You very well could still be on the right side here Peel. I can't figure this one out. I'm also conflicted because I originally wanted to take the Avs ML (mainly w/ Georgiev) but once he was out I started thinkin maybe I would just tail you on the Edge play. Now I'm just so confused but this whole matchup that I decided to just back out. Devils definitely could still take this one down though.
"You either quit or keep going. They both hurt."
0
@peelpub94
You very well could still be on the right side here Peel. I can't figure this one out. I'm also conflicted because I originally wanted to take the Avs ML (mainly w/ Georgiev) but once he was out I started thinkin maybe I would just tail you on the Edge play. Now I'm just so confused but this whole matchup that I decided to just back out. Devils definitely could still take this one down though.
Yeah I hear ya. I guess Francouz is dropping the line - personally, I think there isn't a 15-cent difference between Georgiev starting or Francouz, but maybe that's what Vegas wants the public to believe. I won't be watching much if any, hosting poker tonight! Gut feeling, the Devils aren't cut out for this kind of team just yet, but we'll see!
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@Kmoore307
Yeah I hear ya. I guess Francouz is dropping the line - personally, I think there isn't a 15-cent difference between Georgiev starting or Francouz, but maybe that's what Vegas wants the public to believe. I won't be watching much if any, hosting poker tonight! Gut feeling, the Devils aren't cut out for this kind of team just yet, but we'll see!
Maybe you guys can help. Just saw a comment elsewhere saying Avs are getting 87% of the tickets and 91% of the money. First of all - is that true? Everyone on Colorado but the line is moving towards The Devils? Just want to separate fact from fiction.
0
Maybe you guys can help. Just saw a comment elsewhere saying Avs are getting 87% of the tickets and 91% of the money. First of all - is that true? Everyone on Colorado but the line is moving towards The Devils? Just want to separate fact from fiction.
Reading with interest your thoughts on the COL @ NJD line. Something else to consider...the books may be managing this line themselves, as opposed to just taking on all comers. Books aren't averse to managing their money trying to enhance their profits besides collecting their vig.
The Avs are always big favorites with the bettors; especially home but away also they travel well (with the bettors). They've been road faves twice this season and won both (MIN,NYR), so the basic vig coming in off those wins. They've been road dogs twice this season at very short +money and split the games losing @CGY and winning @VGK. Home faves three times this season: the banner raising W, but then 2 home losses a day apart to WPG (from -215 to -220) and SEA (-250 to -235 and everything in between).
The banner-raising W cost the books a big chunk of change as the Avs were getting 70-80-90% of the bets. They made most of that back when the Avs took those two Ls as home faves anywhere from -215 to -250 if you look at both games. 90%+ Avs bettors vs WPG and 90% early vs SEA until the money evened out later to around 50/50. So the books had to pay out +200 to around 10% of the tickets, but they recovered a lot of the payouts on those two Avs home losses.
So a case could be made that the books have to watch the Avs games a little closer because the % of bettors will always be skewed way higher to the COL side. And when they're on the road, that's where a little management might be needed. The Avs as road faves are naturally gonna cause the home dogs to be attractive plays (even if not value plays) and COL is gonna lose around 20-25 games if you include OTLs and SOs. With 80-90% of bettors on the Avs most of the season, the books can't take their eye off 'em for too long if they want to have a profit on them at the end of the season. They know COL is gonna win 50+ games this year, and probably 30+ at home, so they're gonna be paying out a lot of bucks to Avs bettors (but any big home losses like the two they've already had will help for sure).
If the books are thinking about the Devils heating up and Vanacek back in goal, and Francouz in net for the Avs, they can have a nice payday if NJD pulls the upset because they have 90%/80% basically of the $$ and tickets. What better game situation than to manage this line a bit by keeping it frozen around -123 to -127 (now) to encourage the Avs bettors to keep pounding it. Books gotta figure the odds are COL wins as a short fave, but there's a nice payday profit out there if things go the way they'd like, and by holding down the ML they can turn a nice penny. Just a possibility as to why it's been kinda sketchy all day.
Cheers Guys
1
@peelpub94...@KMoore307
Hey Guys,
Reading with interest your thoughts on the COL @ NJD line. Something else to consider...the books may be managing this line themselves, as opposed to just taking on all comers. Books aren't averse to managing their money trying to enhance their profits besides collecting their vig.
The Avs are always big favorites with the bettors; especially home but away also they travel well (with the bettors). They've been road faves twice this season and won both (MIN,NYR), so the basic vig coming in off those wins. They've been road dogs twice this season at very short +money and split the games losing @CGY and winning @VGK. Home faves three times this season: the banner raising W, but then 2 home losses a day apart to WPG (from -215 to -220) and SEA (-250 to -235 and everything in between).
The banner-raising W cost the books a big chunk of change as the Avs were getting 70-80-90% of the bets. They made most of that back when the Avs took those two Ls as home faves anywhere from -215 to -250 if you look at both games. 90%+ Avs bettors vs WPG and 90% early vs SEA until the money evened out later to around 50/50. So the books had to pay out +200 to around 10% of the tickets, but they recovered a lot of the payouts on those two Avs home losses.
So a case could be made that the books have to watch the Avs games a little closer because the % of bettors will always be skewed way higher to the COL side. And when they're on the road, that's where a little management might be needed. The Avs as road faves are naturally gonna cause the home dogs to be attractive plays (even if not value plays) and COL is gonna lose around 20-25 games if you include OTLs and SOs. With 80-90% of bettors on the Avs most of the season, the books can't take their eye off 'em for too long if they want to have a profit on them at the end of the season. They know COL is gonna win 50+ games this year, and probably 30+ at home, so they're gonna be paying out a lot of bucks to Avs bettors (but any big home losses like the two they've already had will help for sure).
If the books are thinking about the Devils heating up and Vanacek back in goal, and Francouz in net for the Avs, they can have a nice payday if NJD pulls the upset because they have 90%/80% basically of the $$ and tickets. What better game situation than to manage this line a bit by keeping it frozen around -123 to -127 (now) to encourage the Avs bettors to keep pounding it. Books gotta figure the odds are COL wins as a short fave, but there's a nice payday profit out there if things go the way they'd like, and by holding down the ML they can turn a nice penny. Just a possibility as to why it's been kinda sketchy all day.
@peelpub94...@KMoore307 Hey Guys, Reading with interest your thoughts on the COL @ NJD line. Something else to consider...the books may be managing this line themselves, as opposed to just taking on all comers. Books aren't averse to managing their money trying to enhance their profits besides collecting their vig. The Avs are always big favorites with the bettors; especially home but away also they travel well (with the bettors). They've been road faves twice this season and won both (MIN,NYR), so the basic vig coming in off those wins. They've been road dogs twice this season at very short +money and split the games losing @CGY and winning @VGK. Home faves three times this season: the banner raising W, but then 2 home losses a day apart to WPG (from -215 to -220) and SEA (-250 to -235 and everything in between). The banner-raising W cost the books a big chunk of change as the Avs were getting 70-80-90% of the bets. They made most of that back when the Avs took those two Ls as home faves anywhere from -215 to -250 if you look at both games. 90%+ Avs bettors vs WPG and 90% early vs SEA until the money evened out later to around 50/50. So the books had to pay out +200 to around 10% of the tickets, but they recovered a lot of the payouts on those two Avs home losses. So a case could be made that the books have to watch the Avs games a little closer because the % of bettors will always be skewed way higher to the COL side. And when they're on the road, that's where a little management might be needed. The Avs as road faves are naturally gonna cause the home dogs to be attractive plays (even if not value plays) and COL is gonna lose around 20-25 games if you include OTLs and SOs. With 80-90% of bettors on the Avs most of the season, the books can't take their eye off 'em for too long if they want to have a profit on them at the end of the season. They know COL is gonna win 50+ games this year, and probably 30+ at home, so they're gonna be paying out a lot of bucks to Avs bettors (but any big home losses like the two they've already had will help for sure). If the books are thinking about the Devils heating up and Vanacek back in goal, and Francouz in net for the Avs, they can have a nice payday if NJD pulls the upset because they have 90%/80% basically of the $$ and tickets. What better game situation than to manage this line a bit by keeping it frozen around -123 to -127 (now) to encourage the Avs bettors to keep pounding it. Books gotta figure the odds are COL wins as a short fave, but there's a nice payday profit out there if things go the way they'd like, and by holding down the ML they can turn a nice penny. Just a possibility as to why it's been kinda sketchy all day. Cheers Guys
This right here. Post of the year in my books. Well said, awesome insight. Everyone should digest this.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DB51daBEARS:
@peelpub94...@KMoore307 Hey Guys, Reading with interest your thoughts on the COL @ NJD line. Something else to consider...the books may be managing this line themselves, as opposed to just taking on all comers. Books aren't averse to managing their money trying to enhance their profits besides collecting their vig. The Avs are always big favorites with the bettors; especially home but away also they travel well (with the bettors). They've been road faves twice this season and won both (MIN,NYR), so the basic vig coming in off those wins. They've been road dogs twice this season at very short +money and split the games losing @CGY and winning @VGK. Home faves three times this season: the banner raising W, but then 2 home losses a day apart to WPG (from -215 to -220) and SEA (-250 to -235 and everything in between). The banner-raising W cost the books a big chunk of change as the Avs were getting 70-80-90% of the bets. They made most of that back when the Avs took those two Ls as home faves anywhere from -215 to -250 if you look at both games. 90%+ Avs bettors vs WPG and 90% early vs SEA until the money evened out later to around 50/50. So the books had to pay out +200 to around 10% of the tickets, but they recovered a lot of the payouts on those two Avs home losses. So a case could be made that the books have to watch the Avs games a little closer because the % of bettors will always be skewed way higher to the COL side. And when they're on the road, that's where a little management might be needed. The Avs as road faves are naturally gonna cause the home dogs to be attractive plays (even if not value plays) and COL is gonna lose around 20-25 games if you include OTLs and SOs. With 80-90% of bettors on the Avs most of the season, the books can't take their eye off 'em for too long if they want to have a profit on them at the end of the season. They know COL is gonna win 50+ games this year, and probably 30+ at home, so they're gonna be paying out a lot of bucks to Avs bettors (but any big home losses like the two they've already had will help for sure). If the books are thinking about the Devils heating up and Vanacek back in goal, and Francouz in net for the Avs, they can have a nice payday if NJD pulls the upset because they have 90%/80% basically of the $$ and tickets. What better game situation than to manage this line a bit by keeping it frozen around -123 to -127 (now) to encourage the Avs bettors to keep pounding it. Books gotta figure the odds are COL wins as a short fave, but there's a nice payday profit out there if things go the way they'd like, and by holding down the ML they can turn a nice penny. Just a possibility as to why it's been kinda sketchy all day. Cheers Guys
This right here. Post of the year in my books. Well said, awesome insight. Everyone should digest this.
Good luck Peel, I'm on the same Dal, and Kings, can't bring myself to pull the trigger on the Habs at this point although +1.5 @ 1.925 seems enticing ?
Thoughts?
Rust never sleeps
0
Good luck Peel, I'm on the same Dal, and Kings, can't bring myself to pull the trigger on the Habs at this point although +1.5 @ 1.925 seems enticing ?
Good luck Peel, I'm on the same Dal, and Kings, can't bring myself to pull the trigger on the Habs at this point although +1.5 @ 1.925 seems enticing ? Thoughts?
Not wild about any of these because they all feel like they're going the other way. Sometimes my read is right, and sometimes it's not, which is why I do what I do and play the system :)
I think if STL wins, they win big. If MTL wins, they squeak it out.
0
Quote Originally Posted by rustie:
Good luck Peel, I'm on the same Dal, and Kings, can't bring myself to pull the trigger on the Habs at this point although +1.5 @ 1.925 seems enticing ? Thoughts?
Not wild about any of these because they all feel like they're going the other way. Sometimes my read is right, and sometimes it's not, which is why I do what I do and play the system :)
I think if STL wins, they win big. If MTL wins, they squeak it out.
Best of Luck today Peel, yesterday went well! LA and Montreal pulling out the wins (although I did wimp out and play the +1.5 on the Habs). Just about to look at todays games, but I trust NJ is a system play?
Rust never sleeps
0
Best of Luck today Peel, yesterday went well! LA and Montreal pulling out the wins (although I did wimp out and play the +1.5 on the Habs). Just about to look at todays games, but I trust NJ is a system play?
Best of Luck today Peel, yesterday went well! LA and Montreal pulling out the wins (although I did wimp out and play the +1.5 on the Habs). Just about to look at todays games, but I trust NJ is a system play?
Thanks rust. 99% of what I post are purely system plays. Battled between regulation and -1, and that's where I landed.
0
Quote Originally Posted by rustie:
Best of Luck today Peel, yesterday went well! LA and Montreal pulling out the wins (although I did wimp out and play the +1.5 on the Habs). Just about to look at todays games, but I trust NJ is a system play?
Thanks rust. 99% of what I post are purely system plays. Battled between regulation and -1, and that's where I landed.
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