Posted:
#1
Greetings all, happy to be back for another season of pucks! I'm going to be keeping track of my picks here this season with an emphasis on selectivity and hopefully maximizing my ROI, and I hope that by logging everything here it will keep me accountable and give me an accurate statement of my results.
A little background, I grew up playing and watching hockey since before I can even remember. I've always had a strong interest in math, stocks, and value, and began trying to pick games from about the age of 17 (I'm 30 now). I follow pretty much any and all sports and even make a few picks in others just to have a bit of action, but for me hockey's just my jam. I'd like to think I know the teams, the players, the situations, the nuances of the game...I just love it all!
About my picks and philosophy, I generally do "ok" overall. I've noticed the last few seasons I usually start out quite well the first month of the season (knock on wood) with pretty good reads on teams, and then getting into to November turns into a bit of a slump. Probably the oddsmakers get a better feel, adjust the lines, and it takes me a little while to re-adjust myself to their adjustments (could I say "adjust" a few more times lol). Getting into December around the quarter mark of the season when teams have each played around 20 games I started working on a system last year and have quite a bit of data so I'm excited to see what I can do with that this season. Then come playoffs is money time for me...I seem to be quite successful and have a knack for figuring out how series' will go. I have usually also built myself a mildly complex web of Cup/Conf. futures bets that I manage to hedge out of in profitable ways. But for the regular season at least, that's where I'm hoping a focus on selectiveness rather than forcing a play or playing too many "leans" just for the action, will lead to a strong return.
A few general specifics (oxymoron I know):
-I will probably only play about 5 games per week depending.
-I use 3 sports books (Bookmaker, bet365, Sportsinteraction) where my lines will come from.
-I usually use decimal odds for math purposes but will try to include both as I know most others use +/-.
-I bet $200 straight per game no matter +/- odds.
-most of my picks will be ML. My philosophy is that winning the game is the only thing the team is actually trying to do, and will try to accomplish, so don't fight it. With that said I won't discriminate from a total, PL, regulation bet, team total if I feel there is value to be had.
-if I lose an "official" play I won't come on here claiming I had 2 other "top secret personal" plays that I won to make it a profitable night!
Sorry for the long intro, props if you made it all the way through. Most of all, hope it's an enjoyable and prosperous season for all!
0
that was pretty much a dream scenario...Matthews making history with 4 goals in his debut, Toronto getting a point, and Ottawa taking the cash! 
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