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You want a write-up??? You got a write-up!!! The BIGGEST ONE OF MINE OF 2013! Jaguars@Denver baby!

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Posted: #76
STRAIGHT BETOct 13525.00 USD / 500.00 USD
 
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Posted: #77
Scalbrine have you WATCHED Jacksonville this year bro?? Not sure would be so confident if you have. I would say that 28 line is accurate
 
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Posted: #78
Has Denver played their backups at all?  How many series has Osweiler even played?  Peyton plays all but one or two series in any blowout game, this will be no different so don't try and say that the Denver 2nd string will be playing an entire half.  They could easily get 1 or 2 D/ST td's and want to keep the starting offense out there to keep sharp.  Banking on Denver playing backups is a horrible idea
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by CountSpacula:

.........laying the 27 with Denver
Great play. Great counterargument...
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by Bill_Stax:

I like your analysis in some aspects but according to football outsiders jax could be the worst team in NFL history, so the line is not way off base in any event. I'm not saying the line is spot on, but its not likely to be way off. It might not even be enough. It's tough to judge how bad jax really is.

I would have liked this better had Denver won by a decent margin last week instead of go through a scare. They are much less likely to take jax likely but the spread would still be the same or better for jax backers.

I hear what you saying in that this is jax superbowl but I think you might be one level too low on your thinking. By now this whole let down phenomenon, which used to be betting parlance, is totally mainstream. To stay ahead of the curve you have to think one level ahead.

Recall that KC is still undefeated so there is pressure in the division. This line could have been bigger and something to pounce on, but circumstances didn't line up just right. I accept that.

I will take a good look at Henne and tried to cap how the team might fare with him but at most this is a small play and nothing to go crazy about.

Oh come on. You're telling me in week 6 that Denver is worried about KC winning the division. 

But just to entertain that misguided assumption...

Let's assume they are. Which game do you think there is a higher likelihood of them losing? This week vs. Jax at home or next week at Indy? Which do you think they may start preparing for THIS WEEK. 

Given how bad you say Jax is (and they are NOT the worst team in NFL history given they have skill position players and aren't decimated by injuries, teams of which there were many of in yesteryear), why do they need to POUND them by 27+. They want to go to 6-0. This line is 27!

Remember Jax scored 17 points in Seattle. Yes it was in garbage time but the Niners scored 3 and also had garbage time. There is some offense here and you only need about 17-20 points here to cover against a TERRIBLE defense. 

Denver will not put 50+ up three straight weeks. They'll likely be under 40 which translates to a cover.
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

You want anyone against you to grow a set and post their Denver ticket yet you go with JAGUARS LARGE.  What does large mean?  You want tickets posted then give me some idea how much you stand to lose.  Best part is that you win this bet you will be popping off, you lose and you will still tell anyone who argues that you were right.
 

Several hundred. I never bet an amount that will prevent me from paying a bill or being inconvenienced outside of the loss itself which many of us lose sleep over just because we feel we capped a game correctly. I made the post to help POSTERS, not to rant and rave about how much I won. The word LARGE was used as a confidence indicator as many here understand. 

And yes, I say post tickets because even in this game, I don't believe anyone would seriously lay 27 points for more than $10. No one is that stupid. I'll give the masses credit for that at least.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by punjabi:

Yeah you know what?  I really have no idea what's going to happen in this game.  My guess on the score was just off the top of my head.  I see Jags getting blown out but I'm not sure by how much.  27 points or not, I'm not going against the Denver offense especially at home. 

Anyways, wish you luck. I'll agree with you on one thing.  27pts in the NFL?  Nobody can blame one for taking the points. 

 You should take the points. It's the easiest game on the slate which is why I wrote about it.
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by lakers9:

I just logged onto my locals site, saw that denver is now -30. i just put another half unit on the jags +30. haha, i know im gonna regret it tomorrow, its just too many points to resist......GL scal!
Lead me to that site. I'll gladly take another field goal on 27. G l a d l y.....
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Raziel1312:

Also on the Jags.

If you want to add one more reason to the list it's Jon Fox's coaching style. Trust me, as a Panthers fan who had to watch him coach for years, if the Broncos are up by 17 in the 2nd half he will put the backups in and try and run the clock down.

 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by noobcapper4:

STRAIGHT BETOct 13525.00 USD / 500.00 USD

Straight bet on what??????
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by Hartsvillehyena:

Scalbrine have you WATCHED Jacksonville this year bro?? Not sure would be so confident if you have. I would say that 28 line is accurate

It's not. It's ludicrous. 

Remember Jacksonville was only getting 19.5 at the most impossible away game in NFL history....Now we tack on another TD to go to Denver? What? Does anyone realize they were a few minutes from a legitimate cover last week against the Rams in an away game???
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Has Denver played their backups at all?  How many series has Osweiler even played?  Peyton plays all but one or two series in any blowout game, this will be no different so don't try and say that the Denver 2nd string will be playing an entire half.  They could easily get 1 or 2 D/ST td's and want to keep the starting offense out there to keep sharp.  Banking on Denver playing backups is a horrible idea

Who is banking on Denver backups man? That is one of seven points in the OP of which I've said repeatedly in this thread you only need 2 or 3 of to confidently take the biggest spread in the history of the NFL. The STRONGEST point is the game in Indy next week, not the backup argument. And yes, Brock has seen action this year in one game.
 
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Posted: #88
love your reasons...line just dropped to 27.  As soon as it hit 28 again, i will slap.  Perhaps, i will buy 1.5 points and slap my biggest bet ever.

Stty dallas could put up 48 points on offense, i only need jax to score 16 points.
 
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Posted: #89
three game tease is jax plus 37 or over 43, washington plus15.5 and seatle minus 2 at home.
 
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Posted: #90
Scalabrine, best of luck man.  Appreciate the write up.
 
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Posted: #91
When was the last NFL spread over 20+ points? 

I know Indy was an underdog at Baltimore by 20 in 2011, and 21 in New England. Pretty sure Indy covered both, the Balt game had a backdoor TD on the last play of regulation.
 
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Posted: #92
One of the best write ups I've seen yet. Hope this thread goes in the right direction after tomorrow! Good luck!
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by Rookieguru:

love your reasons...line just dropped to 27.  As soon as it hit 28 again, i will slap.  Perhaps, i will buy 1.5 points and slap my biggest bet ever.

Stty dallas could put up 48 points on offense, i only need jax to score 16 points.

Dude, do not buy 1.5 points on 27!!!! Holy Moly. Look for a game with 3/3.5 if you MUST buy points, otherwise 27 is safe for the taking.
 
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Posted: #94
the write up was great scal.....I was on jax first thing Monday.....g.lyou lookin at any other plays?
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner18:

three game tease is jax plus 37 or over 43, washington plus15.5 and seatle minus 2 at home.
Sounds fine with me in terms of Jax. A sweetheart tease can bring the Jax line to FORTY!
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:

Scalabrine, best of luck man.  Appreciate the write up.
No problem 
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by RexR:

When was the last NFL spread over 20+ points? 

I know Indy was an underdog at Baltimore by 20 in 2011, and 21 in New England. Pretty sure Indy covered both, the Balt game had a backdoor TD on the last play of regulation.

Three games during the 2007 season vs. NE. NE failed to cover all three.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by NOmoose:

One of the best write ups I've seen yet. Hope this thread goes in the right direction after tomorrow! Good luck!
 So do I!
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by phogetaboutit:

the write up was great scal.....I was on jax first thing Monday.....g.lyou lookin at any other plays?
Good for you!

Yes, I am looking at Pitt/Jets but I only post one pick a week 95% of the time so I'm not posting it. 
 
 
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Posted: #100
49 -14 Denver
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