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Another year older...and hopefully wiser!

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Posted: #26
SJ looks good 
 
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Posted: #27
Adding another play tonight...had my eye on it but wanted to wait and see the listed starters in net today.  Glad I waited as the line has gotten a little better making Colorado a slight home dog tonight!

Colorado ML, 2.05/+105 (bookmaker)

The Avs open their season at home tonight full of promise and hoping to fulfill some of the potential they flashed 3 seasons ago during their 112 point Central division winning season in Patrick Roy's first year behind the bench.  They struggled in the two seasons that followed recording just 90 and 82 points respectively but they were still a young team that probably needed a bit more stability behind the bench than Roy's emotional style could offer.  With an average age of 28.4 the Avs roster this year seems like a healthy blend of "experienced youth" and veterans as most of their top end talent (Mackinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie) have been around for a few years now and about to enter their prime.

This season also brings the debut of head coach Jared Bednar who led Lake Erie to the Calder Cup in the AHL last year.  He's another young, dynamic coach that will have the pulse of the dressing room.  I believe he will also bring that much needed stability that was lacking with Roy behind the bench.  As a career minor leaguer Bednar was an old school, hard-nosed stay-at-home defenceman and also attended The Citadel (military college in South Carolina) for his education.  I expect the Avs to match that persona this year playing tough but well disciplined to not take too many bad penalties.  It's also been reported that his system is very simple and easy to adopt...basically they want to limit the amount of D to D passing and push the puck up the ice as quickly as possible to their forwards hopefully capitalizing on on of their best assets, SPEED!  The Avs will be aggressive this year and this style seems to be fairly popular with the team already.  Hate putting too much stock in preseason results but the Avs led the league with a 6-0 record, outscoring teams 16-5 and maintaining a 100% PK.

I wanted to see who was starting in net for Dallas before locking this one in.  As of writing this Niemi is "likely" and the Avs will go with Varlamov as expected who was lights out in the preseason.  I like this play with Niemi in net, and consider it an extra bonus if Lehtonen starts for Dallas.  Excited to see this Avs team in real action!  Good luck!

 
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Posted: #28
Like Col at home too 
 
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Posted: #29
Thanks misters!

Haha where was this offence from NJ the other night!

Was considering a play on Boston ML earlier today, which would have been more of a fade Freddie Andersen play until he puts together a good game.  It was at 2.05/+105 which had me interested but then my new dog threw up all over himself and I only saw it at 1.95/-105 before gamete so I held off.  Maybe for the best...Thanks Chico lol! 
 
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Posted: #30
Got the Sharks, now hoping the Avs come through after going down 2 early.  Perfect example of why preseason means jack all...6-0 record and 100% PK, allow a PP goal less than 1 minute into regular season LOL!

Back in it at 2-2 though, Joey Colborne keeping us alive with possibly one of the ugliest goals ever!
 
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Posted: #31
Exciting first Saturday night of the season and a 2-0 night for me!  That Avs game went wild!

San Jose ML $200 x 1.77 = $353.85
Colorado ML $200 x 2.05 = $410.00

Record: 3-1
Risk:     $800
Return: $1123.85
ROI:      40.5%

Slow day with only 3 games on the board...no plays for me.  If I had to though I would lean Anaheim, and I would severely caution everyone about loading up on the Oilers as it seems everyone and their brother is on them tonight.  They've scored a lot of goals so far but I don't think they're as good as everyone is probably thinking, and I don't think Buffalo's as bad as everyone thinks...can't argue that the Oil are exciting to watch though!  BOL whatever you do today!


 
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Posted: #32
good day yesterday
 
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Posted: #33
Thanks stewtree...hope you made some coin too!


 
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Posted: #34
Changing my tune today...When I first saw the lines the Sabres were priced at +155.  Since this morning that line has shot up to +190 at sportsinteraction and as I was already leaning Buffalo it became just too much value to pass up!

Buffalo ML, 2.90/+190 (sportsinteraction)

This might be the game where I have to eat a ton of crow later tonight but as I said in an earlier post, everyone in the world is on the Oilers today and I just don't see it.  This isn't a "fade the public" angle or any kind of that nonsense...I generally think that stuff is completely irrelevant in hockey.  I just simply don't think Edmonton is as good as everyone thinks, and Buffalo as bad as everyone thinks.  They lost 4-1 to Montreal in their opener but when you look closer they outshot, out hit, and won 61% of face-offs.  It really wasn't as one-sided as the final score looks, Robin Lehner just struggled allowing 4 goals on 24 shots.  For those who don't know much about Lehner (don't get a lot of exposure playing in Buffalo), he has a ton of raw talent and has been a top goaltending prospect that has been brought along slowly (the right way) and finally getting a true shot to be #1 on an up and coming Sabres team.  I think he'll bounce back with a strong performance tonight.  I know Eichel is out, and E. Kane now too, but Okposo should be back in the lineup tonight to help with a few of those injury woes.

On the flip side we have the Oilers who everyone seems sold on already.  Sure they've lit the lamp 12 (7 and 5) times in their first 2 games (2 empty netters) which is a lot of goals but it's not like they were dominant 7-1 or 5-0 wins...they also allowed 7 goals and were outshot in both games by the Flames.  In reality they were the beneficiaries of some pretty below average goaltending by Elliott.  I think this is the perfect spot to pump the brakes and remember that the Oilers were not even close to a playoff team last year (2nd last with 70 points) and still struggle to keep the puck out of their own net as well, despite their offensive firepower.

I'm not saying the Oilers can't win or won't win this game (and maybe it turns out that they really are that good), just that scoring loads of goals and being exciting to watch does not always equate to winning.  I peg this game at more of a coin-flip and while I don't like to make a habit of picking coin-flips (even at slightly + money), getting nearly 2 to 1 on your money is too much value to turn down.  I'll have my popcorn ready for this one!! 
 
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Posted: #35
dcp I like them to 

Draw No Bet Buffalo Sabres @ +163

GL Chico 
 
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Posted: #36
Awesome misters!  The draw no bet is a great option too...takes the stress out of OT if it gets there.

And sorry, I wasn't calling you Chico if that's what you thought...that's my dog's name LOL!  Should be a beauty tonight!
 
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Posted: #37
haha no I thought Chico was your name
 
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Posted: #38
Nice work dcp1985!!!
 
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Posted: #39
Very nice weekend,, great start to the season.
 
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Posted: #40
Hi Sir,

Can't help but admire how you capped games in hockey? Any leans for today Sir? 
 
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Posted: #41
Great start! 
 
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Posted: #42
Your slammin it dude

bol tonight dcp1985
 
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Posted: #43
Buffalo ML $200 x 2.90 = $580

Record:  4-1
Risk:     $1000
Return: $1703.85
ROI:        70.3%

Nice hit with the sabres last night...always nice to get one of those under your belt early in the year!

Cheers fellas (Krisamons, PurpleFrog, Dgambler, override365) thanks for the kind words and support!

misters, haha yeah I thought there might've been some confusion...no worries.

DGambler, appreciate the respect...I'm still a young guy though (I hope anyway), no need to call me sir!
 
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Posted: #44
Four games on the board tonight...I know I said this yesterday then changed my mind, but no official plays for me tonight.  I'll give my quick thoughts on each game as DGambler requested.

SJ/NYR - I've had a hard time figuring out the Rangers the last couple years.  Sometimes I look at them and think they should be great and they disappoint...other times I look at them and think they're really not that good and then they win.  Much like SJ road record last year, NYR always plays great at home (Tied 2nd last year at 27-10-4).  I would lean SJ, but it's a no play especially since they've become a road fave this morning.

Col/Pit - I hate betting against really good teams unless I have a clear cut edge somehow, and we're only 2 games into the season so there aren't any.  As much as I think the Avs will be good this year I think Pittsburgh will be great again as well.  If I wanted to place a bet just for action I'd take the Avs at a nice dog price, but again not confident in betting against a great team like the Pens.

Ott/Det - The Sens are 2-0 and maybe a bit fortunate to be there after 2 OT wins, while the Red Wings are 0-2.  Doesn't really mean anything at this point in the season.  I would go with Detroit as the winner but not a bet for me with the juice on them.  I like this game to go over 5.5 as both teams have had sub-standard goaltending so far but it's early in the season and stuff like that can do a 180 in an instant.  

Bos/Wpg - No lean either way...both teams are 1-1 and have had a game that is somewhat impressive, and one that was not.  I guess we'll see which one shows up tonight.

Overall to me, it's just a night where there's not much to choose between the matchups.  I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the games (will also be focused on the Jays game LOL)!  Tonight is an information night for me.  BOL everyone!
 
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Posted: #45
Thanks moho!
 
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Posted: #46
Great night of hockey last night even with no plays!  Jays on the other hand wasn't so great haha...stick a fork in them.

Got a play already locked in tonight!

Minnesota ML, 1.69/-145 (sportsinteraction)

Ever since the acquisition of Parise and Suter a few years ago in free agency I've been waiting for this Wild team to live up to the potential that they've had on paper.  They never have but I think that could change this year for a reason that not many people probably think.  The reason is new coach Bruce Boudreau who might be one of the most underrated coaches in the league and gets a bad rap for not quite putting it together in the playoffs, and his almost caricature-esque appearance in the first 24/7 special for the Pens/Caps outdoor game.  Let's face it, it's easy to make fun of a short bald guy swearing like a hillbilly!  But back to hockey, Boudreau's teams regularly rank near the top in offense and usually dominate the scoring chances.  This was a clear trend as Washington's control over scoring chances decreased the moment he left, and Anaheim's increased the moment he took over from Randy Carlyle.  Also, how's this for consistency...in 8 of the 9 years Boudreau has been a coach in the NHL his teams have won the division title, with the 1 year he didn't being the year Washington struggled and fired him.  Obviously this hasn't translated into playoff success which is why I think he doesn't get much credit.  Almost makes me wish I'd taken a Wild to win division future at 18-1 when I saw it in September.

The identity of the LA Kings in recent years has been one of defence and strong possession.  I feel like this team has been in a very slight decline the last couple seasons and is no longer "Cup quality".  I see them being about average and middle of the pack this year.  It's too early to tell with only 2 games in the books but LA has been outshot in both (61-47 total) possibly signalling the drop in their usually strong possession play, but again could be too early to tell.  Add to all of this the backbone of their team Jonathan Quick going down in the 1st game of the season with what looks like a longterm injury, leaving the starting duties to Jeff Zatkoff.

Was hoping for a better line, it's a lot of juice to lay but I think the combination of a re-energized offensive-minded Minnesota team and career backup Zatkoff carrying the burden of his team's season make this a worthwhile play!  As always BOL, and I might have 1 more when all the lines are out.
 
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Posted: #47
As promised another play for the night...just needed the line to come out and make sure it had the value I thought it would.

Arizona ML, 2.15/+115 (sportsinteraction)

Ottawa closes out a really tough opening week for them playing their 4th game in 7 night.  They are 2-1 after a couple OT wins and then a demoralizing 5-1 loss in Detroit last night and had to travel back to Ottawa for tonight's game against the Coyotes.  Head coach Guy Boucher is known for his structural play but obviously there could be hiccups early on this season as the team tries to adopt the new system, and they have allowed 12 goals in the first 3 games behind some sub-par goaltending.  It's just a bad scheduling spot for the Sens.

Arizona surprised a lot of people last season in what many people thought would be a total rebuilding year.  They struggled mightily on the road with a record of 13-24-4, good for last in the league tied with Edmonton.  Some of that can probably be chalked up to the fact that they were an extremely young and inexperienced squad and it's just tougher to play in hostile environments.  They are still a very young team, average age 26.3 which is 5th youngest in the league but keep in mind that avg. # is skewed higher by 40 year old Shane Doan and 35 year old Radim Vrbata, who's trying to revive his career back in the place where he had his best producing years after struggling in Vancouver for a couple seasons.  On paper 6/18 skaters are under the age of 22, and 8/18 are under 24 (with one skater at 24.2), and this doesn't include 19 yr. old Dylan Strome if/when he gets into the lineup.  Despite this youth though they are much more experienced this year as a lot of those young guys have that 1st year of experience under their belts (only 2 forwards in their 1st professional season and 1 D, standout draft pick Jakob Chychrun).  Savy coach Dave Tippett knows the key to the playoffs will be improving that road record where they left a ton of points on the table last year, and I think they will be keying on that all year.  No better time to start than tonight in Ottawa!  Good luck!


 
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Posted: #48
Well in the time I did my write-ups the odds on Minny have gotten much better, 1.77/-130.  Probably because the confirmation of Darcy Kuemper for the Wild.  Doesn't change anything, still like the play, Dubnyk and Kuemper are pretty much interchangeable quality-wise in my opinion, but obviously get the better odds if you haven't locked in already!
 
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Posted: #49
MIN  

GL dcp
 
 
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1-1 night yesterday...Minny game went pretty much as expected with Zatkoff being chased after 5 goals, a bit of bad luck in the Arizona game with Smith going down injured early in the 3rd.  They were down 3-2 at the time anyway, but that pretty much spelled the end as Domingue allowed 2 quick ones in replacement making it 5-2.  But a win's a win and a loss is a loss...disappointed about the line we got with the Wild as it climbed as high as 1.83/-120 by gametime.   A losing night regardless but could have lost a little less.

Minnesota $200 x 1.69 = $337.93
Arizona-$200

Record:  5-2
Risk:     $1400
Return: $2041.78
ROI:        45.8%

Two games tonight, no plays for me.

Tor/Wpg - Would lean Toronto but the line is not good enough (2.15/+115 right now) for it to be a play as of now.  And I'd be lying if I said it wasn't a little bit of a homer pick!

Det/NYR - The Rangers look good to start the season and as usual, especially strong at home.  My one concern, and diehard Ranger fans will be upset with me, is Henrik Lundqvist.  He's consistently been an elite goaltender for a number of years but I feel like age is beginning to creep up a bit on him.  I don't think his game is necessarily in decline but just that it might take him a bit more time at the start of each season to shake of the rust and perform like he can.  He's allowed 26 goals on 247 shots between the World Cup (pre and tourney), NHL preseason, and 1st regular season game combined for a sv% below .900.  Was considering playing the Rangers in regulation at even money (juice on the ML just too much) but can't pull the trigger until Lundqvist hits his groove.

BOL to all on any plays tonight!


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