with age comes wisdom"....I haven't seen that out of Josh Allen, and in reality he's worse with the ball since Brian Dabol has moved on from the Bills.  Are we going to see the Dr. Jeckyll Josh Allen or the Mr. Hyde?....probably both several times in the same game!!!....lol.  Add to the fact that his best receiver cries if he isn't getting the ball thrown his way at least 10x/game and you have a three ring circus in Buffalo.  I have yet to see a three ring circus team whose quarterback throws the ball to the wrong team A LOT win a Super Bowl.

This is the year that the Bills should finally prevail in the playoffs with two home games lined up.  I would more likely back the Bills as a dog in Baltimore than I would when everyone is expecting them to get it done against both the Steelers and subsequently against the Chiefs.

@Indigo999

 What’s the record for these ESPN pickers now?

Andy Reid's against the spread record on the road 124-83-4 ATS, 59.9%.....as an away dog he's been 58-31 ATS, 33-20-2 as an away non-divisional dog.

He's been 6-4-1 ATS in his career on the road in the playoffs, 4-2-1 as away dog, 5-3-1 as an away non-divisional road team.......3-1-1 ATS as a non-divisional away dog in the NFL playoffs.

John Harbaugh has been only been 1-3 as a home favorite in the playoffs (0-4 o/u), and 2-2 straight up.

 GREART WORK thus far.....impressive 

Playoffs:

1)  Houston OVER.............W

2)  Houston +2.................W

3)  KC -3'.........................W

4)  Packers +7'..................W

5) Rams +3'......................W

6) Rams OVER...................L

7) Eagles -3

8) Eagles UNDER 43

Adding....

9) Bills -10

Away dogs in the wildcard round of more than 9 points have gone 1-10 ATS (-5.18), 0-11 straight up (-15.91).

Average line/total +10.7/46.9.............average score 17.1-33.

playoffs = 1 and AD and line > 9 and p:playoffs = 0

Adding one last play.....

10)  Bills/Steelers OVER 39

I have a 15-4 OVER wildcard angle....

9)  Bills -10

8)  Eagles -3

7)  Eagles/Bucs UNDER 43.

Thought the shanked field goal might come back to haunt us.

1)  Houston OVER.............W

2)  Houston +2.................W

3)  KC -3'.........................W

4)  Packers +7'..................W

5) Rams +3'......................W

6) Rams OVER...................L

7) Bills -10.......................W

8)  Bills OVER 39..............W

9) Eagles -3

10) Eagles UNDER 43

One hell of a weekend, nice job.

Divisional round......

1)  ** Ravens/Texans OVER 46

2)  ** Chiefs/Bills OVER 46