In reference to your Edge plays being 4% or better to play, is this only prior to puck drop or is this at any point the line dictates a 4% or better edge? For instance Vegas tomorrow night is currently 5.3% based on the -165 line I am currently seeing. Just curious when you decide to play them or not. Interesting stuff.
"You either quit or keep going. They both hurt."
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@peelpub94
In reference to your Edge plays being 4% or better to play, is this only prior to puck drop or is this at any point the line dictates a 4% or better edge? For instance Vegas tomorrow night is currently 5.3% based on the -165 line I am currently seeing. Just curious when you decide to play them or not. Interesting stuff.
Normally any time. There are times when you wait for better because you understand the betting market. And know the line will come down throughout the day because public perception will be on the other side for various reasons. But that rarely happens with opening favorites.
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@Kmoore307
Normally any time. There are times when you wait for better because you understand the betting market. And know the line will come down throughout the day because public perception will be on the other side for various reasons. But that rarely happens with opening favorites.
Then there are also lines like Boston, which probably won't get any cheaper than -210 or -205 tomorrow other than if there's a big injury report. 77% (prior to the refresh on moneypuck) but even still, that's 8% edge.. when projections refresh it usually won't be more than 3-4% either way. So this is a game I'm looking at for regulation or puck line right now.
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@Kmoore307
Then there are also lines like Boston, which probably won't get any cheaper than -210 or -205 tomorrow other than if there's a big injury report. 77% (prior to the refresh on moneypuck) but even still, that's 8% edge.. when projections refresh it usually won't be more than 3-4% either way. So this is a game I'm looking at for regulation or puck line right now.
Try and maximize value where I can. Sometimes I wait and line moves in my favor, sometimes it doesn't. I don't necessarily lock in opening line unless it's obvious value and edge, nor do I wait exclusively for closing line.
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@rustie
Lol yeah..
Try and maximize value where I can. Sometimes I wait and line moves in my favor, sometimes it doesn't. I don't necessarily lock in opening line unless it's obvious value and edge, nor do I wait exclusively for closing line.
Are you looking ahead to games tomorrow already Peel? Seeing over 10% edge on Stars at -145 and assuming Otter will be back in Net as well. Would you play something like that this early? Can't imagine the line will get any better...
"You either quit or keep going. They both hurt."
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Are you looking ahead to games tomorrow already Peel? Seeing over 10% edge on Stars at -145 and assuming Otter will be back in Net as well. Would you play something like that this early? Can't imagine the line will get any better...
Sounds good. I wrote down Stars, Devils, Kings, and Bruins so far and already locked in Stars -1 (+108). Look forward to seeing what you decide to play as well.
"You either quit or keep going. They both hurt."
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@peelpub94
Sounds good. I wrote down Stars, Devils, Kings, and Bruins so far and already locked in Stars -1 (+108). Look forward to seeing what you decide to play as well.
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