Posted:
#1
I've NEVER seen so many posters with their tail between their legs than I have due to this game and this spread.
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101706372
No Play!
How can you play that!
On what basis???!
I'll make this short and sweet because I don't have time for most of the dopes on this site.
I am on Jacksonville.....LARGE.
And why is that? Because it will be at least 30 years before we see this spread again. You DO NOT let a spread like this get away.
I am AMAZED that there are guys on here that will buy hooks to get a number to 3 or up to 3.5, paying for 1/2 point (that 90% of the time won't matter) and then when the books give them the BIGGEST NUMBER in the HISTORY of NFL SPORTS BETTING, they find every excuse NOT to the bet the game.
I haven't seen many Denver backers. That is a good thing. You'd be a fool to lay 4 TD's in any NFL game. But I haven't seen Jax backers either, and that is what is called, burning a bankroll 
.
.Live by this mantra when it comes to betting: You see an edge? You take it!
Does this happen on covers? Of course not! You say you will take the record setting number of points and people go ballistic! "You're a fool!" they say. Jax is TERRIBLE.
You know these guys have a terrible argument when all they have to offer is "Denver is GREAT and Jax is THE WORST!"
At root of the word ignorant is the word IGNORE. So when all these posters laud Manning and company and shi* on Jax, let's see what they are ignoring. Here are SEVEN big reasons to back the Jags.
1) If you take the Jags, you are getting TWENTY EIGHT POINTS. How big a spread is that? The biggest ever. The awfulness of the Jaguars warrants such a line when a team like Denver has you coming to their home stadium.
So what about this spread. Is there history to it? Yes there is. Since 1985, favorites laying 20 or more points have gone a woeful ONE AND EIGHT ATS. That is quite significant. You'd think people would know such a thing since it was POSTED ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THIS VERY SITE:
https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=335815 (and that Seattle line closed at 19.5 at worst and was never a true 20 point spread for any significant period. And if you want to argue that the trend is 2-8 ATS in favor of the dogs with spreads of 20 and greater).
But who cares about that let's just IGNORE it right posters?
2) Denver just happens to have the 29th ranked Defense in the NFL. Yes, 29th. Look it up. Which is SEVEN SPOTS WORSE than Jax at 22. Which means Jax CAN put points up on them. And if they do, Denver may need another FIFTY-some points to cover this line. That is a hell of a tall task three weeks in a row, even if it is on Jacksonville.
But let's just IGNORE that right posters?
3) Henne is likely starting. That matters....A LOT. Henne doesn't turn the ball over like Gabbert does. Henne really should not be Gabbert's backup. Fewer turnovers and pick 6's matter when you are catching 28. And they have Jones-Drew behind him. Is he having a terrible season. YES! The whole team is. But Jones-Drew is a legitimate RB who can put up 100 and take pressure off the QB if he is motivated. And he'll be motivated. This is Jax's Super Bowl.
But let's just IGNORE that too while we're at it!
0
Smart man.
nice write up 
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