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NHL Program Plays

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Covers Rehab
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Posted: #1
Ive been posting these in the NBA forum, here at covers, along with the nba plays in the calendar year 2015..

2015 NHL record
28-17 (+19.80 units)
62.22% Winners
(-107) avg juice
each for 2 units

The entire 2015 season has been really good, didnt post the first half however.. As u can see we are hitting over 62% against an average (-107) line.. 

Here are thursdays plays

Montreal (-145) 2 units NHL
Chicago (-125) 2 units NHL
Stl. Blues (-115) 2 units NHL
Detroit (+110) 2 units NHL

Little pricey today in the lines but the overall juice is in line at (-107).. As long as we stay around (-110), i dont worry much about it..

Our NHL and MLB programs are very similar as we project a win percentage on each game, as well as a Value rating on each selection.. Most plays are made when we have a win percentage over 60% with a positive Value rating...

Lets look at tonights numbers

Van 65% (-10.60) which indicates a very good chance for Vancouver to win (65%) but absolutely no Value in making this play..

Montreal 65% (+14.25) which indicates a very good chance for Montreal to win (65%) and with a positive Value rating, thus this is a play for us tonight..

Remainder of card..

NYR No line posted
Tor No line posted
Chi 64% (+19.00)
Stl 62% (+18.30)
Nash 60% (-2.00)
LA NL posted yet
Det 62% (+29.20)

I dont have time right now to wait on the 3 lines to be posted but from my numbers, i do not anticipate another play tonight... 

This program tells me alot, the value rating will keep me off the big juice selections, most times.. It will also show u the underdogs with a good chance of winning, i can also look at an overall ranking which is very good when looking at future wagers.. We have small bets on Mont and NYR at some very good numbers to win the Cup but my boards will change fast, from day to day at times.. Whats a play today may not be a play a week from now..

ive been running this program successfully for almost 3 years now but the Value rating is a new addition this season and thus far has performerd very well.. The win %%% is still there and the juice has been cut drastically.. Cant wait to use this model for the MLB season..

Good Luck with your wagers today..

MITM (FS)
 
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Posted: #2
This sounds amazing. And i like it even more because my picks match up to yours as well. Care to share how you get the Value ratings?
 
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Posted: #3
The value ratings are mostly based on the lines.. The key is the win percentage.. I must play on the team that the program selects, i cant go the other way.. 
 
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Posted: #4
Thank u for sharing and may good fortune be with ya bud


 
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Posted: #5
im on Mon as well lets ride.
 
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Posted: #6
Ya great info man muxh appriciated !
 
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Posted: #7
Thanks! All the best with your bets, I like what i see so far
 
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Posted: #8
.
  Good stuff, MITM!
 
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Posted: #9
Thx guys

Adding to Thursdays card

Toronto -110 2 units NHL

Here are the numbers on the 3 games that I did not list earlier.  

Tor 60% +16.00
Nyr 68% -13.50
LA 66% -10.50

I look for plays that are at a 60% win rate or higher but they must have a positive expected value rating.  

That's why I added Tor but not the Kings or Rangers.. Any questions, I'll answer what I can.  

MITM (FS)
 
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Posted: #10
You did post in the first half of the season
 
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Posted: #11
[Quote: Originally Posted by rivermonsterz]You did post in the first half of the season[/Quote
That's correct sir
 
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Posted: #12
Very little, not daily. Daily in NBA forum in 2015. 
 
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Posted: #13
It's no big deal brah good luck
 
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Posted: #14
Decent performance on Thursday night. 


 
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Posted: #15
keep up the good work, def interested in your best plays for tmmrw 

BOL 
 
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Posted: #16
2015 Record
33-17 (+30.00 units)
66% Winners
(-107) avg juice
each for 2 units

All plays have been posted in nba forum here for the calendar year 2015, with the NBA plays, if u want to see that..

Todays Plays

Wash (-135) 2 units NHL

Ana (-110) 2 units NHL



Todays NHL numbers

Wash 60% +6.00
Bos 52% -12.80
NYI 57% -18.25
TB 55% -8.10
Col 53% +13.95
Ana 61% +18.20


Pretty straight forward, play the ones that are 60% win projected with a positive Value rating.. If my work is correct our MLB program should work the same way.. Good Luck with your wagers

MITM (FS)
 
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Posted: #17
Thanks for your share MITM. Its there any other way I can follow your picks? I'm not used to this covers app.
 
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Posted: #18
Wunderbar
 
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Posted: #19
Been following this guy in the NBA forum when he first started posting.  Went 11-0 initially and got me into NHL betting.

Solid picks & always posts early.
 
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Posted: #20
Hey MITM, 

Great system man. I sent you a friend request, I was wondering about your program's model. As I see it, and correct me if I am wrong, your % are the respective team's chance to win the game and the +/- is the expected return on the team, should they win. Is there anything I have interpreted incorrectly or failed to consider?

Thanks! 
 
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Posted: #21
BOL &THANKS!!!
 
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Posted: #22
Great job, thanks for the 5-0.   A quick question without going into your program/formula.  How much does a line move before it becomes a "no play"?  i.e. yesterday you had St. Louis at -115 my book had it at -140 by game time.  Would a 25 line move made this a "no play"? 
 
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Posted: #23
steelersbet, that is basically correct, the 2nd number is a value rating and i must have a positive number there for a play..

Badboyz, I post and play the games very early each morning for the most part.. Yesterday i believe i had the Blues at over a 60% chance to win with a positive value.. The line i had was (-115) and it would have still been a play at (-140) but at about (-165) it would have switched to negative value and thus would have been a no play.. The value rating will keep me off the expensive favorites for the most part.. 

Good Luck tonight guys..

FS
 
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Posted: #24
MITM:

My guy has Caps at -148 and Ducks at -124.  Still plays at those prices?  Thanks bud
 
 
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Posted: #25
yeah but just barely on the caps.. wouldnt go past (-150), gets into negative value at that point on this one..anaheim is ok..
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