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BARTENDER'S PICKS 12/3-12/9

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Posted: #51

let's go planes peace stay flat bartenderan_cheers

 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by NYBartender:

2017-18 Overall 272-227 +$5517.00 2018-19 Overall 63-62 +$454.00 12/3-12/9 8-6 +$413.00 This whole job thing is making it hard to gamble! I’m late but I must post lol! Gonna roll with WIN -1 ½ +125 here as The Jets have already played the injury ravaged Blues 3 times this season and have won all three meetings. They’ve scored no less than 5 goals in each contest winning games 5-1, 5-4 and 8-4. Jake Allen, who is projected to start has gotten mauled thus far by Winnipeg compiling an .833 Save% and 4.92 GAA in three appearances. That plus the fact the Jets offense has been on fire of late also helps. Winnipeg is 5-1 in their last 6 and have scored 28 GF (4.66). Hot offense versus a goalie they’ve owned in the early going also means TT over 3 ½ -115

This is the kind of sh*t that infuriates me. Dude gets bombed time and time again then pitches a shut out. 

Stop. an_arsed

 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by livin2gamble:

let's go planes  stay flat bartender

The Winnipeg offense stayed flat lol!

 
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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by SoCo:

You should keep in mind that the last time these two played, yes, the ducks won, but, Carolina out-played and out-shot them 34-29. Also, the Ducks are 1-6 in the last seven in a game following a home win.

34-29 isn't much of a discrepancy of shots and it was a road game. That said, ya never know. And as I type this Canes just scored...twice. Hilarious. F you lol

 
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Posted: #55

Quote Originally Posted by SoCo:

You should keep in mind that the last time these two played, yes, the ducks won, but, Carolina out-played and out-shot them 34-29. Also, the Ducks are 1-6 in the last seven in a game following a home win.

You bad luck mofo lol You just mushed both those bets as I was typing a reply to you.

 
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Posted: #56

WIN -1 1/2 +125 an_burningbag

WIN TT over 3 1/2 -115 an_burningbag

ANA +103 an_burningbag

CAR TT under 2 1/2 -115 an_burningbag

Today: 0-4 mauled -$430.00

 
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Posted: #57

2017-18 Overall 272-227 +$5517.00

2018-19 Overall 63-66 +$24.00

12/3-12/9 8-10 -$17.00

So much for that nice start to the week!

I had an original lean on the Knights due to their recent run which I foreshadowed weeks ago when I said every underlying metric shows a team that should start winning games but the talk is they want to start Subban today b/c Fleury has started 8-straight and they’d rather use him against Dallas Sunday which makes this a no-play. Cannot trust Subban to get you a win this year even with the hot play of Vegas in front of him. That said, Fleury is confirmed as I wrote this lol. Coach says something one day, does the opposite the next. VGK -146 because despite the Kings locker room talk, they’re simply not very good.

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #58
Agree with you and with almost everyone on this forum  Good luck 
 
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Posted: #59

Almost went with Philly today as I had mentioned day or so ago that Buffalo was due for a real stinker of a game. I was a game off on that guess. I like them to bounce back and break this streak at home Tuesday against the traveling Kings. Missed opportunity for me.

Anyway, My Blueshirts do not travel well. The Panthers are one of those high Corsi% teams that are being held back by poor goaltending. Luongo has been the poster child for unpredictability this year—going through a strong start, then getting bombed 4-5 straight, to shutting out Boston then giving up 4. No consistency. What is consistent is the Rangers being a top 5 team in giving up shot opportunities and being bottom three in possession metrics. They’re the opposite of Florida in that their goaltending has helped hide those poor facets of play to a degree…except on the road where they’re 3-8-2. Rangers simply don’t create enough so going to roll the dice with the home team here FLA -1/2 -125

Seven goals are a lot and Vegas has finally had enough of handing out free candy to betters for these Ottawa games, but the truth is it’s a bet that still has to be taken so PIT/OTT over 7 +110 is the continued play. I mentioned their overs as being match-up proof until they stop hitting so gotta put my money where my mouth is. The over for all Ottawa games is now 21-6-2 for the season which means the over bet only loses 20.68% of the time. Let’s hope the trend continues.

And now its off to work yet again. Hopefully I don't come home with a goose egg like last night. an_cheers

 
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Posted: #60

Quote Originally Posted by Krisamons:

Agree with you and with almost everyone on this forum  Good luck

More people betting it doesn't mean its more apt to be a loser. Is what it is! Good luck tonight! an_cheers

 
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Posted: #61

VGK -146 an_burningbag

FLA -1/2 -125 an_burningbag

PIT/OTT over 7 +110 an_burningbag

Today: Back to being fade material as my week has fallen to shit 0-3 -$371.00

 
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Posted: #62

My two unplayed leans both hit while the three I went with all lost an_brick

 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by NYBartender:

My two unplayed leans both hit while the three I went with all lost an_brick


hang tough your writeups and picks were working just before
 
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Posted: #64
BOL
 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by kennykid:

BOL

Thanks!

 
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Posted: #66
I'm in the same boat lately, keep grinding buddy. 



 
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Posted: #67

Quote Originally Posted by VANBUCK:

I'm in the same boat lately, keep grinding buddy.

The boat has a hole in it, haha! an_cheers

 
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Posted: #68
2017-18 Overall 272-227 +$5517.00
2018-19 Overall 63-69 -$347.00
12/3-12/9 8-13 -$388.00
Well, my week really turned to sh*t fast. I proclaim this either Bounce-back Sunday or Early Retirement Sunday. Hate having a big card when I’m in a rut but kept finding what seemed like good sides.
WIN -1 ½ +120 We’ll start with Winnipeg who found themselves cruising along as well as the offense. They had won 4-straight and 5 of 6 while scoring 28 goals (4.66) before somehow being shut out on home ice by Jake Allen and the Blues. I like betting strong offenses and teams the game after a shut-out loss. Connor Hellebuyck has yet to find the form that made him a Vezina contender last season but in 3 starts this December he does own a .932 Save% and 1.64 GAA so hopefully it’s a run he continues here. Good news for this bet is the fact that Philly looks to be turning to Michael Neuvirth who allowed 6 goals in his lone start earlier this year. He’ll contend with the Jets 4 ranked PP unit which is firing at a 27.3% clip which matches up with Philly’s 29 ranked PK unit. This will also be the Flyers 3 game in 4 nights as they run the gamut through Canada on this 5-game road trip.
WIN TT O 3 ½ -125 see above
 
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BOS/OTT over 6 ½ -101 Ottawa overs have been a boon all season and Vegas responded by pushing their total to 7 their last game out and the Pens and Sens obliged to a 2-1 OT final. The shots and attempts were there but both DeSmith and Anderson had strong games and Ottawa blocked another 27 shots. The game flow was there, just didn’t go over better’s way. So now the over stands at 21-7-2 in Senators games this season which means the over bet loses only 23.3% of the time. Other things to consider here is the fact that the over has not lost in consecutive games yet this season for Ottawa and both teams are playing their 3 game in four nights. A cherry on top here is the projected start of Miracle Mike McKenna who sports an abysmal .879 Save% and 4.66 GAA.
MON/CHI over 6 -115 You might not think it when looking at them, but both these teams sit in the top 6 in shot creation (Montreal at #4 and Chicago at #6) with Chicago also sitting top 6 in shot creation allowed which means it’s a wide open game with them. Montreal also is under the radar scoring 3.13 GF per game which ranks them at 13 in the league—not so terrible. Doing themselves no extra favors, The Blackhawks also own the 30 ranked PK unit and will start Corey Crawford in net, who is on a personal 7-game losing streak. During that stretch, Crawford holds an .868 Save% and 4.63 GAA. He’ll match up with Carey Price who has been inconsistent this year and holds a mediocre .900 Save% and 2.96 GAA.
MON -115 Was hoping for some road dog money here, but this shows just how bad Chicago has been. This is a fade on the Blackhawks. Where Montreal has won 3 of 4, the Hawks are on a 3-14-3 run which means they’ve only won 3 of their last 20 games and also own the league worst goal differential at -30!!
 
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Posted: #70
DAL +127 About to go against all my pro-Vegas talk recently. The Knights decided to use Fleury on the road against L.A. last night probably because they hated the idea of Subban on the road…against anyone. So, we get him here at home and thus far this season he owns an .859 Save% and 4.02 GAA. He’s given up 18 goals in his four starts—all losses. I like Vegas but have to fade Subban and with Vegas playing their 3 game in four nights with him backstopping them, I like it even more. Dallas has won 4-straight and split their recent 4-game road trip with both losses being by one-goal. Ben Bishop gets the nod here and he’s one f the league leaders in Save% at .927 and also in GAA at 2.23 so the goaltending matchup favors Dallas in a huge way here. As extra incentive on Bishop, in his last six road appearances, he’s won 4 of 5 with a .938 Save% and 1.95 GAA.
ANA -105 Back to the Ducks at home, I go. Anaheim is 8-4-5 at home whereas New Jersey is 3-10-1 on the road. I don’t love the Ducks as a team, but the splits and trends favor them here as they have won 7 of 9 and the Devils come in losers of 8 of their last 10. Goaltending also heavily favors Anaheim here as John Gibson is 7-2 on home ice with a .929 Save% and 2.24 GAA. This information could be inaccurate as I’m writing this at 3am but the projection looks like Cory Schneider might get the call here, but they’ve had two days off, so I assume it will be Kinkaid. If it is Schneider then he is 0-5 on the road with an .863 Save% and 4.28 GAA and is fade material.
Please wait on all goalie confirmations. I’m posting these write-ups because I go to work for Sunday football each week so I may not be able to access my Surface behind the bar if I’m too busy. an_cheers
 
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Posted: #71

Well, just got home. Hope people didn't tail blindly and waited on confirmations.

DAL & ANA are both no plays with Gibson taking the seat for Ryan Miller and Vegas deciding not to start Subban and to give Fleury zero rest.

WIN -1 1/2 +120 moneybag

WIN TT O 3 1/2 -125 moneybag

BOS/OTT over 6 1/2 -101 an_burningbag

MON/CHI over 6 -115 an_burningbag

MON -115 moneybag

Today: 3-2 +$104.00

 
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Posted: #72

After today my posted record is:

2018-19 Overall 66-71 -$243.00

However, due to my work schedule I've missed out on posting 5 plays, of course all of which won (which may have me thinking posting is bad luck lol).

1 - 11/3 OTT/BUF over 6 1/2

2 - 11/21 The additional quarter unit round robin that I added to the posted parlay that paid out $900.00

3 - 11/13 When San Jose took a 3-0 first period lead on Nashville, I immediately bet Nashville -1/2 +155 to win the 2nd period at 250/387

4 - 11/14 The very next day I hit a quarter unit puck-line action reverse on WIN & VGK that paid out $166.00

5 - 12/9 WIN -1/2 -145 for one unit so $100.00 (this is a bet as well as the TT and puckline I should have pounded so regretful)

That said, personally my record is:

2018-19 Overall 71-71 +$1410

Doing better than things may seem on the surface here. BUT I'd still like to get my posted record in better shape. Just a matter of pride and this week sucked!

Anyway, hope everyone had a profitable week! I keep getting bailed out by football.

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #73

Next week give me your football picks. 

Lol. 

Every week. I still can't crack the code. 

Glad to see you're not losing. 

NBA NHL MLB
 
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by mountaincaribou:

Next week give me your football picks.  Lol.  Every week. I still can't crack the code.  Glad to see you're not losing.

Lol ok. Not for nothing but follow LeagueCapper in the NFL forum. I think he had a slower Sunday than normal but he's hitting nearly 70% for the year through almost 150 picks

Today I had GB -3, DAL -3 1/2, BAL +7, LAR/CHI under 50, INDY +4 (took INDY ML +180 also for half unit b/c LC was on it also)

Lost with NE -6.5, NYG/WASH under 41 

 
 
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Posted: #75

He was 93-47 for +79 units before today. Amazing season by him.

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