Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info
Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up.
This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday.
tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0
You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs.
Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info
Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up.
This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday.
tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0
You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs.
Quote Originally Posted by boro33: Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up. This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday. tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0 You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs.
Throw in the fact that all things being equal, and they pretty much are here, the team with the better coach and QB should always get the nod.
The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both.
Quote Originally Posted by boro33: Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up. This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday. tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0 You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs.
Throw in the fact that all things being equal, and they pretty much are here, the team with the better coach and QB should always get the nod.
The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both.
"The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both."
Yes, that might be true.....I am data making decision guy, and I am sure that that kind of narrative has its place for some.....I don't resonate with it, but I respect that type of thinking......
As Van on this forum has stated, often we have to take teams and sides that we think may lose to stay true to our process, and I have found the less rationale I use, the better my results.....the Rams could certainly lose this weekend and not cover, but my data says otherwise.
"The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both."
Yes, that might be true.....I am data making decision guy, and I am sure that that kind of narrative has its place for some.....I don't resonate with it, but I respect that type of thinking......
As Van on this forum has stated, often we have to take teams and sides that we think may lose to stay true to our process, and I have found the less rationale I use, the better my results.....the Rams could certainly lose this weekend and not cover, but my data says otherwise.
Teams that have the average net yards per pass attempt advantage (offense minus defense ypp difference) have gone 82-55 ATS in the wildcard round. For whatever reason that advantage has been huge for Saturday games going 45-23 ATS overall and 34-13 ATS (+4.42), 39-9 straight up at home....ON Chiefs and this pretty much has caused regression on Sunday games going 35-32 ATS, including 18-27-1 ATS at home....VERSUS Bills, Cowboys playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and day
I modified this query:
playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and A and wins < o:wins
SU: 14-4-0 (F 2-0, D 12-4!)
ATS: 14-4-0 (7.58, 77.8%)
I took LAR on the ML (+139 at Heritage) for one unit. Good luck everybody.
Teams that have the average net yards per pass attempt advantage (offense minus defense ypp difference) have gone 82-55 ATS in the wildcard round. For whatever reason that advantage has been huge for Saturday games going 45-23 ATS overall and 34-13 ATS (+4.42), 39-9 straight up at home....ON Chiefs and this pretty much has caused regression on Sunday games going 35-32 ATS, including 18-27-1 ATS at home....VERSUS Bills, Cowboys playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and day
I modified this query:
playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and A and wins < o:wins
SU: 14-4-0 (F 2-0, D 12-4!)
ATS: 14-4-0 (7.58, 77.8%)
I took LAR on the ML (+139 at Heritage) for one unit. Good luck everybody.
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: Teams that have the average net yards per pass attempt advantage (offense minus defense ypp difference) have gone 82-55 ATS in the wildcard round. For whatever reason that advantage has been huge for Saturday games going 45-23 ATS overall and 34-13 ATS (+4.42), 39-9 straight up at home....ON Chiefs and this pretty much has caused regression on Sunday games going 35-32 ATS, including 18-27-1 ATS at home....VERSUS Bills, Cowboys playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and day I modified this query: playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and A and wins < o:wins SU: 14-4-0 (F 2-0, D 12-4!) ATS: 14-4-0 (7.58, 77.8%) I took LAR on the ML (+139 at Heritage) for one unit. Good luck everybody.
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: Teams that have the average net yards per pass attempt advantage (offense minus defense ypp difference) have gone 82-55 ATS in the wildcard round. For whatever reason that advantage has been huge for Saturday games going 45-23 ATS overall and 34-13 ATS (+4.42), 39-9 straight up at home....ON Chiefs and this pretty much has caused regression on Sunday games going 35-32 ATS, including 18-27-1 ATS at home....VERSUS Bills, Cowboys playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and day I modified this query: playoffs = 1 and p:playoffs = 0 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and A and wins < o:wins SU: 14-4-0 (F 2-0, D 12-4!) ATS: 14-4-0 (7.58, 77.8%) I took LAR on the ML (+139 at Heritage) for one unit. Good luck everybody.
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: Quote Originally Posted by boro33: Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up. This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday. tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0 You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs. Throw in the fact that all things being equal, and they pretty much are here, the team with the better coach and QB should always get the nod. The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both.
The one narrative that I've found that seems to be consistent is.....those guys that are a hot commodity that do tons of commercials all off-season seem to have a terrible regular season.
A couple of years ago it was Baker Mayfield....he no longer is with that team. Previously it was Aaron Rodgers, who suddenly dropped off a cliff with the Packers.
This year it is Mahomes and Kelce....by most players' standards they've been fine or even good. But both guys have had less than expected results compared to what they've done in the past. Granted, a lot of Mahomes' problem is his receivers can't catch the ball.
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: Quote Originally Posted by boro33: Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up. This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday. tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0 You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs. Throw in the fact that all things being equal, and they pretty much are here, the team with the better coach and QB should always get the nod. The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both.
The one narrative that I've found that seems to be consistent is.....those guys that are a hot commodity that do tons of commercials all off-season seem to have a terrible regular season.
A couple of years ago it was Baker Mayfield....he no longer is with that team. Previously it was Aaron Rodgers, who suddenly dropped off a cliff with the Packers.
This year it is Mahomes and Kelce....by most players' standards they've been fine or even good. But both guys have had less than expected results compared to what they've done in the past. Granted, a lot of Mahomes' problem is his receivers can't catch the ball.
Haha.....it's a conspiracy!!......I am like one of those scamdicappers that hand out one side to half of you guys and the other side to the other side!...lol. However we all know how sharp everyone is at covers and ya'll caught me.
1) Oilers (Texans) +2.....winner
2) Texans OVER 45.....winner
3) Chiefs -3'..............winner
4) Rams +3'
5) Packers +7'
My lines for next week's possible AFC matchups....I AM NOT LINE PREDICTING.....these are the relative strengths I have on these teams. You will disagree probably....two differing opinions are what makes a market, so be thankful most people disagree with you.
Haha.....it's a conspiracy!!......I am like one of those scamdicappers that hand out one side to half of you guys and the other side to the other side!...lol. However we all know how sharp everyone is at covers and ya'll caught me.
1) Oilers (Texans) +2.....winner
2) Texans OVER 45.....winner
3) Chiefs -3'..............winner
4) Rams +3'
5) Packers +7'
My lines for next week's possible AFC matchups....I AM NOT LINE PREDICTING.....these are the relative strengths I have on these teams. You will disagree probably....two differing opinions are what makes a market, so be thankful most people disagree with you.
In the next (divisional) round, away dogs off a home win have tended to play OVER the total, going 37-21 OVER.....possibly the Chiefs and the Texans fall under this category.
Teams in the divisional round as away dogs that missed the playoffs last season have gone 25-20 ATS, 55.6%, whereas teams that were in the playoffs last season have covered 53% of the time.
Away dogs in the divisional round that won their opener at home by over 14 points (Texans and maybe the Chiefs) have gone 14-9 ATS.
Home favorites with the bye in the divisional round have only gone 16-26 ATS,....however both of those bye teams this season have won less than 10 games more than they've lost, 13-4 and 12-5 respectively.....those teams have gone 9-8 ATS.....49ers, Ravens. Those teams that had a bye that won 6 or less home games during the regular season have gone 6-3 ATS, 8-1 straight up, winning by an average of 12 points/game.
Typically it is the dominant home teams like the Cowboys have been this season that have a regression in the playoffs as home favorites.
Away dogs in the playoffs off a home dog win (Texans) have only been 1-4 ATS (-4.60), 0-5 straight up...losing by 19 points a game on average.
In the next (divisional) round, away dogs off a home win have tended to play OVER the total, going 37-21 OVER.....possibly the Chiefs and the Texans fall under this category.
Teams in the divisional round as away dogs that missed the playoffs last season have gone 25-20 ATS, 55.6%, whereas teams that were in the playoffs last season have covered 53% of the time.
Away dogs in the divisional round that won their opener at home by over 14 points (Texans and maybe the Chiefs) have gone 14-9 ATS.
Home favorites with the bye in the divisional round have only gone 16-26 ATS,....however both of those bye teams this season have won less than 10 games more than they've lost, 13-4 and 12-5 respectively.....those teams have gone 9-8 ATS.....49ers, Ravens. Those teams that had a bye that won 6 or less home games during the regular season have gone 6-3 ATS, 8-1 straight up, winning by an average of 12 points/game.
Typically it is the dominant home teams like the Cowboys have been this season that have a regression in the playoffs as home favorites.
Away dogs in the playoffs off a home dog win (Texans) have only been 1-4 ATS (-4.60), 0-5 straight up...losing by 19 points a game on average.
Away dogs divisional round.....dividing the wheat from the chaff, teams that have won 2 or 3 out of their last 3 road games have a very good chance of getting us the money......those teams have gone 43-30-1 as away dogs.....of those teams, away dogs again on Sunday have been very good going 30-18 ATS, and Saturday away dogs have gone only 13-12-1 ATS
playoffs=1 and AD and p:playoffs=1 and tS(W@A, N=3)>1 and pp:playoffs=0 and day
Those that have have won zero or 1 of their last three road games, their chances are much less based on past history going 9-14-1 ATS, 6-18 straight up.....VERSUS Eagles (if they beat the Bucs).
Teams in the playoffs winning how many of their last three road games.....
a) won 3 out of their last three road games....Bucs, Steelers
b) won 2 out of their last three road games....Texans, Chiefs, Packers, Rams, Lions
c) won 1 out of their last three road games....
d) won zero out of their last three road games....Eagles
Away dogs divisional round.....dividing the wheat from the chaff, teams that have won 2 or 3 out of their last 3 road games have a very good chance of getting us the money......those teams have gone 43-30-1 as away dogs.....of those teams, away dogs again on Sunday have been very good going 30-18 ATS, and Saturday away dogs have gone only 13-12-1 ATS
playoffs=1 and AD and p:playoffs=1 and tS(W@A, N=3)>1 and pp:playoffs=0 and day
Those that have have won zero or 1 of their last three road games, their chances are much less based on past history going 9-14-1 ATS, 6-18 straight up.....VERSUS Eagles (if they beat the Bucs).
Teams in the playoffs winning how many of their last three road games.....
a) won 3 out of their last three road games....Bucs, Steelers
b) won 2 out of their last three road games....Texans, Chiefs, Packers, Rams, Lions
c) won 1 out of their last three road games....
d) won zero out of their last three road games....Eagles
Playoff home favorites that have won their last 3 road games only cover 37.3% of the time. Fade BUF/take PIT.
I'll probably pass on this because I prefer an ATS margin edge of at least 3 points. Maybe I'll come up with another reason or two to fade BUF/take PIT. Good luck everybody.
Playoff home favorites that have won their last 3 road games only cover 37.3% of the time. Fade BUF/take PIT.
I'll probably pass on this because I prefer an ATS margin edge of at least 3 points. Maybe I'll come up with another reason or two to fade BUF/take PIT. Good luck everybody.
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: Quote Originally Posted by boro33: Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up. This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday. tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0 You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs. Throw in the fact that all things being equal, and they pretty much are here, the team with the better coach and QB should always get the nod. The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both.
If we follow BB JoeQ publics support since Browns blew their wad... LA Rams are THE PLAY today?? Especially with a Hook AND Laporte's injury...Rams on a 6-1 and roll AND hot (like Texans), this just might be the One Really solid Road Dog to Support..
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: Quote Originally Posted by boro33: Sure looks like the Rams have a lot of angles in their favor. Thank you for posting this info Sure seems that way.....I just modified my search somewhat....a home favorite on Sunday of less than 9 points that didn't make the playoffs last season has been 4-18-1 (or 4-19 ATS using a different database) only 9-14 straight up. This moves to 8-22 ATS (gimmethedog) if both teams missed the playoffs, 2-11 ATS on Sunday. tpS(playoffs)=0 and HF and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and line>-9 and day and opS(playoffs)=0 You're right, every angle is strongly in favor of the Lions not covering.....fading the Lions will probably be my biggest play of the playoffs. Throw in the fact that all things being equal, and they pretty much are here, the team with the better coach and QB should always get the nod. The problem for me is the officials in this game. The league already gifted the Rams a SB and Lions vs Cowboys would be a huge draw, rating wise. The other problem is that the Browns and Rams are the two most heavily bet sides this weekend, and I don’t see the public winning both.
If we follow BB JoeQ publics support since Browns blew their wad... LA Rams are THE PLAY today?? Especially with a Hook AND Laporte's injury...Rams on a 6-1 and roll AND hot (like Texans), this just might be the One Really solid Road Dog to Support..
Home favorites that won their last 8 home games have gone 9-16 ATS in the first round of the playoffs.
If you limit those 25 results (which go all the way back to the 2002 season) to home favorites of -6 or more, you get 16 results. Those 16 home favorites went 8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS in their first playoff game after going 8-0 at home during the reglar season. Sounds like cause for concern for Cowboys backers today.
When Indigo999 wrote "in the first round of the playoffs", he meant that home team's first playoff game, which took place either in the Wild Card round or in the Divisional round.
Home favorites that won their last 8 home games have gone 9-16 ATS in the first round of the playoffs.
If you limit those 25 results (which go all the way back to the 2002 season) to home favorites of -6 or more, you get 16 results. Those 16 home favorites went 8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS in their first playoff game after going 8-0 at home during the reglar season. Sounds like cause for concern for Cowboys backers today.
When Indigo999 wrote "in the first round of the playoffs", he meant that home team's first playoff game, which took place either in the Wild Card round or in the Divisional round.
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