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You want a write-up??? You got a write-up!!! The BIGGEST ONE OF MINE OF 2013! Jaguars@Denver baby!

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Posts: 143

scalabrine

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Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:18 PM ET #51

@glyde welldone. .5 points on 27 is slightly different than .5 pts on 3. I think you were ok not to buy the hook :)

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scalabrine

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Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:19 PM ET #52

@covers correct. It is a big plus.

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scalabrine

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Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:19 PM ET #53

@ mega - so you are laying 27? Is that correct?

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megatron54

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 132

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:30 PM ET #54

Im taking denver.. Cant see jags putting a dent at mile high stadium. Manning will pick apart jags defense and will force jags to throw the ball and play catch up..

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/10/07/many-records-will-fall-if-broncos-continue-torrid-pace/

Read that..

This is manning best game to break records on going against the worst nfl team

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megatron54

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Posts: 132

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:31 PM ET #55

Manning is jedi master!

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scalabrine

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Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:33 PM ET #56

GL Megatron. Place the bet to the books in small denominations. I don't like too many large bills.

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megatron54

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 132

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:40 PM ET #57

So why back the jags? When legendary is in the making?

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megatron54

Prospect

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Posts: 132

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 4:41 PM ET #58

GL scaralbrine

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punjabi

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Posts: 83

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 5:12 PM ET #59

I don't think it's about how many points Broncos will score. We know they will score about 40-45 even if they rest starters late. I think it depends on how many Garbage points Jags can put up. That's what people should be focused on imo. So how many points do y'all envision Jags putting up? I'd guess about 17? I don't know.

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punjabi

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Posts: 83

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 5:13 PM ET #60

I think it will be close to the spread either way.

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FadeThisXen

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Posts: 942

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 5:32 PM ET #61

Denver 41 - Jacksonville 0 : Sadness will prevail here, 3rd string Broncos are better than 1st string Jaguars...just saying.

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scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 5:58 PM ET #62

Mega - I'm backing the Jags for all the reasons in the original post, and with 27 points you only really need about three of those reasons vs. of every one of them.

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scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:04 PM ET #63

@pun - look, you think the Broncos will score 45 at the high end and about 17. You have it as a 28 point differential. That's assuming EVERYTHING goes the Broncos way in O because that is te high end. What if a FG is missed? What about a turnover. What about 2nd stringers. All this is assuming this will be a huge blowout which I find unlikely. Look at Texas/OK today. Texas was a 14 point dog AT HOME! Mack Brown's head will roll!!! Go look at the final score. What mention this game? Motivation will win any game no matter the talent. The Jags will come to play and they will be motivated.

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scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:06 PM ET #64

@fade. I'll give you the price of the Jags moneyline on this game for the Broncos scoring 41 or more and the Jags getting shut out. How much do you want to bet?

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CountSpacula

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Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 657

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 6:22 PM ET #65

.........laying the 27 with Denver

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Bill_Stax

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 53

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 7:43 PM ET #66

I like your analysis in some aspects but according to football outsiders jax could be the worst team in NFL history, so the line is not way off base in any event. I'm not saying the line is spot on, but its not likely to be way off. It might not even be enough. It's tough to judge how bad jax really is.

I would have liked this better had Denver won by a decent margin last week instead of go through a scare. They are much less likely to take jax likely but the spread would still be the same or better for jax backers.

I hear what you saying in that this is jax superbowl but I think you might be one level too low on your thinking. By now this whole let down phenomenon, which used to be betting parlance, is totally mainstream. To stay ahead of the curve you have to think one level ahead.

Recall that KC is still undefeated so there is pressure in the division. This line could have been bigger and something to pounce on, but circumstances didn't line up just right. I accept that.

I will take a good look at Henne and tried to cap how the team might fare with him but at most this is a small play and nothing to go crazy about.

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Bill_Stax

Prospect

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Posts: 53

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 7:45 PM ET #67

*take jax lightly

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benhogan76

Legend

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 58908

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 7:55 PM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

4) Backups - You want backups determining your cover? If you take Denver you do. Because they will not play Manning with a late 21 or 28 point lead which means he may be gone by the third quarter. As will most of the starters on D, opening a HUGE backdoor. And that is only if this is a first half BLOWOUT. If it's not, you win backing Jax easily.

Ah, what was that? Ignore it.

5) How about coming down from last week's Dallas game.Almost 100 points scored??? Over 1,000 yards in total offense? Do you think the first thing John Fox said on Monday was, "Let's study the tape on the Jags and get out there for a hell of a practice!!!" There is no way you have such a euphoric win and maintain that intensity all week for one of the worst teams in the NFL (and the Jags might not be worse than the Giants at the moment!).

I'm tired. Who is this guy? Ignore him.

6) Social Networking - These lines are no secret. All these players have Twitter and Facebook and know full well that they are biggest underdogs in NFL history. ALL OF THEM. That is called disrespect and that is a major motivator to SHOW UP. And they only need to SHOW UP to be within FOUR TD's. Yes, FOUR TD's. I'll take that cushion.

7) Lastly, and maybe most importantly. How about Denver's matchup next week?

Next week Denver is AT INDIANAPOLIS and Peyton returning to the franchise he made. Talk about a lookahead game vs. Jax! This is the ultimate one.

So Denver comes from Dallas, scores 51, goes home to play Jacksonville, the league's worst, and they are supposed to keep the pedal to the metal when Indy is up the following week where Manning will be honored ceremoniously by his ex-team?

Yeah sure. That's a great spot to lay FOUR TD's.

Why not ignore THIS ALL.

Take one of the bullets above or all of them, but they ALL support taking the biggest line in NFL history which ALREADY compensates you for how bad Jacksonville is and how good Denver is. The bullets above go beyond that providing you what is necessary to back Jax.

Man up people.

Fear will destroy a man.

And there is NOTHING to FEAR when you are getting 4 TD's before your team gets off the bus!

I'm even gonna post the 27 because I know everyone reading this can't grab the 28 anymore. Yes, TAKE the TWENTY SEVEN TOO.

This is one spread that isn't getting away from this poster. Seeya in 30 years when your false teeth are on your wife's side of the sink and you see spread like this again:

JAGUARS +27 OVER BRONCOS

L A R G E

You want anyone against you to grow a set and post their Denver ticket yet you go with JAGUARS LARGE. What does large mean? You want tickets posted then give me some idea how much you stand to lose. Best part is that you win this bet you will be popping off, you lose and you will still tell anyone who argues that you were right.

22nd

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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

4) Backups - You want backups determining your cover? If you take Denver you do. Because they will not play Manning with a late 21 or 28 point lead which means he may be gone by the third quarter. As will most of the starters on D, opening a HUGE backdoor. And that is only if this is a first half BLOWOUT. If it's not, you win backing Jax easily.

Ah, what was that? Ignore it.

5) How about coming down from last week's Dallas game.Almost 100 points scored??? Over 1,000 yards in total offense? Do you think the first thing John Fox said on Monday was, "Let's study the tape on the Jags and get out there for a hell of a practice!!!" There is no way you have such a euphoric win and maintain that intensity all week for one of the worst teams in the NFL (and the Jags might not be worse than the Giants at the moment!).

I'm tired. Who is this guy? Ignore him.

6) Social Networking - These lines are no secret. All these players have Twitter and Facebook and know full well that they are biggest underdogs in NFL history. ALL OF THEM. That is called disrespect and that is a major motivator to SHOW UP. And they only need to SHOW UP to be within FOUR TD's. Yes, FOUR TD's. I'll take that cushion.

7) Lastly, and maybe most importantly. How about Denver's matchup next week?

Next week Denver is AT INDIANAPOLIS and Peyton returning to the franchise he made. Talk about a lookahead game vs. Jax! This is the ultimate one.

So Denver comes from Dallas, scores 51, goes home to play Jacksonville, the league's worst, and they are supposed to keep the pedal to the metal when Indy is up the following week where Manning will be honored ceremoniously by his ex-team?

Yeah sure. That's a great spot to lay FOUR TD's.

Why not ignore THIS ALL.

Take one of the bullets above or all of them, but they ALL support taking the biggest line in NFL history which ALREADY compensates you for how bad Jacksonville is and how good Denver is. The bullets above go beyond that providing you what is necessary to back Jax.

Man up people.

Fear will destroy a man.

And there is NOTHING to FEAR when you are getting 4 TD's before your team gets off the bus!

I'm even gonna post the 27 because I know everyone reading this can't grab the 28 anymore. Yes, TAKE the TWENTY SEVEN TOO.

This is one spread that isn't getting away from this poster. Seeya in 30 years when your false teeth are on your wife's side of the sink and you see spread like this again:

JAGUARS +27 OVER BRONCOS

L A R G E

You want anyone against you to grow a set and post their Denver ticket yet you go with JAGUARS LARGE. What does large mean? You want tickets posted then give me some idea how much you stand to lose. Best part is that you win this bet you will be popping off, you lose and you will still tell anyone who argues that you were right.

punjabi

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 83

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 8:45 PM ET #69

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

@pun - look, you think the Broncos will score 45 at the high end and about 17. You have it as a 28 point differential. That's assuming EVERYTHING goes the Broncos way in O because that is te high end. What if a FG is missed? What about a turnover. What about 2nd stringers. All this is assuming this will be a huge blowout which I find unlikely. Look at Texas/OK today. Texas was a 14 point dog AT HOME! Mack Brown's head will roll!!! Go look at the final score. What mention this game? Motivation will win any game no matter the talent. The Jags will come to play and they will be motivated.

Yeah you know what? I really have no idea what's going to happen in this game. My guess on the score was just off the top of my head. I see Jags getting blown out but I'm not sure by how much. 27 points or not, I'm not going against the Denver offense especially at home.

Anyways, wish you luck. I'll agree with you on one thing. 27pts in the NFL? Nobody can blame one for taking the points.

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xianshino

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 150

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 9:35 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by oldirtdog:

Xia...
Obviously you are not very good at reading comprehension. Jax D is actually a better D statistically then Denver. And those garbage time points you mention actually count when one is wagering on a sporting event. So please, by all means take Denver. Just makes me feel better about being on the right side

Your first post was used to dispute what I said?
I feel honored..

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best_bets

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 8152

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 9:54 PM ET #71

This game should be a "for sh!ts and giggles play" for about 1% of your bankroll. It's like the WWE, for entertainment only.

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Fist_of_Fury

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 193

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 10:02 PM ET #72

Bronco could be up 35 by the end of the 1H. Peyton may sit in the 2nd. Jag make a late run for it, all of a sudden the scoreboard reads 41-28.

Jags and the Over.

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lakers9

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 411

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 10:05 PM ET #73

I just logged onto my locals site, saw that denver is now -30. i just put another half unit on the jags +30. haha, i know im gonna regret it tomorrow, its just too many points to resist......GL scal!

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deuce1

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2004

Posts: 311

Posted: Oct. 12, 2013 - 11:56 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I've NEVER seen so many posters with their tail between their legs than I have due to this game and this spread.

It's all right here in my other thread:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101706372

No Play!

How can you play that!

On what basis???!

I'll make this short and sweet because I don't have time for most of the dopes on this site.

I am on Jacksonville.....LARGE.

And why is that? Because it will be at least 30 years before we see this spread again. You DO NOT let a spread like this get away.

I am AMAZED that there are guys on here that will buy hooks to get a number to 3 or up to 3.5, paying for 1/2 point (that 90% of the time won't matter) and then when the books give them the BIGGEST NUMBER in the HISTORY of NFL SPORTS BETTING, they find every excuse NOT to the bet the game.

I haven't seen many Denver backers. That is a good thing. You'd be a fool to lay 4 TD's in any NFL game. But I haven't seen Jax backers either, and that is what is called, burning a bankroll

.

Live by this mantra when it comes to betting: You see an edge? You take it!

Does this happen on covers? Of course not! You say you will take the record setting number of points and people go ballistic! "You're a fool!" they say. Jax is TERRIBLE.

You know these guys have a terrible argument when all they have to offer is "Denver is GREAT and Jax is THE WORST!"

At root of the word ignorant is the word IGNORE. So when all these posters laud Manning and company and shi* on Jax, let's see what they are ignoring. Here are SEVEN big reasons to back the Jags.

1) If you take the Jags, you are getting TWENTY EIGHT POINTS. How big a spread is that? The biggest ever. The awfulness of the Jaguars warrants such a line when a team like Denver has you coming to their home stadium.

So what about this spread. Is there history to it? Yes there is. Since 1985, favorites laying 20 or more points have gone a woeful ONE AND EIGHT ATS. That is quite significant. You'd think people would know such a thing since it was POSTED ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THIS VERY SITE:

https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=335815 (and that Seattle line closed at 19.5 at worst and was never a true 20 point spread for any significant period. And if you want to argue that the trend is 2-8 ATS in favor of the dogs with spreads of 20 and greater).

But who cares about that let's just IGNORE it right posters?

2) Denver just happens to have the 29th ranked Defense in the NFL. Yes, 29th. Look it up. Which is SEVEN SPOTS WORSE than Jax at 22. Which means Jax CAN put points up on them. And if they do, Denver may need another FIFTY-some points to cover this line. That is a hell of a tall task three weeks in a row, even if it is on Jacksonville.

But let's just IGNORE that right posters?

3) Henne is likely starting. That matters....A LOT. Henne doesn't turn the ball over like Gabbert does. Henne really should not be Gabbert's backup. Fewer turnovers and pick 6's matter when you are catching 28. And they have Jones-Drew behind him. Is he having a terrible season. YES! The whole team is. But Jones-Drew is a legitimate RB who can put up 100 and take pressure off the QB if he is motivated. And he'll be motivated. This is Jax's Super Bowl.

But let's just IGNORE that too while we're at it!