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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    you just cant beat the refs

    «First Previous 123
    BenG23
    VEGAS25
    HoldingXYZ
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    BenG23
    BenG23
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2015 - 6:15 PM ET #51

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven19083:


    You're being very insulting and arrogant, and I don't know why.  I'm not sure if you're distorting the arguement so badly because you genuinely don't understand English too well (is English your 2nd language?) or if you have me confused with another poster and you're combining our 2 separate arguments into 1.  There are several points here:

    1) You are pretending this is a discussion about rigged vs not rigged. That's BS.  I've stated on several occasions I think rigs are real. Even in this very thread I've posted that I think rigs are real.  Just this week I did a write up saying I'm avoiding betting the Panthers because it's suspicious (of a rig):

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102200097

    This isn't a discussion about whether rigs are real or not. Stop making strawman arguments.  

    2) You're pretending last night's Patriots game supports your theory ("The NFL will rig this match so that the Patriots win because undefeated Panthers vs undefeated Patriots is a great storyline ... the NFL will also rig this match so that Denver covers"). Last night's game proves your theory wrong not correct. 

    If the NFL wanted the Patriots to win because it's a good storyline, why did they ignore the penalty late into the game when the Patriots were up by a few points, where a Broncos player held the face mask? That would have been the perfect call for your theory because it would have reversed the Broncos TD that put them in the lead.

    If the game is so controlled that the NFL scripts it ahead of time based on story, why did they let the Patriots take a 14 point lead into the 4th quarter, which makes them rigging a cover of the 2.5-point spread all the more obvious?

    Why does the NFL even care about rigging a spread's cover? That's something Vegas cares about not the NFL.

    3) You still haven't addressed the thing we're talking about: my claim that surgical rigs controlling the game's score down to a 1-2 point margin are nearly impossible in football (unless many key players are bought) ... which if you're not paying attention, last night's game supports.


    If anyone is rigging spreads, it's Vegas or betting rings not the NFL. The NFL couldn't care less about spreads.  And when Vegas/Betting Rings do rig games, it's nothing  even remotely refined or surgical. It's crude and obvious. It relies on crooked refs and weak links on a team.

    I stand by my original comment which started this discussion between us, incase you've forgot:

    A rig that's so surgical it falls within a 3 point spread goes beyond the usual avenues people discuss in a rigged game such as bad referee calls, etc. You're talking about something that would have to involve the entire team here. A fine control of every aspect of the score.

    Keep in mind, this surgical rig did not happen last night and your claim is NOT supported by last night game. If anything, last night proves my theory that rigs are crude and can not be surgical enough to both control a winner AND keep the winning margin within 1-2 points.  That's a taaaaaaaaaaaaall order to fill and would need almost the entire team behind to script.

    Look, in the end, I think this discussion is silly. We're obviously on the same side here (games are rigged / suspicious) and having an argument over who is doing the rigs and how surgical these rigs are seems like a waste of time to me. I'd rather focus on methods of identifying them ahead of time and profiting off them so that we can all kick the bookies in the nuts together




    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven19083:


    You're being very insulting and arrogant, and I don't know why.  I'm not sure if you're distorting the arguement so badly because you genuinely don't understand English too well (is English your 2nd language?) or if you have me confused with another poster and you're combining our 2 separate arguments into 1.  There are several points here:

    1) You are pretending this is a discussion about rigged vs not rigged. That's BS.  I've stated on several occasions I think rigs are real. Even in this very thread I've posted that I think rigs are real.  Just this week I did a write up saying I'm avoiding betting the Panthers because it's suspicious (of a rig):

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102200097

    This isn't a discussion about whether rigs are real or not. Stop making strawman arguments.  

    2) You're pretending last night's Patriots game supports your theory ("The NFL will rig this match so that the Patriots win because undefeated Panthers vs undefeated Patriots is a great storyline ... the NFL will also rig this match so that Denver covers"). Last night's game proves your theory wrong not correct. 

    If the NFL wanted the Patriots to win because it's a good storyline, why did they ignore the penalty late into the game when the Patriots were up by a few points, where a Broncos player held the face mask? That would have been the perfect call for your theory because it would have reversed the Broncos TD that put them in the lead.

    If the game is so controlled that the NFL scripts it ahead of time based on story, why did they let the Patriots take a 14 point lead into the 4th quarter, which makes them rigging a cover of the 2.5-point spread all the more obvious?

    Why does the NFL even care about rigging a spread's cover? That's something Vegas cares about not the NFL.

    3) You still haven't addressed the thing we're talking about: my claim that surgical rigs controlling the game's score down to a 1-2 point margin are nearly impossible in football (unless many key players are bought) ... which if you're not paying attention, last night's game supports.


    If anyone is rigging spreads, it's Vegas or betting rings not the NFL. The NFL couldn't care less about spreads.  And when Vegas/Betting Rings do rig games, it's nothing  even remotely refined or surgical. It's crude and obvious. It relies on crooked refs and weak links on a team.

    I stand by my original comment which started this discussion between us, incase you've forgot:

    A rig that's so surgical it falls within a 3 point spread goes beyond the usual avenues people discuss in a rigged game such as bad referee calls, etc. You're talking about something that would have to involve the entire team here. A fine control of every aspect of the score.

    Keep in mind, this surgical rig did not happen last night and your claim is NOT supported by last night game. If anything, last night proves my theory that rigs are crude and can not be surgical enough to both control a winner AND keep the winning margin within 1-2 points.  That's a taaaaaaaaaaaaall order to fill and would need almost the entire team behind to script.

    Look, in the end, I think this discussion is silly. We're obviously on the same side here (games are rigged / suspicious) and having an argument over who is doing the rigs and how surgical these rigs are seems like a waste of time to me. I'd rather focus on methods of identifying them ahead of time and profiting off them so that we can all kick the bookies in the nuts together




    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes
     
    VEGAS25
    VEGAS25
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2015 - 6:22 PM ET #52

    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:


    id donate money  to isis instead of gambling it so they can make a video chopping the refs fcking heads off fcking crooks

    ISIS?  Then just donate it to the US Treasury.  You know WE trained and financed them.  ISIS is just Al Qaeda 2.0
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:


    id donate money  to isis instead of gambling it so they can make a video chopping the refs fcking heads off fcking crooks

    ISIS?  Then just donate it to the US Treasury.  You know WE trained and financed them.  ISIS is just Al Qaeda 2.0
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 3:21 AM ET #53

    Refs will be refs... But this year they really hit the public over the head... Honestly,, im starting to question whether or not gronk got hurt on that play... He started shaking after a light hit in the air... I didnt buy it... Then immediately after they spit out 8 injuries he had all lined up in perfect sequential order... LOL 
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    Refs will be refs... But this year they really hit the public over the head... Honestly,, im starting to question whether or not gronk got hurt on that play... He started shaking after a light hit in the air... I didnt buy it... Then immediately after they spit out 8 injuries he had all lined up in perfect sequential order... LOL 
     
    Steven19083
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 4:41 AM ET #54

    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:

    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes


    That question, and the entire section "2)," was an argument against the theory in bold.  The theory would have had the Patriots winning because it's a better storyline (ie- the live bettors you mention would have profited and Vegas would have lost money). It's what I'm arguing against.  So we're on the same page here.  Like I said: If anyone is rigging spreads, it's Vegas or betting rings
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:

    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes


    That question, and the entire section "2)," was an argument against the theory in bold.  The theory would have had the Patriots winning because it's a better storyline (ie- the live bettors you mention would have profited and Vegas would have lost money). It's what I'm arguing against.  So we're on the same page here.  Like I said: If anyone is rigging spreads, it's Vegas or betting rings
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 6:12 AM ET #55

    There was scientific research done about what makes TV ratings go up. And that is to have close games. So that at any given turn of the game you would need to watch the whole game to know whether your over hit or whether your team covered. If every first half the home team blows out the lessor team then no one wpuld watch this so called sport. Which is why you always look to taking the dog for the most part. Odds makers know this. Now when the games are close games will be rigged and sometimes bad calls are made and make up calls as well. Whenever a bad call is made. It is often worse than losing 7 points. It is a momentum killer. 


    As for this game, they don't need the same story line of the best vs the best. Or brady going 17-0 and tanking another superbowl. They will use a new story line. As for why the patriots won the last one. I honestly think it had to do with Hernandez , just a gut feeling. And then the stage was set with deflate gate and that is when you go all in on the hated team. Make no mistake of this. There's cause and effect on how they can have that many people and create such lopsided bets. Genius I think. You just have to respect the line. 
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    There was scientific research done about what makes TV ratings go up. And that is to have close games. So that at any given turn of the game you would need to watch the whole game to know whether your over hit or whether your team covered. If every first half the home team blows out the lessor team then no one wpuld watch this so called sport. Which is why you always look to taking the dog for the most part. Odds makers know this. Now when the games are close games will be rigged and sometimes bad calls are made and make up calls as well. Whenever a bad call is made. It is often worse than losing 7 points. It is a momentum killer. 


    As for this game, they don't need the same story line of the best vs the best. Or brady going 17-0 and tanking another superbowl. They will use a new story line. As for why the patriots won the last one. I honestly think it had to do with Hernandez , just a gut feeling. And then the stage was set with deflate gate and that is when you go all in on the hated team. Make no mistake of this. There's cause and effect on how they can have that many people and create such lopsided bets. Genius I think. You just have to respect the line. 
     
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 6:19 AM ET #56

    The above mentioned is the most fundamental way to fade the public. Throw away your traditional handicapping when it comes to football. Keep some stats and situational ones. But what it all comes down to are those games where the house cannot afford to lose. Brady loses to a backup qb and the excuse was injuries and bad calls. At best you would've gotten a back door. But no they can't have too many of those without the public shouting rigged can they. 
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    The above mentioned is the most fundamental way to fade the public. Throw away your traditional handicapping when it comes to football. Keep some stats and situational ones. But what it all comes down to are those games where the house cannot afford to lose. Brady loses to a backup qb and the excuse was injuries and bad calls. At best you would've gotten a back door. But no they can't have too many of those without the public shouting rigged can they. 
     
    DirtNap
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 12:43 PM ET #57

    The NFL has been fixed for years and in many ways. It involves the referees,the owners,Vegas,players,media,etc. Dribble4 is spot on in everything he is saying.Why would you think the NFL prohibits the referees from taking any questions about games. Parity is code for keep the contests close, keep the audience in their seats in front of the t.v.commercials. Close games make the fixes more manageable and justifies all the tight spreads you see in the league. And yes , the NCAA is fixed in much the same ways as the NFL. It just a much larger drink to poison consistently.
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    The NFL has been fixed for years and in many ways. It involves the referees,the owners,Vegas,players,media,etc. Dribble4 is spot on in everything he is saying.Why would you think the NFL prohibits the referees from taking any questions about games. Parity is code for keep the contests close, keep the audience in their seats in front of the t.v.commercials. Close games make the fixes more manageable and justifies all the tight spreads you see in the league. And yes , the NCAA is fixed in much the same ways as the NFL. It just a much larger drink to poison consistently.
     
    DirtNap
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 12:44 PM ET #58

    The NFL has been fixed for years and in many ways. It involves the referees,the owners,Vegas,players,media,etc. Dribble4 is spot on in everything he is saying.Why would you think the NFL prohibits the referees from taking any questions about games. Parity is code for keep the contests close, keep the audience in their seats in front of the t.v.commercials. Close games make the fixes more manageable and justifies all the tight spreads you see in the league. And yes , the NCAA is fixed in much the same ways as the NFL. It just a much larger drink to poison consistently.
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    The NFL has been fixed for years and in many ways. It involves the referees,the owners,Vegas,players,media,etc. Dribble4 is spot on in everything he is saying.Why would you think the NFL prohibits the referees from taking any questions about games. Parity is code for keep the contests close, keep the audience in their seats in front of the t.v.commercials. Close games make the fixes more manageable and justifies all the tight spreads you see in the league. And yes , the NCAA is fixed in much the same ways as the NFL. It just a much larger drink to poison consistently.
     
    DrJohn3719
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 1:24 PM ET #59

    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:



    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes

    Only one factual issue with your theory: absurdly high underdog money lines actually pose a bigger liability for bookmakers than absurdly high favorite lines (e.g. -5000 patriots). As evidenced by the fact that for games with super high point spreads, they oftentimes don't release a moneyline at all. Bearing this in mind, they'd actually prefer that the team who is -5000 close out the game, as they have no issue paying out such awful odds. It's the people who took +550 broncos that created problems for them.

    Back to the drawing board.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:



    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes

    Only one factual issue with your theory: absurdly high underdog money lines actually pose a bigger liability for bookmakers than absurdly high favorite lines (e.g. -5000 patriots). As evidenced by the fact that for games with super high point spreads, they oftentimes don't release a moneyline at all. Bearing this in mind, they'd actually prefer that the team who is -5000 close out the game, as they have no issue paying out such awful odds. It's the people who took +550 broncos that created problems for them.

    Back to the drawing board.
     
    Second2-Numbers
    Second2-Numbers
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2015 - 11:00 PM ET #60

    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:



    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes

    Now , this is funny :

    Ask yourself - and be honest - How much did you you bet In-game ? or do you bet at all ? what make you think that :there will be a single  stupid gambler will bet $5k  in game when N.ENG was leading 14pts ? 

    BTW show me a book that will take $1k/per live betting - don't try to guess if you don't know the answer . ( because I, myself ,had 5 diff.account with off shore books and NONE of them will take it -even though my balance was $$$$k + in each of them  ) 
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenG23:



    What do you mean why would they let Patriots take a 14 point lead going into 4th quarter? Why wouldn't they? People were slamming the Patriots ML the whole game live i think going into the fourth quarter the live bet was -5000. i wonder how many people got fcked going all in there were some on covers and they had gone all in live bet during the game exactly what vegas wanted making everyone think pats were going to win stay undefeated then as planned, vegas pulls the plugs and fcks pats with bull calls to get the cashcow. no way they would let all those millions of dollars on pats be up for the chase they were going to take it yes or yes

    Now , this is funny :

    Ask yourself - and be honest - How much did you you bet In-game ? or do you bet at all ? what make you think that :there will be a single  stupid gambler will bet $5k  in game when N.ENG was leading 14pts ? 

    BTW show me a book that will take $1k/per live betting - don't try to guess if you don't know the answer . ( because I, myself ,had 5 diff.account with off shore books and NONE of them will take it -even though my balance was $$$$k + in each of them  ) 
     
     
    DrJohn3719
    DrJohn3719
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2015 - 12:09 AM ET #61

    Quote Originally Posted by Second2-Numbers:


    Now , this is funny :

    Ask yourself - and be honest - How much did you you bet In-game ? or do you bet at all ? what make you think that :there will be a single  stupid gambler will bet $5k  in game when N.ENG was leading 14pts ? 

    BTW show me a book that will take $1k/per live betting - don't try to guess if you don't know the answer . ( because I, myself ,had 5 diff.account with off shore books and NONE of them will take it -even though my balance was $$$$k + in each of them  ) 

    Bookmaker will take up to $10k on certain primetime game live bets. Though typically the limit is $1-3k.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Second2-Numbers:


    Now , this is funny :

    Ask yourself - and be honest - How much did you you bet In-game ? or do you bet at all ? what make you think that :there will be a single  stupid gambler will bet $5k  in game when N.ENG was leading 14pts ? 

    BTW show me a book that will take $1k/per live betting - don't try to guess if you don't know the answer . ( because I, myself ,had 5 diff.account with off shore books and NONE of them will take it -even though my balance was $$$$k + in each of them  ) 

    Bookmaker will take up to $10k on certain primetime game live bets. Though typically the limit is $1-3k.
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